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London Commodity News

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7th May 2026

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): _ $106.55/mt
API4 (May): $112.50/mt
Brent Crude: $98.25/bll down 2.98%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $110.80/mt down 0.31%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,404/mt up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,983/mt up 0.28%

Market sentiment today reflected a balance between easing geopolitical risk premiums and underlying structural support across physical markets, with price action remaining sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and global supply flows.

Coal
Volatility remained elevated across the energy complex, with prices extending recent losses through much of the session as expectations of potential US–Iran negotiations continued to weigh on sentiment. Front-month Brent crude and European gas were both down by around 3% intraday before recovering into the afternoon, as renewed focus on tightening inventory levels provided support. Coal markets followed a similar pattern, weakening early before retracing losses later in the day.
On the supply side, South Africa’s rail operator Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) has scheduled maintenance on its coal corridor from 21 July to 1 August, which is expected to constrain deliveries to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal. Historical trends indicate a pronounced reduction in volumes during this period, pointing to a temporary tightening in export availability.
In Europe, inventories at the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) hub rose sharply in the week to 3 May, reaching 3.2 million tonnes and surpassing the 3 million tonne level for the first time since January. The increase reflects steady import flows alongside softer coal burn, particularly in Germany. A significant portion of the build was concentrated at Rotterdam’s EMO terminal, with previously delayed cargoes now reflected in stock data.
In Asia, demand fundamentals remain firm. Rising temperatures across India are expected to drive higher power consumption through the peak summer period, with coal-fired generation likely to remain central given ongoing grid and transmission constraints limiting solar penetration. Record demand levels and expectations of further increases suggest continued strength in coal burn through May and June.

Brent Crude
Oil prices extended recent declines, with Brent crude falling below $97/bbl as markets weighed the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. Reports indicate that a preliminary framework has been proposed via intermediaries, aimed at ending hostilities and facilitating the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
While negotiations remain ongoing and subject to uncertainty, the prospect of restored shipping flows has weighed on prices. At the same time, US export data showed record outbound volumes, highlighting the role of alternative supply sources in partially offsetting disruptions in the Gulf.
Despite the recent pullback, underlying market conditions remain tight. Shipping through Hormuz continues at significantly reduced levels, and geopolitical risk remains embedded in pricing, particularly given the conditional nature of any potential agreement and the continued threat of renewed escalation.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures moved modestly higher, supported by stable underlying fundamentals and rising freight costs linked to energy market dynamics. The increase in shipping costs has provided additional price support, partially offsetting cautious procurement behaviour from steel mills.
Market sentiment has also been influenced by developments in US–Iran negotiations, with improving risk appetite offering some near-term support. However, physical market activity remains measured, with buyers continuing to prioritise essential restocking over speculative positioning.

Copper
Copper prices strengthened, supported by a weaker US dollar and improved macro sentiment linked to easing geopolitical tensions. Market positioning indicates renewed bullish interest, with increased open interest on the LME reflecting fresh buying activity.
On the supply side, logistical disruptions have constrained arrivals, maintaining a relatively tight spot market. Demand, however, remains cautious, with downstream consumers largely limiting purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated price levels.
Broader macro drivers, including currency movements and expectations around geopolitical developments, continue to dominate short-term price direction, while physical fundamentals provide underlying support.

Lead
LME lead opened at $1,972/mt and moved higher through the session, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and the ongoing impact of a smelter disruption outside China. Prices reached an intraday high of $1,989/mt, marking the strongest level since late February.
In China, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,970 yuan/mt in overnight trading but came under early pressure. Rising domestic inventories and a widening futures–spot spread weighed on sentiment, prompting a pullback shortly after the open. Prices then stabilised within a narrow 16,850–16,880 yuan/mt range, before closing at 16,840 yuan/mt, down 0.18%. Open interest declined by 5,756 lots to 65,481, indicating a reduction in positioning.
Fundamentally, supply has increased following the resumption of production at primary smelters in southwest and east China, alongside rising warehouse arrivals as post-holiday logistics normalised. Additional inventory builds have been observed in east China ahead of SHFE 2605 contract delivery. However, ongoing maintenance at secondary smelters in east China continues to constrain regional availability.
On the demand side, downstream activity has begun to recover following the Labour Day holiday, which may moderate the pace of inventory accumulation. With both supportive and bearish factors present, lead prices are expected to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.

Across markets, price action remains closely tied to geopolitical developments, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the trajectory of US–Iran negotiations. While recent signals point toward potential de-escalation, underlying supply constraints and logistical disruptions continue to influence physical markets. Near-term direction is likely to remain headline-driven, with volatility persisting as markets balance improving sentiment against unresolved structural risks.

London Commodity News

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28th April 2026

Energy markets remained firmly bid, with ongoing supply disruptions continuing to dominate sentiment across the complex.

Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): _ $102.40/mt
API4 (April): $104.00/mt
Brent Crude: $104.25/bll up 2.53%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $107.05/mt down 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,029.50/mt down 1.38%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,958/mt down 0.10%

Coal
Energy markets opened stronger, with Brent crude and European gas both rising by around 2%, providing early support to coal prices.
However, gas reversed sharply through the afternoon, with prompt contracts ending close to 3% lower, while oil remained firm, with front-month Brent finishing the day up approximately 3%. This divergence weighed on coal, with API2 coal reversing from gains of over $2 to close lower, while NEWC coal held on to more modest gains after earlier rising by more than $3.

Brent Crude
Oil prices extended their rally, with Brent crude rising towards $108/bl, marking a seventh consecutive day of gains. The move continues to be driven by persistent disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, where restricted flows are tightening global supply.
With both Iranian shipping curbs and the ongoing US blockade limiting exports, the market is increasingly focused on physical supply rather than political rhetoric. Tanker traffic remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with several vessels reportedly forced to turn back, reinforcing the perception of a sustained supply shock.
Even in the event of a ceasefire, logistical constraints such as port congestion and rerouting are expected to take months to resolve, maintaining a structural risk premium in prices. Ongoing diplomatic discussions have yet to produce a breakthrough, while broader developments, including shifts in OPEC dynamics, continue to add complexity to the outlook.

Iron Ore
Iron ore markets were volatile, with prices weakening overall. The most active DCE contract closed down 0.89% at 700.5 RMB/t, while spot prices declined by 2–5 RMB/t.
Rising seaborne arrivals and increasing port inventories are expected to cap any near-term upside, while tightening environmental restrictions on steel production are weighing on demand. Despite some intraday stability, the broader balance suggests continued downside pressure in the short term.

Copper
Copper prices retreated to a two-week low, with LME three-month copper falling 0.9% to around $13,090/t. A stronger dollar, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over global growth, weighed on sentiment.
The market remains caught between weaker demand expectations—particularly in China—and underlying supply constraints. With macroeconomic signals and central bank policy in focus, price direction is likely to remain sensitive to broader financial conditions as well as developments in the Middle East.

Lead
Lead markets remained relatively stable, with LME prices closing marginally higher after fluctuating through the session. Supply conditions tightened slightly due to maintenance at secondary smelters and limited availability of spot material in key regions.
Demand remained subdued ahead of the Labour Day holiday, with downstream buyers maintaining a cautious, just-in-time procurement approach. Overall, the market continues to reflect a soft supply-demand balance, with prices expected to trade within a narrow range in the near term.

Commodity markets remain highly reactive to developments in the Middle East, with supply-side risks continuing to underpin energy prices while broader industrial metals show a more mixed and cautious tone.

London Commodity News

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21st April 2026

Markets remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments, with sentiment shifting rapidly as traders balance supply disruption risks against uncertain diplomatic progress. Energy continues to set the tone, while metals are taking direction from both macro signals and underlying demand.

Prices at 17h10 GMT
API2 (April): $102.00/mt
API4 (April): $105.00/mt
Brent Crude: $98.00/bbl, up 2.64%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $107.20/mt, up 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,228.50/mt, down 0.34%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1962.50 /mt down 0.61%

Coal
Energy markets rebounded sharply, driven by reports that the United States is unlikely to extend the ceasefire with Iran beyond Wednesday, raising expectations of a prolonged conflict. Front-month European gas rose by around 5.5%, while Brent crude gained close to 3% by the close.
Coal prices followed the stronger energy complex, posting broad gains across indices, with Newcastle (NEWC) swaps once again showing the most pronounced reaction.

Brent Crude
Oil prices eased after a sharp rally, as uncertainty around Iran’s participation in potential negotiations with the United States tempered bullish momentum. Brent had surged above $95/bbl following weekend tensions in the Gulf, including the seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel and renewed restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz.
While supply concerns remain elevated, mixed signals on diplomacy have capped further gains. The U.S. has indicated willingness to engage in talks, though Iranian participation remains unclear, leaving markets caught between escalation risk and the prospect of de-escalation. As a result, prices continue to reflect a partial geopolitical risk premium, with volatility driven by headline flow.
Beyond immediate price action, sustained elevated oil prices are beginning to raise broader concerns around inflation and global growth, reinforcing the sensitivity of markets to developments in the region.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices moved higher, supported by restocking demand in China ahead of the May Labour Day holiday and tightening inventories. Futures rose modestly, with stockpiles declining for a second consecutive week, providing additional support to the market.
Demand fundamentals remain firm, with stable blast furnace utilisation underpinning consumption. At the same time, emerging supply-side concerns—particularly fuel-related disruptions affecting mining activity—have added a layer of support to prices.
In the near term, iron ore is expected to remain elevated but volatile. Any release of previously restricted port inventories could introduce short-term pressure, though current demand levels continue to provide a solid floor.

Copper
Copper traded largely sideways, with the market lacking clear direction as investors awaited developments on U.S.–Iran negotiations and macroeconomic signals from the United States. LME prices held steady, while a firmer dollar limited upside momentum.
The market remains in a holding pattern, balancing geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing demand signals. In China, refined copper output reached record levels, indicating continued supply strength despite earlier expectations of production cuts.
Until clearer signals emerge from both geopolitical and macro fronts, copper is likely to remain rangebound, with sentiment shifting in response to external developments.

Lead
Lead prices edged higher, supported by modest buying interest, although overall market activity remained subdued. Spot demand continues to be soft, particularly from battery producers, while rising energy costs are influencing production dynamics.
Despite limited trading activity, expectations of higher prices are beginning to filter into the market, with potential implications for upcoming contract negotiations. However, in the absence of stronger demand, gains are likely to remain gradual.

Across the complex, markets remain caught between competing forces of geopolitical risk and cautious optimism around potential negotiations. Energy continues to drive broader sentiment, with metals following suit but supported by underlying demand. Until there is greater clarity on both diplomatic progress and supply conditions, volatility is likely to persist.

London Commodity News

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7th April 2026

Markets opened under heightened tension, with energy once again at the centre of attention as geopolitical risk intensified. Oil surged on escalating military action and firm deadlines around the Strait of Hormuz, while bulk and base metals remained more measured, balancing supportive demand signals against persistent macro uncertainty.

Prices at 16h30 GMT

Thermal Coal: April API2 – $112/mt ; April API4 – $108.50/mt

Brent Crude: $110.66/bll; Up 0.81%

SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $107.50/mt; Down 0.23%

LME 3-Month Copper: $12,319.50/mt; Down 0.32%

LME 3-Month Lead: _$1,944/mt; Up 0.57%

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Coal

Energy markets were broadly steady through the morning session following the long weekend, with participants largely waiting for clarity on the apparent ultimatum issued by the U.S. to Iran regarding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

European gas prices strengthened into the afternoon, supported by reports suggesting that the likelihood of a near-term deal may be diminishing. This move also provided some support to coal prices, which recovered modestly, although both markets ultimately remained close to unchanged on the day.

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Brent Crude

Brent crude pushed back above $110 per barrel, driven by escalating rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump and renewed military action targeting Iranian infrastructure. The latest strikes, including activity near Kharg Island—Iran’s primary export hub—have significantly heightened concerns over global supply disruption, even as officials maintain that energy assets were not directly targeted. The market continues to price in worst-case scenarios, including prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability.

Despite a marginal recovery in tanker traffic, flows through Hormuz remain well below normal levels, reinforcing fears of sustained supply tightness. Diplomatic efforts have so far yielded little progress, with Iran rejecting ceasefire proposals and tensions continuing to escalate. The situation has created a sharp divergence in pricing dynamics, with spot premiums surging as refiners scramble to secure alternative supply, particularly in Asia and Europe.

Looking ahead, volatility is likely to remain elevated. With geopolitical risk premiums firmly embedded and the potential for further escalation still present, oil markets are expected to stay well supported, with price direction largely dictated by developments in the region.

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Iron Ore

Iron ore prices softened modestly after early gains, with futures closing slightly lower as market participants remained cautious. Spot prices also edged down, with trading activity limited as steel mills adopted a wait-and-see approach. While traders showed some willingness to hold offers firm, overall liquidity in the physical market remained subdued.

Fundamentally, the market continues to face opposing forces. Short-term supply tightness, reflected in reduced port arrivals, has provided some support, while ongoing blast furnace operations are maintaining steady demand. However, elevated port inventories continue to weigh on sentiment, limiting upside potential and dampening trading activity.

Additional pressure has come from macro and policy developments, including anti-dumping measures on Chinese steel exports and broader concerns around global demand. While infrastructure initiatives in China may provide some support, the market currently lacks a strong catalyst for a sustained move higher. In the near term, iron ore is expected to remain rangebound with a slightly weaker bias.

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Copper

Copper prices edged higher, supported by improving demand indicators from China, including falling inventories and firm import premiums. The decline in SHFE stocks and resilience in the Yangshan premium point to strengthening physical demand, particularly as the market approaches the seasonal peak consumption period.

However, gains were capped by broader macro pressures. Rising oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar have weighed on sentiment across the base metals complex, reinforcing copper’s role as a macro-sensitive asset. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has also limited risk appetite, preventing a more sustained rally despite supportive fundamentals.

In the near term, copper is likely to trade within a narrow range, supported by improving demand but constrained by macro headwinds. Clearer direction will depend on both geopolitical developments and the trajectory of global economic conditions.

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Lead

Lead markets remain under pressure, with ample supply and weak demand combining to limit upside. While inventories of lead ingots have continued to decline in some regions, increased output from both primary and secondary smelters, along with steady imports, has kept overall supply comfortable.

On the demand side, the market has entered a seasonal lull, with lead-acid battery producers showing limited purchasing interest. This has resulted in weak spot activity and heightened concerns around potential inventory builds following the holiday period.

As a result, lead prices are expected to remain rangebound with a softer tone. Without a meaningful pickup in downstream demand, the market is likely to struggle to generate upward momentum in the near term.

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Across the commodity complex, divergence remains evident. Energy markets continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments, while metals are increasingly influenced by demand signals and macro conditions. Until greater clarity emerges on both fronts, markets are likely to remain volatile, reactive, and driven by headline risk rather than fundamental conviction.

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London Commodity News

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23rd February 2026

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Prices at 17h00 GMT

Thermal Coal: February API2 $107.50/mt & API4 $99.35/mt

Brent Crude: $71.22/bll – Down 0.75%

Dutch TTF Gas: €31.55/mt – Down 1.50%_

LME 3-Month Copper: $12,854.50/mt – Down 0.79%

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Commodity markets opened the week navigating geopolitical developments, policy uncertainty and post-holiday positioning across metals, resulting in mixed price action.

Home » Lead

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Coal

The recent strength in API2 eased, with prompt contracts declining by nearly $2. Physical DES ARA for April 2026 delivery also traded slightly below last week’s bid levels, while softer European gas prices added downward pressure to API2 swaps. In the Pacific, reduced support in the physical Newcastle market weighed on sentiment, contributing to declines across shorter-dated NEWC swaps.

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Brent Crude

Brent crude held near six-month highs after rising more than 5% last week, supported by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions ahead of a third round of nuclear negotiations. While Iran has signalled potential concessions in exchange for sanctions relief, uncertainty around possible military escalation continues to underpin prices.

At the same time, shifting U.S. trade policy added to volatility. A Supreme Court decision to strike down emergency tariffs was followed by plans for a temporary 15% import tariff, clouding the macro outlook. Analysts note that despite firm headline prices, softer prompt spreads and physical differentials suggest gains are largely geopolitically driven rather than reflective of tight physical supply.

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European Natural Gas

European gas prices eased modestly as improving LNG inflows and milder weather forecasts offset earlier support from Middle East tensions. The Dutch TTF benchmark traded lower near €31.6/MWh, despite continued strong storage withdrawals.

Europe remains on track for record LNG imports in February, aided by weak Chinese demand that has redirected cargoes toward Europe. Storage levels, however, remain low at roughly 30%, well below seasonal norms, sustaining underlying refill demand. U.S. LNG continues to dominate supply, although regulatory discussions around methane rules could influence future trade dynamics.

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Copper

Copper slipped slightly after recent gains as inventories continued to build and markets awaited the return of Chinese participants following the Lunar New Year holiday. LME copper fell to around $12,913 per tonne, with warehouse stocks rising to their highest level since March 2025.

Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and demand trends also weighed on sentiment. Market focus now shifts to the reopening of Shanghai markets, where investors will assess whether domestic demand strengthens after the holiday period.

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Lead

Lead prices remained subdued during the Lunar New Year holiday, trading within a narrow range as overseas inventories rose sharply. LME stocks increased by over 50,000 tonnes, while domestic demand in China was largely absent due to widespread downstream shutdowns, particularly among lead-acid battery producers.

With smelters maintaining relatively normal operations during the holiday, inventories are expected to continue building in the near term. As Chinese exchanges reopen and downstream activity gradually resumes, demand recovery may provide scope for stabilisation, although elevated stocks are likely to cap prices initially.

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Markets continue to balance geopolitical risk, inventory trends and policy uncertainty. While energy remains supported by strategic tensions, metals are entering a phase of consolidation as liquidity returns and post-holiday demand signals emerge.

London Commodity News

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London Commodity News
19th January 2026

Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.20/mt, January API4 $88.75/mt
Brent Crude: $64.18/bll – Up 0.06%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $106.05/mt – Down 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,971/mt – Up 1.15%
LME 3-month Lead: $2,061/mt Up 0.83%
Chrome Ore South African 40%-42%: $278/mt CIF China

Markets opened the week on a softer footing as easing Middle East tensions reduced risk premiums in energy, while metals diverged on policy signals, demand concerns and supply-side disruptions.

Coal
The energy complex remained volatile, with European gas prices falling around 8% early in the session after last week’s sharp gains, before recovering through the afternoon to finish about 4% lower. Shifting weather forecasts and ongoing concerns around storage levels continued to drive price swings.
API2 also softened in the morning before clawing back some losses to end marginally lower. Newcastle (NEWC) swaps found support, underpinned by firmer bids and offers in the physical Newcastle market.

Brent Crude
Oil prices eased as fears of imminent U.S. strikes on Iran faded, with Brent slipping below USD 64/bbl early Monday. The pullback followed last week’s rally above USD 66/bbl, as tensions around Iran’s protests appeared to cool and President Trump stepped back, for now, from military action. Trading was thinner due to the U.S. holiday, adding to subdued price action. Attention shifted to renewed U.S.–EU trade friction after Trump threatened tariffs on several European allies over Greenland, pressuring broader risk sentiment. Despite softer flat prices, prompt Brent spreads remained firm, signalling some tightness in the physical market. China’s increased intake of discounted Russian Urals crude, as India reduces purchases, continues to reshape global flows.

Iron Ore
Iron ore fell sharply, with the DCE I2605 contract down 2.6% to 794 yuan/mt and spot prices lower by 10–15 yuan. Sentiment weakened on market rumours of an accident at Baogang that temporarily reduced pig iron output, triggering panic selling despite limited regional impact. While prices retreated, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Pre-holiday restocking has begun, providing spot demand support, and any further clarification around production impacts could allow prices to stabilise or rebound later in the period.

Copper (LME)
Copper firmed on the LME as a weaker dollar and safe-haven flows into metals offset concerns about softer Chinese physical demand. LME three-month copper rose back toward USD 13,000/t, while Shanghai copper slipped on profit-taking and rising inventories. Chinese data showed full-year GDP growth met the 5% target, though property weakness persists. Despite near-term demand softness, copper remains underpinned by mine disruptions and continued stock movements into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs, keeping regional supply tight outside North America.

Chrome Ore
Chrome ore prices continued to strengthen, supported by firm spot offers, rising futures prices and tightening supply. Zimbabwe’s higher taxes and port congestion, combined with flood-related shipment risks in South Africa, have lifted costs and reduced availability, while port inventories declined. Winter stockpiling by ferrochrome producers has increased inquiries, and futures offers for South African concentrate jumped to USD 280/mt. Market sentiment remains bullish, though sustainability will depend on downstream stainless steel demand and export policy developments.

Lead
Lead markets remain weak amid soft downstream consumption. For primary lead, ample circulating supply continues to weigh on spot pricing, while secondary lead saw limited relief from regional production cuts linked to smog controls. Lead-acid battery demand has slowed sharply in January, inventories are building, and spot discounts have widened. With macro support fading and consumption subdued, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term.

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Overall, easing geopolitical risk has tempered energy prices, while metals remain caught between policy uncertainty, uneven demand and structural supply issues. Volatility is likely to persist as markets recalibrate after recent extremes.

London Commodity News

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12th January 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.00/mt, January API4 $88.50/mt
Brent Crude: $63.63/bll – Up 0.47%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $108.20/mt – Down 0.46%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,203/mt – Up 1.46%
Chrome Ore, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $269.00/mt CIF China
Manganese Ore, South African (Mn42%Fe12%) $4.85/dmtu CIF North China
LME 3-Month Lead $2,059/mt – Up 0.46%

Markets opened the week with a cautious tone as investors weighed easing geopolitical fears against firm demand signals across key industrial and energy markets. While oil gave back some of last week’s gains, metals continued to find support from Chinese policy expectations and tightening physical fundamentals.

Coal
Coal swaps saw a quieter session, with API2 ending largely unchanged after finding some modest support earlier in the day. European gas prices moved higher and remain volatile, providing a contrasting backdrop to the more stable coal market.
Newcastle (NEWC) swaps edged slightly firmer, although the physical Newcastle market remained steady. API4 swaps also held their recent gains, ending the session broadly unchanged.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower as Iran signalled that domestic unrest was “under total control,” easing immediate fears of supply disruption after a volatile weekend. This tempered some of the risk premium that had driven a strong rally late last week, when Brent and WTI rose more than 3%. At the same time, attention shifted to Venezuela, where preparations are under way to resume exports following political change, with up to 50 million barrels expected to be transferred to the United States. Despite this, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains supportive. U.S. officials are considering further options on Iran, while Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure keep the risk of tighter sanctions alive. Goldman Sachs still expects oil prices to drift lower through 2026 on rising supply and swelling OECD inventories, but analysts at Capital Economics warn that any serious disruption to Iranian exports could trigger a sharp, albeit temporary, $15–$20 per barrel spike.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures firmed modestly, with the most-traded Dalian contract closing up 0.92% at CNY822.5/mt , while spot prices rose slightly. Trading activity remained moderate, with steel mills largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, even as traders offered material at firmer levels. Supply dynamics remain mixed. Global shipments fell sharply week-on-week, but arrivals at China’s main ports increased, keeping inventories elevated. Looking ahead, the start of pre-Lunar New Year restocking should provide downside support, though ample port stocks are likely to cap any sharp upside, leaving prices oscillating near current high levels.

Copper (LME)
Copper extended its rebound, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing optimism around Chinese demand. Shanghai copper jumped nearly 3% and LME three-month copper climbed above $13,150 per tonne, remaining close to last week’s record highs after Beijing signalled fresh fiscal and financial measures to stimulate domestic consumption. Additional support came from supply-side concerns, including lower output at Chile’s Codelco, and continued merger speculation following Rio Tinto’s talks with Glencore. Broader base metals also benefited from the softer dollar, with nickel and tin posting strong gains on supply and demand concerns.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices continued to rise as higher futures levels and stronger South African concentrate prices lifted ferrochrome production costs. Improved profitability at stainless steel mills and higher January production schedules provided a solid base for demand, reinforcing price support across major origins. Trading activity was firm as winter stockpiling gathered pace and rising futures offers boosted sentiment. Policy changes in Zimbabwe have tightened supply, particularly for concentrates, while lump ore remained well supported by limited availability. Futures prices moved higher again, underlining a positive short-term market bias.

Manganese
Manganese ore markets remained well supported by rising overseas offers, with major miners lifting February prices to China. Stronger international pricing fed through to higher domestic spot values, while SiMn futures strength improved sentiment and encouraged buying interest from alloy producers. However, the picture remains uneven. While northern Chinese demand was steady, southern buyers stayed cautious, leading to rising inventories at Qinzhou Port as arrivals outpaced consumption. Prices are likely to remain firm in the near term, but persistent weakness in southern demand and growing port stocks could eventually trigger a corrective pullback.

Lead
Some smelters kept scrap battery purchase prices steady or slightly higher to secure feedstock, while suppliers became more willing to sell after a period of reluctance. Large smelters in central and eastern China reported relatively comfortable arrivals, easing immediate raw-material concerns. However, downstream battery demand remains weak as end-market sales continue to struggle, pushing operating rates lower and limiting lead ingot procurement. As a result, finished lead inventories are building at both primary and secondary smelters, which is likely to cap any near-term price recovery and raises the risk of further pressure after the next delivery cycle.

Overall, commodity markets continue to be driven by a blend of geopolitical risk, Chinese stimulus expectations and tightening supply in key raw materials. While volatility remains elevated, underlying fundamentals across metals and energy suggest prices will stay supported in the near term.

London Commodity News

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5th January 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 – $97.50/mt, January API4 – $86.50/mt
Brent Crude: $61.43/bll – Up 1.12%
Iron Ore: $105.75/mt – Down 0.24%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,983/mt – Up 4.09%
Chrome Ore-South African 40%/42% CIF China: $264/mt
LME 3-Month Lead: $2019.50/mt Up 0.65%

Commodities traded with a firm tone as geopolitical developments, restocking activity, and supply disruptions shaped near-term sentiment.

Coal
Longer-dated contracts came under further moderate selling pressure today, driving additional weakness at the back end of the curve. European gas prices remained volatile and fell by more than 4%, while API2 was relatively stable by comparison. Oil prices, initially steady following weekend news of US intervention in Venezuela, finished the session around 1.5% higher. The physical Newcastle market also saw more aggressive offers than last week.

Brent Crude
Brent crude edged higher after trading lower for much of the session, as markets assessed the near-term supply outlook following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, years of underinvestment and the heavy, sour quality of its crude limit its export impact, with current output below 1 mbpd—less than 1% of global supply. OPEC+ reiterated its commitment to keep output unchanged in Q1, tempering immediate supply concerns. However, caution persists amid the risk of broader US pressure on other producers, including Iran, which could tighten supply later in the year. Some reports also suggest Washington may encourage US firms to support a revival of Venezuela’s oil sector.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures rose on the first trading day of the year, supported by pre-Lunar New Year restocking and tight domestic supply. The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 797 yuan/t, while Singapore prices also edged higher. Environmental restrictions have constrained mine output, and steel inventories continue to decline. However, global shipments increased slightly last week, and port inventories are expected to rebuild, limiting upside. With blast furnace restarts underway, iron ore prices are likely to remain volatile but supported in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper surged toward record highs as supply concerns intensified following strike action at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in Chile and sharply lower exchange inventories. Stocks on the London Metal Exchange have fallen more than 50% since August, with much of the metal flowing to the US amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Analysts at UBS forecast a sizeable copper deficit from 2026, reinforcing the bullish supply narrative despite elevated prices.

Chrome
Chrome ore market activity picked up after the holiday, supported by strong ferrochrome production schedules and restocking interest. Mainstream lump ore remains tight, with traders holding prices firm. South African fine ore participants are awaiting fresh overseas offers, with sentiment cautiously optimistic. In the absence of new futures pricing, the market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

Lead
Lead inventories sent mixed signals, with LME stocks falling while SHFE inventories rose week on week. With downstream activity muted over the holiday and primary smelters resuming production, prices are expected to refocus on fundamentals. Despite a near-term supply–demand mismatch, low social inventories and ongoing shortages of lead concentrates should provide downside support.

Overall, commodity markets remain sensitive to supply-side risks and policy signals, suggesting continued volatility as fundamentals reassert themselves in early 2026.

London Commodity News

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19th December 2025


Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.33/bll – Up 0.84%
Iron Ore: $107.15/mt – Down 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,876.50/mt – Up 0.88%
LME 3-month lead: $1,987/mt – Up 1.22%
South African Manganese Ore 42%Mn12%Fe CIF China: $4.66/mtu
South African Chrome Ore 40-42%Cr CIF China: $264/mt

Markets closed the session with a cautious but orderly tone, as participants balanced near-term supply risks against softer demand signals and a growing focus on inventories and positioning into year-end. Price action was largely driven by fundamentals rather than sentiment shifts.

Coal
Coal swap price action was fairly subdued today, despite continued support in European gas markets, where front-end contracts rose more than 2% from relatively low levels. The physical Newcastle market saw more aggressive offers, though NEWC swaps still ended the session largely unchanged.

Brent Crude
Oil futures finished higher as the market weighed Venezuelan supply risks against the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine resolution and expectations of significant oversupply in 2026. While potential disruptions to Venezuelan exports offer some support, analysts continue to view these risks as modest relative to the scale of surplus likely to emerge if Russian supply normalises. The more pressing concern remains inventories: crude held at sea has risen to around 1.3 billion barrels, the highest level since April 2020, with slow-moving tankers signalling difficulty in clearing excess supply. With OPEC+ and non-OPEC output still rising, inventory dynamics are expected to be the dominant driver of prices in the months ahead.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher, with the I2605 contract closing at RMB 780, up 0.52%. Despite the uptick, fundamentals remain soft. Maintenance at northern Chinese steel mills reduced hot metal output and port pick-up volumes, leading to continued inventory accumulation at ports. Safety inspections in some regions tightened spot availability, offering limited price support, but steel mills maintained disciplined, demand-led restocking under strict cost controls. Overall trading activity remained subdued, and prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper posted modest gains and was on track for a weekly rise, supported by renewed focus on structural supply constraints. Goldman Sachs reiterated its long-term bullish view, citing limited mine expansion and robust demand growth, while near-term gains were capped by a firmer U.S. dollar. Market participants continue to view copper as fundamentally well supported, though some caution that prices near $12,000 may struggle to extend further without stronger demand confirmation.

*Manganese&
The manganese ore market remained firm, underpinned by rising overseas offers for January 2026 shipments and strong cost support. Supply conditions were tight for several mainstream ore types, with traders holding prices firm. Demand showed regional divergence: northern SiMn producers maintained relatively active purchasing on expectations of production restarts, while southern producers remained in off-season mode, buying strictly on demand. Port inventories were mixed, with Tianjin balanced and Qinzhou elevated. Overall, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with downstream alloy demand the key variable to monitor.

Lead
Lead supply increased slightly as some primary smelters resumed operations, but falling prices encouraged downstream buyers to purchase on dips. Year-end cash-flow needs prompted active selling, reducing smelter inventories. Transport restrictions in parts of China delayed deliveries, which may further tighten visible inventories once lifted. In the secondary market, lower prices reduced selling appetite, narrowing discounts to near parity. Spot market activity remained light, with most demand covered via long-term contracts.

Chrome
Chrome ore trading activity improved as earlier low-priced material was largely cleared. Traders showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, while ferrochrome producers gradually returned to the market, easing counteroffer pressure. Stable overseas mine quotations, including flat pricing for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt, helped offset weaker steel tender prices and supported confidence. Phased restocking ahead of future demand led to more concentrated transactions. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with attention on upcoming steel mill bidding outcomes.

Overall, markets remain finely balanced between surplus-driven pressure and pockets of structural support. With inventories, restocking behaviour, and cost discipline dominating decision-making, price action is likely to stay measured and rangebound as the year draws to a close.

London Commodity News

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8th December 2025


Prices at 17h00 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $97.10/mt API4 $91.50/mt
Brent Crude: $62.83/bll – Down 1.46%
Iron Ore: $105.80/mt – Down 0.09%
LME 3-month copper: $11,627/mt – Up 0.12%
LME 3month-lead: $2,000/mt – Down, 0.10%

Commodity markets today reflected a mix of geopolitical risk, shifting supply dynamics, and evolving macroeconomic expectations. Energy, bulk materials, and base metals each moved on distinct fundamentals, with traders weighing immediate disruptions against broader policy signals and year-end demand trends.

Coal
Coal prices found moderate support again today, led by gains in NEWC swaps, which were buoyed by stronger bidding interest in the physical Newcastle market. The broader energy complex was softer, with European gas prices falling a further 2% and front-month Brent crude slipping 1.5%.

Brent Crude
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have disrupted crude loadings, adding strain to global supply chains. Russia has attempted to reassure buyers such as India that deliveries will remain stable, but weak demand and rising output from major producers continue to cast a shadow over the market. Attention now turns to forthcoming monthly outlooks from the EIA, IEA and OPEC, which are expected to help define near-term direction. Some analysts maintain that Brent could drift toward USD 60 per barrel by 2026 amid persistent concerns about long-term demand.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures softened today, with the DCE I2605 contract closing at RMB 760.5, down 1.43% week-on-week. Shipments to China fell slightly to 26.88 million tonnes, while hot-metal production saw a more notable decline, signalling weaker demand. Market participants are watching the conclusion of negotiations between Zhongkuang and BHP; if supply restrictions ease, increased availability could amplify selling pressure. Despite this, supportive macro expectations limit the downside, and prices are likely to continue drifting within a weak, rangebound pattern.

Copper (LME)
Copper set a fresh all-time high, climbing to $11,771 per tonne before easing back, supported by Beijing’s reaffirmed commitment to growth through proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary stance. Expectations of investment in power-grid upgrades and computing infrastructure have added to bullish sentiment. Stronger-than-expected Chinese export data—pushing the annual trade surplus above $1 trillion—also contributed, while continued U.S. stockpiling has tightened global availability. Momentum remains firmly to the upside.

Lead (LME)
Lead prices held firm as seasonal declines in waste lead-acid battery supply reduced raw material availability for secondary smelters. Although some smelters moderated raw-material price increases due to adequate inventories, lead ingot supply has tightened, with domestic social stocks hitting a 15-month low. Downstream battery manufacturers have increased procurement ahead of year-end demand, and the combination of stronger buying and constrained supply is expected to keep lead prices supported in the short term.

Chrome
The chrome ore market started the week quietly, though steady futures offers and renewed buying from major ferrochrome producers helped lift sentiment slightly. Oversold prices encouraged traders to hold firmer, but stainless-steel production cuts and weak ferrochrome prices continue to cap the upside. South African 40–42% concentrate held at $263/mt, while some traders began small-scale stockpiling for 2026. Severe congestion at Mozambique’s Beira Port has driven up freight costs for Zimbabwean ore, adding further pressure. Overall, the near-term outlook remains subdued. In South Africa, the ferrochrome sector is under mounting strain. Eskom has signed an MoU with Samancor and the Glencore–Merafe venture to prevent large-scale job losses, with a task team set to deliver an electricity-pricing solution within three months. Glencore will idle two smelters in January, affecting 2,400 workers, while Samancor has flagged similar risks. Temporary relief under existing pricing agreements highlights the need for a long-term fix.
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%) – $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% Min) – $225/mt CIF China

With geopolitical tensions unresolved and key policy updates imminent, market direction remains finely balanced. Participants will continue to monitor supply tightness, industrial demand, and macro guidance as they position for the close of the year and the early outlook for 2026.

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