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LCB Market Brief – 6 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
• Brent Crude: $101.52/bbl, down 7.60% — sharply lower on improving diplomatic signals
• Coal (API2 May): $105.50/mt — weaker, tracking energy downside
• Coal (API4 May): $111.50/mt — relatively supported, though softer
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.80/mt, down 0.14% — firm, with strong underlying support
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,372/mt, up 1.81% — higher, supported by sentiment and structure
• Chrome Concentrate (40–42% CIF China): $318/mt — stable, with subdued demand

What Matters Today
• Energy markets softened sharply on improving diplomatic signals around U.S.–Iran negotiations
• Oil and gas led the move lower, while bulk and base metals showed mixed resilience
• Coal tracked energy weakness, while iron ore and copper remained supported by fundamentals
• Markets remain highly headline-driven, with pricing sensitive to negotiation outcomes

Coal
Coal markets declined in line with the broader energy complex, following a sharp bearish reaction to reports that Iran is reviewing a U.S.-proposed peace framework.
Brent crude and European gas both fell significantly intraday, with losses of around 12% at the lows before recovering into the close. Despite the rebound, both markets ended materially weaker, dragging coal prices lower. API2 led declines, falling by close to $6 after trading at even lower levels earlier in the session.
Coal continues to track energy directionally, with limited independent momentum in the current environment. While underlying demand remains stable, price action is being driven almost entirely by developments in the broader energy complex.

Coal Curves
• API2: Sharply lower, reflecting Atlantic basin exposure to energy sentiment
• API4: Softer, though relatively more resilient
• Spread: Continues to reflect regional demand and freight dynamics

Trade Insight
• Markets are increasingly trading on binary geopolitical outcomes
• Coal remains a derivative of oil and gas direction in the short term
• Metals are showing resilience due to cost support and supply absorption
• Price direction across the complex hinges on credible progress in negotiations

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets fell sharply, with Brent declining below $103/bbl as optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement weighed on prices.
The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal and a response expected via regional intermediaries. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to price direction.
Despite the softer sentiment, physical flows remain constrained. The U.S. has indicated a pause in its naval escort programme, but shipping volumes through the Strait are still well below normal levels, and supply disruption persists. Inventories continue to absorb part of the shock, maintaining a degree of structural tightness.
Near-term price direction will be driven by negotiation outcomes. A confirmed agreement could trigger a sharp correction as supply returns, while any breakdown in talks would likely see a rapid rebound in prices.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices rose sharply, supported by continued destocking and absorption of previously restricted port inventories. Demand remains relatively firm, with steel production still operating at elevated levels despite some moderation in pig iron output. Rising costs and tightening margins may cap further upside, though near-term support remains intact.
Copper
Copper moved higher, holding above $13,000/t as sentiment improved. However, elevated inventories and softer demand signals—particularly in China—are limiting upside. The market remains balanced between structural support and near-term demand uncertainty, with pricing driven by both macro developments and inventory trends.
Chrome Ore
Chrome markets were broadly stable, with spot prices unchanged and futures supported by cost pressures. Post-holiday demand remains subdued, with high inventories weighing on sentiment. In the near term, the market is expected to remain sideways, balancing firm costs against cautious buying.

Market Regime
Diplomatic-driven correction / Softer energy / Supported bulk / Resilient metals

Closing View
Markets are entering a critical phase, with pricing increasingly driven by expectations around a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The sharp correction in energy highlights the sensitivity of markets to shifts in perceived supply risk.
Despite this, underlying structural tightness across energy and industrial inputs remains in place, providing continued support to bulk and base metals. Until there is definitive clarity on the outcome of negotiations and the normalisation of supply flows, markets are likely to remain volatile, with price direction dictated by geopolitical developments rather than purely fundamental drivers.

London Commodity News

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23rd March 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: March API2 $121.00/mt ; March API4 $110.50/mt
Brent Crude: $103.42/bll Down 7.82%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.45/mt Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,120.50/mt Up 1.60%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,896.00/mt Up 0.05%
Mn Ore South Africa (Mn42% Fe12%) _ $5.23/mtu CIF North China Down 0.38%_

_Global commodity markets saw a sharp shift in tone today, as geopolitical tensions showed early signs of easing, triggering significant moves across energy, metals, and bulk commodities.

Coal
Another volatile session saw energy markets open stronger, driven by renewed US escalation rhetoric over the weekend, with gas prices rising around 5% and lending support to coal. Sentiment shifted sharply by midday, however, as indications emerged that negotiations between the US and Iran were becoming more likely, prompting a broad reversal across markets.
Oil and gas prices fell back significantly into the close, while equity markets rallied on the improved outlook. Front-month Brent crude declined by nearly 10%, European gas dropped around 5%, and coal swaps followed suit, weakening across the curve.

Brent Crude
Oil markets led the move, with prices plunging after recent gains driven by the US–Iran conflict. Brent and WTI both fell over 14% during Monday’s session after US President Donald Trump indicated that talks with Iran had been “constructive” and confirmed a five-day pause on planned strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. The announcement eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which had been closed amid escalating hostilities. Despite the sharp correction—Brent briefly dropping below $100/bbl for the first time since mid-March—prices remain significantly elevated on the month. Earlier interventions, including strategic reserve releases and sanctions relief on Iranian and Russian crude, had done little to stabilise markets, underscoring how sensitive oil remains to geopolitical developments.

Iron Ore
Iron ore markets were firmer, with Dalian futures rising modestly and the most active contract settling at 819 RMB/tonne. Spot prices also edged higher, although trading activity remained subdued as steel mills continued to procure cautiously. On the supply side, global shipments increased slightly, while arrivals into China declined, helping to ease the previously oversupplied market. At the same time, improving blast furnace utilisation is supporting demand, lending a more constructive tone to fundamentals. However, uncertainty persists around long-term contract negotiations, keeping investors on the sidelines. In the near term, prices are expected to remain volatile but supported at elevated levels.

Copper
Copper rebounded as the easing of geopolitical risk lifted broader market sentiment. Prices rose sharply in early trading following Trump’s announcement, before paring gains amid conflicting reports from Iran. The metal, often viewed as a proxy for global economic health, had recently come under pressure due to concerns around growth and inflation stemming from the conflict. However, underlying demand signals—particularly from China—are improving, with inventories posting their largest weekly drawdown of the year. This suggests that recent price weakness has stimulated buying interest, providing a degree of support despite ongoing macro uncertainty.

Lead
Lead markets remain subdued, with prices continuing to trade at low levels. On the supply side, primary producers have shown limited willingness to sell, while secondary producers are holding firm due to cost pressures, resulting in generally thin market activity. Demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers largely purchasing only against long-term contracts and showing little appetite for spot exposure. While firm scrap costs and producer discipline are providing some downside support, seasonal demand softness and weak macro conditions are capping any upside. Prices are expected to remain rangebound at low levels in the near term.

Manganese
In contrast, the manganese complex continues to strengthen. Rising freight costs, fuel shortages in South Africa, fiscal changes in Ghana, and potential weather disruptions in Australia are all tightening supply expectations and reinforcing bullish sentiment. This has fed through to the silicomanganese market, where prices remain firm, supported by rising input costs and disciplined production. While northern Chinese output is gradually increasing, high power costs and margin pressures in the south are limiting broader supply growth. With steel demand improving seasonally and upstream cost pressures persisting, both manganese ore and alloy markets are expected to remain well supported in the short term.

Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with sentiment shifting rapidly as headlines evolve. While today’s moves suggest some easing of immediate risks, underlying supply constraints and cost pressures across several commodities continue to point to a structurally firm pricing environment.

London Commodity News

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12th January 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.00/mt, January API4 $88.50/mt
Brent Crude: $63.63/bll – Up 0.47%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $108.20/mt – Down 0.46%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,203/mt – Up 1.46%
Chrome Ore, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $269.00/mt CIF China
Manganese Ore, South African (Mn42%Fe12%) $4.85/dmtu CIF North China
LME 3-Month Lead $2,059/mt – Up 0.46%

Markets opened the week with a cautious tone as investors weighed easing geopolitical fears against firm demand signals across key industrial and energy markets. While oil gave back some of last week’s gains, metals continued to find support from Chinese policy expectations and tightening physical fundamentals.

Coal
Coal swaps saw a quieter session, with API2 ending largely unchanged after finding some modest support earlier in the day. European gas prices moved higher and remain volatile, providing a contrasting backdrop to the more stable coal market.
Newcastle (NEWC) swaps edged slightly firmer, although the physical Newcastle market remained steady. API4 swaps also held their recent gains, ending the session broadly unchanged.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower as Iran signalled that domestic unrest was “under total control,” easing immediate fears of supply disruption after a volatile weekend. This tempered some of the risk premium that had driven a strong rally late last week, when Brent and WTI rose more than 3%. At the same time, attention shifted to Venezuela, where preparations are under way to resume exports following political change, with up to 50 million barrels expected to be transferred to the United States. Despite this, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains supportive. U.S. officials are considering further options on Iran, while Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure keep the risk of tighter sanctions alive. Goldman Sachs still expects oil prices to drift lower through 2026 on rising supply and swelling OECD inventories, but analysts at Capital Economics warn that any serious disruption to Iranian exports could trigger a sharp, albeit temporary, $15–$20 per barrel spike.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures firmed modestly, with the most-traded Dalian contract closing up 0.92% at CNY822.5/mt , while spot prices rose slightly. Trading activity remained moderate, with steel mills largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, even as traders offered material at firmer levels. Supply dynamics remain mixed. Global shipments fell sharply week-on-week, but arrivals at China’s main ports increased, keeping inventories elevated. Looking ahead, the start of pre-Lunar New Year restocking should provide downside support, though ample port stocks are likely to cap any sharp upside, leaving prices oscillating near current high levels.

Copper (LME)
Copper extended its rebound, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing optimism around Chinese demand. Shanghai copper jumped nearly 3% and LME three-month copper climbed above $13,150 per tonne, remaining close to last week’s record highs after Beijing signalled fresh fiscal and financial measures to stimulate domestic consumption. Additional support came from supply-side concerns, including lower output at Chile’s Codelco, and continued merger speculation following Rio Tinto’s talks with Glencore. Broader base metals also benefited from the softer dollar, with nickel and tin posting strong gains on supply and demand concerns.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices continued to rise as higher futures levels and stronger South African concentrate prices lifted ferrochrome production costs. Improved profitability at stainless steel mills and higher January production schedules provided a solid base for demand, reinforcing price support across major origins. Trading activity was firm as winter stockpiling gathered pace and rising futures offers boosted sentiment. Policy changes in Zimbabwe have tightened supply, particularly for concentrates, while lump ore remained well supported by limited availability. Futures prices moved higher again, underlining a positive short-term market bias.

Manganese
Manganese ore markets remained well supported by rising overseas offers, with major miners lifting February prices to China. Stronger international pricing fed through to higher domestic spot values, while SiMn futures strength improved sentiment and encouraged buying interest from alloy producers. However, the picture remains uneven. While northern Chinese demand was steady, southern buyers stayed cautious, leading to rising inventories at Qinzhou Port as arrivals outpaced consumption. Prices are likely to remain firm in the near term, but persistent weakness in southern demand and growing port stocks could eventually trigger a corrective pullback.

Lead
Some smelters kept scrap battery purchase prices steady or slightly higher to secure feedstock, while suppliers became more willing to sell after a period of reluctance. Large smelters in central and eastern China reported relatively comfortable arrivals, easing immediate raw-material concerns. However, downstream battery demand remains weak as end-market sales continue to struggle, pushing operating rates lower and limiting lead ingot procurement. As a result, finished lead inventories are building at both primary and secondary smelters, which is likely to cap any near-term price recovery and raises the risk of further pressure after the next delivery cycle.

Overall, commodity markets continue to be driven by a blend of geopolitical risk, Chinese stimulus expectations and tightening supply in key raw materials. While volatility remains elevated, underlying fundamentals across metals and energy suggest prices will stay supported in the near term.

London Commodity News

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23rd December 2025


Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96/mt API4 $89/mt
Brent Crude: $61.62/bll – Down 0.72%
Iron Ore: $106.95/mt – Down 0.14%
LME 3-month copper: $12,064/mt – Up 1.28%

Markets opened the session with a cautious tone, as participants balanced fresh geopolitical developments against a broader backdrop of uneven demand and ample forward supply. Energy prices softened slightly after recent gains, while metals remained supported by supply-side constraints and positioning flows.

Coal
Price action and volatility were more subdued today, with NEWC swaps showing slight weakness and API2 ending largely unchanged. A similar pattern was seen across the wider energy complex, with both European gas prices and oil finishing the session close to flat.

Brent Crude
Oil prices eased modestly in early Tuesday trade after surging more than 2% in the previous session. Brent slipped to $61.96/bbl and WTI to $57.88/bbl, as markets digested comments from the U.S. indicating it may sell—or retain—Venezuelan crude seized in recent weeks. The move follows Washington’s tightening pressure on Caracas, including restrictions on sanctioned tankers.
Supply risks remain elevated amid renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, particularly around Black Sea export infrastructure. Russian strikes damaged facilities and a vessel in Odesa, while Ukrainian drone attacks hit vessels and piers in Russia’s Krasnodar region, with continued focus on disrupting Russia’s shadow tanker fleet.
Despite these risks, sentiment remains tempered by expectations of ample supply into early 2026. Barclays noted that even a near-term halt to Venezuelan exports would likely leave the market well supplied in H1 2026, though a prolonged disruption could tighten balances later in the year by eroding inventories.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices held near CNY 780/mt, extending a rebound from five-month lows as reduced output from major suppliers offset a muted demand environment. Chinese mills faced restricted feedstock options following bans on certain BHP-origin fines under CMRG rules, while slightly improved steel margins helped lift hot metal production modestly from September lows.
However, broader sentiment remains weak. China’s construction PMI contracted for a fourth consecutive month, and renewed stress in the property sector—highlighted by concerns around Vanke—continued to weigh on demand expectations. In western Liaoning, concentrate prices were largely stable, though trading activity remained thin as mills resisted higher prices amid uncertain outlooks. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile but rangebound in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper traded in record territory today, blasting past the $12,000/mt level as supply disruptions and tariff-driven trade flows sustained the rally. LME prices hovered around $12,025/mt at last look, with year-to-date gains approaching 37%, marking the strongest annual performance since 2009.
The rally has been driven largely by expectations that copper will continue to flow into the U.S., tightening availability elsewhere, rather than by a clear improvement in global demand. Some analysts caution that end-user consumption remains subdued, though strong market sentiment and supply-side constraints continue to underpin prices in the near term.

Overall, markets remain finely balanced between headline-driven supply risks and structurally soft demand signals. With inventories, geopolitical developments, and trade flows dominating price action, near-term volatility is likely to persist as participants remain cautious about the sustainability of recent moves.

London Commodity News

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19th December 2025


Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.33/bll – Up 0.84%
Iron Ore: $107.15/mt – Down 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,876.50/mt – Up 0.88%
LME 3-month lead: $1,987/mt – Up 1.22%
South African Manganese Ore 42%Mn12%Fe CIF China: $4.66/mtu
South African Chrome Ore 40-42%Cr CIF China: $264/mt

Markets closed the session with a cautious but orderly tone, as participants balanced near-term supply risks against softer demand signals and a growing focus on inventories and positioning into year-end. Price action was largely driven by fundamentals rather than sentiment shifts.

Coal
Coal swap price action was fairly subdued today, despite continued support in European gas markets, where front-end contracts rose more than 2% from relatively low levels. The physical Newcastle market saw more aggressive offers, though NEWC swaps still ended the session largely unchanged.

Brent Crude
Oil futures finished higher as the market weighed Venezuelan supply risks against the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine resolution and expectations of significant oversupply in 2026. While potential disruptions to Venezuelan exports offer some support, analysts continue to view these risks as modest relative to the scale of surplus likely to emerge if Russian supply normalises. The more pressing concern remains inventories: crude held at sea has risen to around 1.3 billion barrels, the highest level since April 2020, with slow-moving tankers signalling difficulty in clearing excess supply. With OPEC+ and non-OPEC output still rising, inventory dynamics are expected to be the dominant driver of prices in the months ahead.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher, with the I2605 contract closing at RMB 780, up 0.52%. Despite the uptick, fundamentals remain soft. Maintenance at northern Chinese steel mills reduced hot metal output and port pick-up volumes, leading to continued inventory accumulation at ports. Safety inspections in some regions tightened spot availability, offering limited price support, but steel mills maintained disciplined, demand-led restocking under strict cost controls. Overall trading activity remained subdued, and prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper posted modest gains and was on track for a weekly rise, supported by renewed focus on structural supply constraints. Goldman Sachs reiterated its long-term bullish view, citing limited mine expansion and robust demand growth, while near-term gains were capped by a firmer U.S. dollar. Market participants continue to view copper as fundamentally well supported, though some caution that prices near $12,000 may struggle to extend further without stronger demand confirmation.

*Manganese&
The manganese ore market remained firm, underpinned by rising overseas offers for January 2026 shipments and strong cost support. Supply conditions were tight for several mainstream ore types, with traders holding prices firm. Demand showed regional divergence: northern SiMn producers maintained relatively active purchasing on expectations of production restarts, while southern producers remained in off-season mode, buying strictly on demand. Port inventories were mixed, with Tianjin balanced and Qinzhou elevated. Overall, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with downstream alloy demand the key variable to monitor.

Lead
Lead supply increased slightly as some primary smelters resumed operations, but falling prices encouraged downstream buyers to purchase on dips. Year-end cash-flow needs prompted active selling, reducing smelter inventories. Transport restrictions in parts of China delayed deliveries, which may further tighten visible inventories once lifted. In the secondary market, lower prices reduced selling appetite, narrowing discounts to near parity. Spot market activity remained light, with most demand covered via long-term contracts.

Chrome
Chrome ore trading activity improved as earlier low-priced material was largely cleared. Traders showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, while ferrochrome producers gradually returned to the market, easing counteroffer pressure. Stable overseas mine quotations, including flat pricing for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt, helped offset weaker steel tender prices and supported confidence. Phased restocking ahead of future demand led to more concentrated transactions. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with attention on upcoming steel mill bidding outcomes.

Overall, markets remain finely balanced between surplus-driven pressure and pockets of structural support. With inventories, restocking behaviour, and cost discipline dominating decision-making, price action is likely to stay measured and rangebound as the year draws to a close.

London Commodity News

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12th December 2025

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.75/mt
Brent Crude: $61.00/bll – Down 0.46%
Iron Ore: $105.40/mt – Up 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,545/mt – Down 2.67%
LME 3-month lead: $1,974.50/mt – Down 0.70%

Global commodity markets closed the week with a cautious and mixed tone, as surplus concerns in energy offset pockets of support across bulk commodities and base metals. Price action remained largely fundamentals-driven, with traders balancing near-term oversupply against selective demand resilience and policy signals.

Coal
Despite a strong 3% rise in European gas prices, API2 swaps were largely unchanged on the day. In contrast, the FOB markets for API4 and NEWC softened, as physical offers in South Africa and Newcastle edged slightly lower.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower on Friday and were set for a weekly decline, with attention focused on a growing supply glut and the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which overshadowed concerns around Venezuelan supply risks. Brent is down more than 4% on the week, reflecting a market where supply continues to exceed demand and any price rebounds are likely to be short-lived. The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year, while OPEC expects supply and demand to be more closely balanced in 2026. Some support remains from rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, though these factors have so far failed to materially shift sentiment.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded rangebound, with the DCE I2605 contract closing at 760.5, down 0.33% on the day. New discussions around port storage fee regulations unsettled the market, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure, particularly among non-mainstream traders. With macro drivers largely played out and fundamentals still weak, iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure and trade in the doldrums into next week.

Copper (LME)
Copper eased after briefly approaching the $12,000 per tonne mark, as elevated prices began to test demand, though the metal remained on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Supply disruptions are expected to keep a floor around $11,000/tonne, but further upside will depend on stronger demand, especially from China. ANZ maintains a constructive longer-term view, expecting prices to stay above $11,000 in 2026 and potentially approach $12,000 by year-end. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories edged 0.5% higher to 89,389 tonnes, and Chinese policymakers reiterated commitments to a proactive fiscal stance in 2026.

Lead (LME)
Lead prices remained soft in the spot market, with slightly higher week-on-week supply and downstream buyers sticking to cautious, just-in-time procurement. Regional pricing was mixed: #1 lead traded around parity to small discounts in Henan, while tighter smelter inventories in Hunan supported modest premiums. Secondary refined lead discounts were largely unchanged, and overall spot activity stayed subdued. Structurally, the global lead market is entering a tighter, more balanced phase. Growth in primary supply is constrained by declining ore grades and mining limits, while recycled lead continues to gain share but is capped by raw-material collection bottlenecks. Smelters are increasingly reliant on secondary lead, investing in efficiency and compliance to manage rising costs. Demand remains anchored by lead-acid batteries, with emerging energy-storage applications still at an early stage. Shifting trade policies and regulatory requirements are adding friction to cross-border flows, reinforcing a market increasingly driven by supply constraints rather than demand expansion.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices stabilised and rebounded modestly this week as earlier oversold conditions encouraged traders to hold back supply and ferrochrome producers gradually resumed purchasing. Flat overseas futures quotations for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt supported sentiment and improved trading activity. However, ongoing stainless steel production cuts continue to cap demand, limiting upside potential. Market focus remains on offshore futures pricing and the pace of ferrochrome procurement.
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%): $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% min): $225/mt CIF China

Manganese
The manganese ore market remained firm, with prices rising across most grades and particularly strong gains in high-grade material. On the supply side, major miners lifted or held January 2026 offers, reinforcing bullish expectations. Traders kept offers firm, especially for scarce high-grade oxide ore, while South African material showed more mixed price movement due to steadier supply. Demand was mixed regionally. Northern SiMn producers showed strong buying interest ahead of expected restarts in Inner Mongolia, supporting prices for Australian and Gabonese lumps. In contrast, southern alloy plants operated at lower rates and bought mainly on a spot-need basis. Overall, manganese ore prices moved higher on firm supply and expectations, though weak downstream demand has started to weigh on some grades. The market remains elevated for now, with sustainability dependent on alloy-plant demand.
SA Manganese Ore (42%Mn12%Fe): $4.67/mtu CIF China
SA Manganese Ore (36%Mn20%Fe): $3.78/mtu CIF China

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain rangebound and reactive, with supply dynamics continuing to dominate sentiment. Attention will stay focused on demand indicators, policy developments, and year-end positioning as participants assess whether emerging support can offset ongoing structural pressures.

London Commodity News

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21st November 2025

Commodity markets traded under mixed pressure today, with crude extending its decline, gas markets turning more volatile into winter, and industrial metals responding to shifting macro signals. Sentiment remained driven by geopolitics, weather risk, and uncertainty around upcoming economic data.

Coal

There was more pronounced weakness across the complex today, with parts of the API2 curve falling over $2, alongside sharp declines in European gas and oil. Short-dated European gas dropped nearly 3%, while front-month Brent crude fell close to 2%. The physical Newcastle market remained quiet and showed reduced support, contributing to further softness in NEWC swaps.

Brent Crude
Crude prices extended their decline on expectations of rising oversupply, easing geopolitical risk, and a firmer U.S. dollar. Reports of progress toward a U.S.-supported Russia-Ukraine peace framework added further downside pressure as a ceasefire could bring more Russian supply back into the market. Near-term direction now rests on today’s flash PMIs across major economies and remarks from ECB President Lagarde. Weak numbers may fuel recession concerns, while stronger data could bolster the dollar and intensify pressure on crude. Limited support comes from expectations of Chinese housing stimulus and the reopening of the U.S. government.
Spot Brent at 16h37 GMT – $62.16/bll, Down 1.99%

European LNG
Gas markets are turning more volatile as winter begins. Europe still holds near-record storage, but colder forecasts for late November and early December and emerging logistical delays in LNG cargo movements have lifted risk premia. TTF had softened through October on mild weather and steady LNG inflows, but the outlook is tightening as colder conditions threaten to accelerate withdrawals and highlight how quickly the storage buffer can narrow. Delays caused by congestion and weather disruptions at loading points have also underscored the fragility of cargo rotation. As a result, TTF is trading with increased volatility despite strong inventories.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h40 GMT – €30.23/MWh, Down 1.48%

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures weakened, with I2601 down 0.32% to 788.5 yuan. Steel mill maintenance kept overall output high while consumption only edged up, leaving inventories elevated on a yearly basis. Sentiment remains cautious given ongoing concerns about inventory pressure. Hot-metal output has held up better than expected, limiting further downside, but the broader fundamentals remain soft. Prices are likely to stay under pressure and move within a choppy range.
_Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h37 GMT – $104.15/mt, Down 0.10%_

*Copper (LME)*
Copper fell to a two-week low as broader risk-off sentiment—driven by tech-sector weakness, crypto-market volatility, and uncertainty over a December U.S. rate cut—weighed on industrial metals. The delayed September U.S. jobs report offered mixed signals, with strong hiring but a higher jobless rate, leaving the Fed divided. A strong dollar added further pressure. Chinese demand remains subdued, reflected in the Yangshan premium sliding to $33/t from above $100/t in May.
LME 3-month copper at $16h30 GMT – $10,750.00/mt, Up 0.05%

Lead
The coming week will see reduced U.S. trading activity due to Thanksgiving, with attention on U.S. retail sales and the October core PCE index. Fed officials remain split on December policy after mixed employment data. LME lead inventories surged by over 40,000 mt this week, pushing stocks to a three-month high and triggering six consecutive daily declines in prices. Consumption remains weak, offering little support. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,960–2,020/mt next week.
In China, SHFE lead faces tight regional supply but muted battery demand. Procurement remains inconsistent, and destocking is limited. Prices are expected to remain subdued, with the main SHFE contract forecast at 17,000–17,400 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 17,000–17,250 yuan/mt, with primary smelters holding firm on offers due to low stocks, while secondary lead smelters maintain tight discounts amid squeezed margins.
LME 3-month lead at 16h30 GMT – $1988.50/mt, Down 1.14%

Chrome
South African 40–42% concentrate prices fell to $270–274/mt, with both futures and spot markets under pressure from weak downstream demand and high port inventories. Steel tender prices dipped slightly, prompting some inquiry activity, but overall buying interest remains limited. Zimbabwean ore offers are also squeezing South African pricing room. Despite high planned ferrochrome output providing some support, the imbalance between oversupply and weak demand persists. The market remains in a cautious, wait-and-see mode.

Chrome Ore South African（Cr2O3 40-42%）- $272/mt CIF China

Chrome Lump South African（Cr2O3 38%Min）- $245.50/mt CIF China

With macro indicators, currency strength, and seasonal fundamentals all in play, markets are likely to remain sensitive to incoming data and policy signals. Volatility across energy and metals is set to persist as traders reassess positioning heading into year-end.

*London Commodity News*17th July 2025

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*Coal*

Coal markets saw increased activity today, with further weakness in the API2 swaps, which fell around $1 across the curve. Softer European gas prices—down nearly 1%—and easing bids in the physical DES ARA market contributed to the downside. In contrast, physical Newcastle markets remained more stable, showing limited movement on the day.

*Brent Crude*
Front-month Brent rose early in the session, supported by tightening supply and safe-haven flows amid renewed Middle East tensions. The gains follow three consecutive days of drone strikes on oil facilities in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, shutting in around 150,000 bpd. No group has claimed responsibility, but Kurdistan officials suspect Iran-backed militias. Separately, Israeli airstrikes on Syria—targeting the defence ministry in Damascus and government forces in the south—have also fuelled haven demand. September Brent was trading $68.93, up 0.60% at 16h06 BST.

*European LNG*
Dutch TTF gas traded in a narrow range, as soft demand limited the market impact of planned and unplanned outages in Norway. Gassco revised its estimate for reduced output at the Kollsnes Gas Processing Plant, now expected to fall by more than 41.5 mcm/day. Meanwhile, gas storage in Europe stands at 63.49%—over 20% below the 2024 benchmark. On the political front, EU diplomats failed again to approve new sanctions on Russia, with Slovakia reportedly seeking exemptions related to gas supply. At last look, Dutch TTF Gas was €34.68/MWh, down 0.07%

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures climbed as improved steel mill margins and declining port inventories in China boosted sentiment. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, futures closed up 1.81% at CNY 785.5. Trading activity picked up, with mills buying moderately and speculators more active. Market confidence remains steady, helped by tight near-term supply and continued slight destocking in finished steel inventories. On SGX, August TSI 62% iron ore futures were up nearly 1% at $102.25/mt by 15:49 BST.

*Copper (LME)*
Copper edged lower in London ahead of a looming 50% U.S. tariff on copper imports, due 1 August. Trade talks are ongoing, with deals nearing finalisation with India and possibly Europe, while Canadian negotiations remain uncertain. Meanwhile, the LME began operating eight new warehouses in Hong Kong, receiving 5,975 tonnes of copper. This raised exchange inventories to 121,000 mt, reflecting increased market accessibility into China. LME 3-month copper slipped 0.06% to $9,625.50/mt at 15:47 BST.

*Chrome Ore*
The chrome ore market remained steady, with most participants awaiting the next round of steel tenders. Ferrochrome producers showed limited buying interest, having already met restocking needs and anticipating lower prices. Traders were slightly more active but cautious, buying only small volumes amid the unclear market outlook. Short-term stability is expected. South African 40–42% held firm at $265–270/mt.

*London Commodity News*

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22nd May 2025

*Coal*

Coal swap price action was fairly subdued today although the NEWC swaps did take a step lower during the morning before remaining relatively steady the rest of the day. API2 swaps were also slightly weaker during the day before recovering and ending close to unchanged. European gas prices, as well as oil prices, were fairly stable again, these ending close to unchanged also. Physical markets also did not provide too much direction.

*Brent Crude*
Crude oil prices extended their decline as OPEC+ confirmed plans to further unwind voluntary production cuts. The group, led by Saudi Arabia, intends to add a third tranche of 411,000 bpd in July—part of a phased return of 2.2 million bpd to the market. This shift from price support to market share growth comes amid signs of a slowing global economy, which is tilting the balance toward oversupply. Bearish sentiment was compounded by an unexpected build in U.S. inventories: the EIA reported a 1.3-million-barrel increase last week, against expectations of a 0.9-million-barrel draw. July Brent futures fell 1.20% to $64.15/bbl by 16h00 BST.

*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas prices edged higher amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty and tightening supply fundamentals. Dutch TTF gas futures climbed 0.8% to €36.32/MWh, supported by stalled ceasefire talks over Ukraine and unplanned maintenance at Norway’s Kollsnes gas processing facility. These factors are expected to constrain Norwegian flows in the near term. Meanwhile, weak Asian demand has diverted LNG cargoes toward Europe, though Southeast Asian buying interest is picking up. The IEA forecasts a 25% jump in European LNG imports in 2025, equivalent to 33 bcm, due to reduced pipeline supplies and growing demand. At last check, Dutch TTF was marginally higher at €36.52/MWh (+0.02%).

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices in China were rangebound, with traders weighing firm domestic demand against rising supply. Shipments from Australia and Brazil surged 11.7% last week to 27.1 million tonnes, according to Mysteel. On the DCE, the most-active September contract (I2509) closed up 0.14% at CNY 727. Demand for the five key steel products eased slightly, but inventory levels continued to fall. While a supply-demand imbalance is gradually emerging, current pressure remains limited. On the SGX, July TSI 62% Fe futures held steady at $98.30/ton.

*Copper*
Copper prices retreated as investors remained cautious about macroeconomic headwinds, particularly unresolved trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Although recent agreements have eased some concerns, tariffs of up to 30% on Chinese goods remain in place, with the deal set to expire in 90 days. Meanwhile, rising global inventories—including a steady increase in COMEX stocks—have added to bearish sentiment. While demand remains stable, supply conditions are no longer as tight. LME 3-month copper declined 0.52% to $9,489/mt at 16h10 BST.

LONDON COMMODITY NEWS

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27th February 2025

Coal

Despite the surge in gas prices, API2 coal swaps ended the day largely unchanged, highlighting the ongoing weakness in coal fundamentals, which have remained disconnected from gas market dynamics for some time. Meanwhile, Newcastle swaps, which had seen strong buying earlier in the week, retreated as Asia-Pacific physical coal prices continued to decline.

Brent Crude

Crude oil prices climbed today as President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, effectively removing over 25% of the country’s crude exports from global markets. This benefits OPEC+ should they opt to raise production but adds pressure on U.S. refiners facing higher procurement costs. However, upside momentum was limited by ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, which could increase crude and gas flows to Europe. Additionally, EIA data showed a surprise build in U.S. fuel inventories, with gasoline and distillate stocks rising while crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly. At 15h14 GMT, Brent was up 1.5% to $73.67, while WTI gained 2.25% to $70.16.

Dutch TTF Gas

European natural gas prices rebounded over 7.5% today but remain more than 6% lower for the week after a sharp 13% drop in the past two sessions. The recovery comes as concerns mount over a potential U.S.-EU trade dispute, which could drive up LNG costs, especially with the U.S. being Europe’s primary supplier. Trump has threatened 25% tariffs on EU imports, including automobiles, starting April 2. Despite today’s rally, gas prices remain 25% below February’s peak of €59, with mild weather, easing EU storage mandates, and U.S.-led Ukraine peace talks keeping the market under pressure. At 15h36 GMT, Dutch TTF gas was trading at €44.49, up 7.39%.

Iron Ore

Iron ore futures continued to soften, with the most-traded DCE I2505 contract closing at 805 yuan/mt, down 0.8%. Market sentiment remained moderate as traders followed broader trends, while steel mills made cautious, selective purchases. PB fines in Shandong traded at 803-808 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt, while Tangshan prices settled at 815 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday’s high. With industrial data support and anticipation ahead of the Two Sessions, sentiment remained cautious, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. At the Singapore Exchange, 62% Fe TSI iron ore futures traded at $105.60, down 0.14% in the PM session.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher as President Trump ordered an investigation into potential new tariffs on copper imports, aiming to curb China’s growing influence in the global copper market. The U.S. currently imports about 45% of its copper needs, making the probe a potential game-changer. Analysts see additional upward pressure on copper prices, supported by strong demand from electrification trends and constrained supply due to years of underinvestment in mining. At 15h36 GMT, LME 3-month copper was down 0.76% to $9,388/tonne, while COMEX copper futures inched up 0.26% to $4.59/lb.

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