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Market Brief – 8 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 BST)
• Brent Crude: $101.57/bbl, up 1.51% — supported, despite easing geopolitical risk premium
• Coal (API2 May): $107.10/mt — firmer, tracking broader energy stability
• Coal (API4 May): $114.00/mt — supported, with continued export strength
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.95/mt, down 0.14% — steady, underpinned by resilient demand
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,572/mt, up 1.32% — strong, supported by structural supply concerns

What Matters Today
• Markets ended the week balancing improving diplomatic sentiment against ongoing physical disruption
• Energy prices stabilised, though underlying supply conditions remain exceptionally tight
• Bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient industrial demand and elevated costs
• Metals remain underpinned by structural supply constraints and logistical disruption

Coal
Coal markets traded firmer, supported by a more stable energy complex following the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude and European gas both ended the session modestly higher, helping coal prices recover steadily through the day.
The move was less aggressive than earlier rallies, but broad-based support remained visible across indices as markets continued to price in elevated energy risk despite improving diplomatic sentiment.
Physical fundamentals remain constructive. Asian demand continues to hold firm, particularly across India, while European coal burn remains supported by relatively favourable economics versus gas. With supply chains still constrained and freight costs elevated, the market continues to retain a structurally supported tone despite softer geopolitical pricing.

Coal Curves
• API2: Modestly firmer, supported by stable Atlantic sentiment
• API4: Continuing to outperform on export demand strength
• Spread: Reflects freight costs and regional supply tightness

Trade Insight
• Markets remain trapped between diplomatic optimism and physical supply reality
• Coal continues to demonstrate underlying resilience despite energy volatility
• Metals are increasingly supported by structural supply-side constraints rather than cyclical demand
• Logistics and inventory tightness remain the key drivers across commodity pricing

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets remained volatile, though Brent crude stabilised near $101/bbl after a sharp correction earlier in the week.
Comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the ceasefire with Iran remains intact helped reduce some geopolitical risk premium, despite renewed military clashes in the region. Markets interpreted the remarks as a signal that broader diplomatic discussions remain possible.
However, conditions across the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted. Since late February, shipping activity has operated at significantly reduced levels, materially constraining global crude flows and contributing to ongoing production outages across the Gulf.
According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 14 million barrels per day of supply continues to be affected by the disruption. While diplomatic progress has improved sentiment, physical market conditions remain exceptionally tight, leaving oil highly sensitive to any renewed escalation or breakdown in negotiations.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended gains for a fifth consecutive session, supported by resilient steel demand and strong mill margins in China. Blast furnace utilisation remains close to peak levels, underpinning consumption despite some moderation during the May Day holiday period. While rising Brazilian exports and developments at Simandou may add future supply pressure, current market focus remains centred on demand resilience and tightening inventories.
Copper
Copper strengthened further, reaching its highest levels since January at one stage during the week. The market continues to be supported by improving macro sentiment, structural demand growth linked to electrification and infrastructure, and ongoing supply concerns surrounding major mining operations such as Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
U.S. COMEX copper continues to outperform international benchmarks amid speculation around potential tariff measures and investor positioning linked to supply security concerns.
Sulphur
Sulphur markets remain in an acute supply lock-up phase, with physical availability tightening simultaneously across all major trade corridors. China’s withdrawal from sulphuric acid exports, Gulf logistics disruption, and export restrictions from Russia and Turkey have created a structurally undersupplied market.
Industrial impacts are intensifying across nickel, copper and fertiliser sectors, with supply security increasingly outweighing pricing considerations. Physical liquidity remains extremely limited, while logistical constraints continue to fragment global trade flows and elevate executable transaction costs.

Market Regime
Tight supply / Stable energy / Supported bulk / Structurally bullish metals

Closing View
Commodity markets continue to operate within an environment defined by constrained logistics, geopolitical uncertainty and structurally tight supply chains. While improving diplomatic sentiment between the United States and Iran has reduced some immediate risk premium, the underlying disruption to physical flows remains significant across energy and industrial commodities.
Coal and bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient demand and elevated freight costs, while metals remain increasingly driven by structural supply-side concerns. Until trade routes normalise and inventories rebuild more meaningfully, markets are likely to remain volatile, with physical availability continuing to dominate price direction across the commodity complex.

London Commodity News

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7th May 2026

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): _ $106.55/mt
API4 (May): $112.50/mt
Brent Crude: $98.25/bll down 2.98%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $110.80/mt down 0.31%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,404/mt up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,983/mt up 0.28%

Market sentiment today reflected a balance between easing geopolitical risk premiums and underlying structural support across physical markets, with price action remaining sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and global supply flows.

Coal
Volatility remained elevated across the energy complex, with prices extending recent losses through much of the session as expectations of potential US–Iran negotiations continued to weigh on sentiment. Front-month Brent crude and European gas were both down by around 3% intraday before recovering into the afternoon, as renewed focus on tightening inventory levels provided support. Coal markets followed a similar pattern, weakening early before retracing losses later in the day.
On the supply side, South Africa’s rail operator Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) has scheduled maintenance on its coal corridor from 21 July to 1 August, which is expected to constrain deliveries to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal. Historical trends indicate a pronounced reduction in volumes during this period, pointing to a temporary tightening in export availability.
In Europe, inventories at the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) hub rose sharply in the week to 3 May, reaching 3.2 million tonnes and surpassing the 3 million tonne level for the first time since January. The increase reflects steady import flows alongside softer coal burn, particularly in Germany. A significant portion of the build was concentrated at Rotterdam’s EMO terminal, with previously delayed cargoes now reflected in stock data.
In Asia, demand fundamentals remain firm. Rising temperatures across India are expected to drive higher power consumption through the peak summer period, with coal-fired generation likely to remain central given ongoing grid and transmission constraints limiting solar penetration. Record demand levels and expectations of further increases suggest continued strength in coal burn through May and June.

Brent Crude
Oil prices extended recent declines, with Brent crude falling below $97/bbl as markets weighed the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. Reports indicate that a preliminary framework has been proposed via intermediaries, aimed at ending hostilities and facilitating the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
While negotiations remain ongoing and subject to uncertainty, the prospect of restored shipping flows has weighed on prices. At the same time, US export data showed record outbound volumes, highlighting the role of alternative supply sources in partially offsetting disruptions in the Gulf.
Despite the recent pullback, underlying market conditions remain tight. Shipping through Hormuz continues at significantly reduced levels, and geopolitical risk remains embedded in pricing, particularly given the conditional nature of any potential agreement and the continued threat of renewed escalation.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures moved modestly higher, supported by stable underlying fundamentals and rising freight costs linked to energy market dynamics. The increase in shipping costs has provided additional price support, partially offsetting cautious procurement behaviour from steel mills.
Market sentiment has also been influenced by developments in US–Iran negotiations, with improving risk appetite offering some near-term support. However, physical market activity remains measured, with buyers continuing to prioritise essential restocking over speculative positioning.

Copper
Copper prices strengthened, supported by a weaker US dollar and improved macro sentiment linked to easing geopolitical tensions. Market positioning indicates renewed bullish interest, with increased open interest on the LME reflecting fresh buying activity.
On the supply side, logistical disruptions have constrained arrivals, maintaining a relatively tight spot market. Demand, however, remains cautious, with downstream consumers largely limiting purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated price levels.
Broader macro drivers, including currency movements and expectations around geopolitical developments, continue to dominate short-term price direction, while physical fundamentals provide underlying support.

Lead
LME lead opened at $1,972/mt and moved higher through the session, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and the ongoing impact of a smelter disruption outside China. Prices reached an intraday high of $1,989/mt, marking the strongest level since late February.
In China, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,970 yuan/mt in overnight trading but came under early pressure. Rising domestic inventories and a widening futures–spot spread weighed on sentiment, prompting a pullback shortly after the open. Prices then stabilised within a narrow 16,850–16,880 yuan/mt range, before closing at 16,840 yuan/mt, down 0.18%. Open interest declined by 5,756 lots to 65,481, indicating a reduction in positioning.
Fundamentally, supply has increased following the resumption of production at primary smelters in southwest and east China, alongside rising warehouse arrivals as post-holiday logistics normalised. Additional inventory builds have been observed in east China ahead of SHFE 2605 contract delivery. However, ongoing maintenance at secondary smelters in east China continues to constrain regional availability.
On the demand side, downstream activity has begun to recover following the Labour Day holiday, which may moderate the pace of inventory accumulation. With both supportive and bearish factors present, lead prices are expected to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.

Across markets, price action remains closely tied to geopolitical developments, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the trajectory of US–Iran negotiations. While recent signals point toward potential de-escalation, underlying supply constraints and logistical disruptions continue to influence physical markets. Near-term direction is likely to remain headline-driven, with volatility persisting as markets balance improving sentiment against unresolved structural risks.

LCB Market Brief – 6 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
• Brent Crude: $101.52/bbl, down 7.60% — sharply lower on improving diplomatic signals
• Coal (API2 May): $105.50/mt — weaker, tracking energy downside
• Coal (API4 May): $111.50/mt — relatively supported, though softer
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.80/mt, down 0.14% — firm, with strong underlying support
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,372/mt, up 1.81% — higher, supported by sentiment and structure
• Chrome Concentrate (40–42% CIF China): $318/mt — stable, with subdued demand

What Matters Today
• Energy markets softened sharply on improving diplomatic signals around U.S.–Iran negotiations
• Oil and gas led the move lower, while bulk and base metals showed mixed resilience
• Coal tracked energy weakness, while iron ore and copper remained supported by fundamentals
• Markets remain highly headline-driven, with pricing sensitive to negotiation outcomes

Coal
Coal markets declined in line with the broader energy complex, following a sharp bearish reaction to reports that Iran is reviewing a U.S.-proposed peace framework.
Brent crude and European gas both fell significantly intraday, with losses of around 12% at the lows before recovering into the close. Despite the rebound, both markets ended materially weaker, dragging coal prices lower. API2 led declines, falling by close to $6 after trading at even lower levels earlier in the session.
Coal continues to track energy directionally, with limited independent momentum in the current environment. While underlying demand remains stable, price action is being driven almost entirely by developments in the broader energy complex.

Coal Curves
• API2: Sharply lower, reflecting Atlantic basin exposure to energy sentiment
• API4: Softer, though relatively more resilient
• Spread: Continues to reflect regional demand and freight dynamics

Trade Insight
• Markets are increasingly trading on binary geopolitical outcomes
• Coal remains a derivative of oil and gas direction in the short term
• Metals are showing resilience due to cost support and supply absorption
• Price direction across the complex hinges on credible progress in negotiations

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets fell sharply, with Brent declining below $103/bbl as optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement weighed on prices.
The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal and a response expected via regional intermediaries. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to price direction.
Despite the softer sentiment, physical flows remain constrained. The U.S. has indicated a pause in its naval escort programme, but shipping volumes through the Strait are still well below normal levels, and supply disruption persists. Inventories continue to absorb part of the shock, maintaining a degree of structural tightness.
Near-term price direction will be driven by negotiation outcomes. A confirmed agreement could trigger a sharp correction as supply returns, while any breakdown in talks would likely see a rapid rebound in prices.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices rose sharply, supported by continued destocking and absorption of previously restricted port inventories. Demand remains relatively firm, with steel production still operating at elevated levels despite some moderation in pig iron output. Rising costs and tightening margins may cap further upside, though near-term support remains intact.
Copper
Copper moved higher, holding above $13,000/t as sentiment improved. However, elevated inventories and softer demand signals—particularly in China—are limiting upside. The market remains balanced between structural support and near-term demand uncertainty, with pricing driven by both macro developments and inventory trends.
Chrome Ore
Chrome markets were broadly stable, with spot prices unchanged and futures supported by cost pressures. Post-holiday demand remains subdued, with high inventories weighing on sentiment. In the near term, the market is expected to remain sideways, balancing firm costs against cautious buying.

Market Regime
Diplomatic-driven correction / Softer energy / Supported bulk / Resilient metals

Closing View
Markets are entering a critical phase, with pricing increasingly driven by expectations around a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The sharp correction in energy highlights the sensitivity of markets to shifts in perceived supply risk.
Despite this, underlying structural tightness across energy and industrial inputs remains in place, providing continued support to bulk and base metals. Until there is definitive clarity on the outcome of negotiations and the normalisation of supply flows, markets are likely to remain volatile, with price direction dictated by geopolitical developments rather than purely fundamental drivers.

LCB Market Brief – 23 April 2026

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London Commodity News

*Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)*

  • *Brent Crude:* $102.93/bbl, up 1.00% — elevated, with sustained supply disruption risk
  • *Coal (API2 April):* $102.35/mt — supported, tracking strength across the energy complex
  • *Coal (API4 April):* $105.50/mt — firm, with export sentiment holding
  • *Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe):* $107.20/mt, up 0.05% — stable, underpinned by demand and tighter supply
  • *Copper (LME 3M):* $13,442/mt, down 1.60% — softer, with macro pressure offsetting supply risks
  • *Manganese Ore (42% Mn CIF China):* $5.40/mtu — firm, supported by rising costs and import demand

*What Matters Today*

  • Markets remain firmly supply-driven, with disruption to key trade routes dominating sentiment
  • Energy continues to lead, with oil holding above $100/bbl on sustained supply constraints
  • Coal is supported by energy strength, though physical markets remain well supplied
  • Metals are mixed, balancing cost support with softer near-term demand signals

*Coal*

Coal markets extended gains in line with the broader energy complex, supported by ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of progress toward de-escalation.

Front-month Brent crude and European gas rose by approximately 1.5% and 2% respectively, providing support to coal swaps, with Newcastle once again leading the move higher. However, the physical Newcastle market remains adequately supplied, limiting upside in the prompt portion of the curve.

Coal continues to track energy directionally, though with more muted price action. While sentiment remains supportive, physical availability—particularly in the Pacific—continues to cap near-term gains.

*Coal Curves (LCB Data)*

  • *API2*: Supported by broader energy strength
  • *API4:* Holding firm, reflecting stable export dynamics
  • *Spread:* Continues to reflect freight and regional supply factors

*Trade Insight*

  • Energy markets remain the primary driver, with coal following oil-led sentiment
  • Physical oversupply in parts of the coal market is capping prompt upside despite stronger derivatives
  • Metals are increasingly influenced by input costs, particularly sulphur and energy
  • Shipping disruption remains the core transmission channel across commodities

*Market Focus: Brent Crude*

Oil markets remain elevated, with Brent holding above $100/bbl as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.

The Strait is now effectively blockaded by both the United States and Iran, with reports suggesting more than 800 vessels are stranded on either side. This has reinforced concerns over a sustained and material supply shock, with estimates indicating potential disruption of up to 13 million barrels per day.

Tensions have escalated further through reciprocal vessel seizures and increased military activity. Donald Trump has signalled a more assertive approach to securing the route, while Iran has moved to assert greater control over transit, including proposals to introduce tolling mechanisms.

Despite the extension of a ceasefire reducing immediate infrastructure risks, the continued closure of the Strait remains the dominant factor underpinning prices. Until access is restored, oil is expected to remain elevated and highly sensitive to developments in shipping flows and military activity.

*Additional Markets*

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices eased slightly, with futures and spot prices softening despite supportive fundamentals. Demand remains firm, driven by restocking ahead of China’s Labour Day holiday and sustained steel output. At the same time, reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil have tightened port inventories, providing underlying support. The market remains balanced, with near-term weakness offset by strong demand and constrained supply.

*Copper*
Copper retreated from recent highs, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. While supply-side concerns—particularly around sulphuric acid availability—continue to provide support, signs of softer spot demand in China have emerged, including a shift from premiums to discounts. The market is currently trading cautiously, balancing cost pressures with evolving demand conditions.

*Manganese Ore*
Manganese ore markets remain firm, supported by rising imports into China and increasing cost pressures. South African supply has driven higher volumes, while elevated electricity and freight costs continue to push CIF prices higher. Demand recovery remains uneven, with regional variations in alloy production, but overall sentiment is supported by cost-driven pricing dynamics.

*Market Regime*

*Supply shock / Elevated energy / Supported bulk / Mixed metals*

Closing View

The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the defining feature across commodity markets, sustaining elevated energy prices and reinforcing supply-side risk. Oil is firmly in control of broader sentiment, with coal and other energy-linked commodities following directionally.

While bulk commodities remain supported by underlying demand and tightening supply, metals are increasingly caught between rising input costs and softer near-term consumption signals. Until there is clarity on the reopening of key trade routes and the trajectory of geopolitical developments, markets are likely to remain volatile and driven by supply risk rather than purely fundamental demand trends.

Market Brief – 21st April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (17:10 GMT)

  • Brent Crude: $98.00/bbl, up 2.64% — supported, with geopolitical risk premium still partially embedded
  • Coal (API2 April): $102.00/mt — firmer, tracking strength across the energy complex
  • Coal (API4 April): $105.00/mt — supported, with stronger export sentiment
  • Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $107.20/mt, up 0.05% — stable to firm, underpinned by demand and tighter inventories
  • Copper (LME 3M): $13,228.50/mt, down 0.34% — rangebound, with macro and FX pressures offsetting demand
  • Lead (LME 3M): $1,962.50/mt, down 0.61% — slightly weaker, with subdued spot demand

What Matters Today

  • Markets remain highly reactive, with sentiment shifting rapidly on geopolitical headlines
  • Energy continues to lead, with oil and gas rebounding on renewed conflict expectations
  • Bulk commodities are supported by restocking demand and tight inventories
  • Metals are mixed, with copper rangebound and lead showing tentative support

Coal

Coal markets strengthened in line with the broader energy complex, as renewed geopolitical tension drove a rebound in oil and gas prices. Reports suggesting the United States may not extend the ceasefire with Iran beyond Wednesday have increased expectations of a prolonged conflict, supporting energy markets across the board.

European gas prices rose sharply, while coal followed with broad gains across indices. Newcastle swaps once again led the move, reflecting higher sensitivity to shifts in global energy sentiment.

Despite the rally, coal continues to exhibit more measured price movements compared to oil and gas, supported by stable demand and relatively balanced physical fundamentals. In the near term, coal is expected to track energy directionally, with volatility driven primarily by geopolitical developments.

  • API2: Firming alongside broader energy strength
  • API4: Supported by improving export sentiment and regional demand
  • Spread: Reflects freight dynamics and ongoing logistical constraints

Trade Insight

  • Energy markets are once again dictating direction, with coal responding to oil-led sentiment shifts
  • Bulk commodities remain supported by real demand rather than speculative flows
  • Metals continue to balance strong underlying consumption with macro and FX pressures
  • Geopolitical developments remain the primary catalyst across all commodity classes

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil prices eased slightly after a sharp rally, with Brent holding near $98/bbl as markets balanced supply disruption risks against uncertainty around diplomatic progress.

Recent gains were driven by heightened tensions in the Gulf, including the seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel and renewed restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. These developments pushed prices higher as traders priced in the risk of constrained supply routes.

However, mixed signals around potential negotiations have capped further upside. While the United States has indicated a willingness to engage in talks, Iran’s participation remains uncertain, leaving markets caught between the risk of escalation and the possibility of de-escalation.

As a result, oil continues to trade with a partial geopolitical premium, with volatility driven by incoming headlines. Elevated prices are also beginning to raise broader concerns around inflation and global growth, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to developments in the region.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices moved higher, supported by restocking demand ahead of China’s May Labour Day holiday and declining inventories. Stable blast furnace utilisation continues to underpin consumption, while emerging supply-side risks—particularly fuel-related disruptions—are adding support. The market is expected to remain firm but volatile in the near term.

Copper
Copper traded largely sideways, with the market lacking clear direction. A firmer dollar limited upside, while ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept sentiment cautious. In China, refined output reached record levels, indicating strong supply. The market is expected to remain rangebound until clearer signals emerge.

Lead
Lead prices edged higher despite subdued trading activity. Modest buying interest has provided some support, though demand from battery producers remains weak. Rising energy costs are beginning to influence pricing expectations, but gains are likely to remain gradual without a stronger demand recovery.

Market Regime

Headline-driven / Firm energy / Supported bulk / Rangebound metals

Closing View

Markets remain caught between competing forces, with geopolitical risk continuing to drive short-term price action while underlying demand provides support across key commodities. Energy remains the dominant influence, with oil setting the tone for coal and broader market sentiment.

Until there is greater clarity on the direction of U.S.–Iran negotiations and the stability of key supply routes, volatility is expected to persist. In this environment, markets will remain highly reactive, with price direction dictated more by headlines than by structural fundamentals.

Market Brief – 20th April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • Brent Crude: $95.40/bbl, up 5.55% — rebounding on renewed geopolitical tension and supply risk
  • Coal (API2 April): $102.00/mt — softer into the close after early strength alongside energy
  • Coal (API4 April): $104.50/mt — relatively supported, though directional bias weakening
  • Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $107.00/mt, down 0.23% — stable, supported by demand and tight inventories
  • Copper (LME 3M): $13,290/mt, down 0.43% — mixed, with demand support offset by macro uncertainty
  • Chrome Concentrate (40/42%, CIF China): $317/mt — subdued, with weak demand and high inventories

What Matters Today

  • Markets opened the week on a more cautious footing, as renewed Middle East tensions reversed last week’s optimism
  • Energy has reasserted itself as the primary driver, with oil rebounding sharply on supply disruption risk
  • Bulk commodities remain supported by resilient demand, though increasingly sensitive to macro signals
  • Metals are mixed, with cost pressures rising alongside geopolitical uncertainty

Coal

Coal markets tracked the broader energy complex, with early gains reversing into the close as volatility returned. Strength in oil—driven by renewed concerns over disruption through key shipping routes—initially supported coal prices, before weaker sentiment into the afternoon saw indices finish marginally lower. Newcastle prices led the downside among benchmarks.

European gas traded more steadily, easing during the session but still closing higher on the day, reflecting a more balanced supply outlook relative to oil.

Overall, coal continues to demonstrate relative resilience, with price moves less pronounced than in oil and gas. The market remains supported by stable demand and ongoing logistical constraints, though short-term direction is increasingly dictated by developments in the energy complex.

Coal Curves

  • API2: Slightly weaker into the close despite early support from oil
  • API4: Holding relatively firm, supported by constrained export flows
  • Spread: Continues to reflect freight dynamics and regional supply tightness

Trade Insight

  • Energy volatility is once again dictating direction, with coal following oil but with muted downside
  • The intraday reversal highlights a market driven by headline risk rather than structural shifts
  • Cost pressures—particularly fuel and sulphur—are increasingly feeding into production economics across metals
  • Logistics and shipping disruption remain the key transmission mechanism across commodities

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil markets rebounded sharply, with Brent moving back above $95/bbl as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated over the weekend.

The seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel, alongside renewed hostilities in the Gulf of Oman, has undermined confidence in the previously announced ceasefire. Iran’s decision to again restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz—after only recently declaring it fully open—has reintroduced a significant geopolitical risk premium.

With negotiations now uncertain and both sides signalling the potential for further escalation, the market is increasingly pricing in the risk of prolonged disruption to global oil flows.

While diplomatic discussions are still expected in the coming days, sentiment has shifted decisively. Oil is likely to remain highly volatile, with prices reacting rapidly to both geopolitical developments and any changes in shipping activity through key routes.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore edged higher in early trading before stabilising, supported by firm demand and relatively tight inventories. Strong steel production continues to limit stock build-up, providing a supportive backdrop. However, the market remains sensitive to broader macro developments, with volatility expected to persist despite constructive fundamentals.

Copper
Copper traded mixed, with stronger pricing in Shanghai offset by softer performance in London. Continued inventory drawdowns and firm import premiums point to resilient Chinese demand. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment, leaving the market balanced between supportive fundamentals and macro risk.

Chrome
Chrome markets remain subdued, with weak demand and elevated inventories continuing to pressure prices. Ferrochrome producers remain cautious, with limited spot activity. While cost-side support persists, it has not translated into stronger demand, leaving the market with a slight downward bias.

Sulphur
Sulphur markets are tightening, driven by disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. Restrictions on flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with export limitations from key producers, have pushed prices higher.

This is feeding into rising production costs across the metals complex, particularly for copper and nickel, where sulphuric acid is a critical input. The impact is already evident in tighter margins, with further pressure likely if supply constraints persist.

Market Regime

Renewed risk premium / Volatile energy / Supported bulk / Cost-driven metals

Closing View

The re-escalation of tensions has quickly reversed last week’s improvement in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of current market conditions. Energy markets have once again taken the lead, with oil volatility feeding through into coal and the broader commodity complex.

While underlying demand fundamentals remain supportive, particularly in bulk commodities, markets are increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk and supply chain uncertainty. Until there is greater clarity on negotiations and the stability of key trade routes, commodities are likely to remain volatile and highly responsive to headlines.

Market Brief – 13th April 2026

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Market Brief – 13th April 2026

London Commodity News

Energy-led strength returning, with metals selectively supported and bulk markets lacking conviction.

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • API2 (April): $105.00/mt
  • API4 (April): $105.50/mt
  • Brent Crude: $101.30/bbl, up 6.41%
  • SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.05/mt, down 0.24%
  • LME 3-Month Copper: $13,048.50/mt, up 1.49%
  • Manganese Ore (South African 42Mn/12Fe): $5.33/mtu CIF Tianjin

Quick Observations

Energy firming again → Brent back above $100 reinforces renewed risk premium

  • Coal convergence → API2 and API4 now almost flat vs each other (important signal)
  • Copper strength → pushing higher despite macro uncertainty (tightness showing)
  • Iron ore steady/soft → still lacking conviction despite stronger energy

Market Overview

  • Markets have shifted back into escalation mode, with the breakdown in U.S.–Iran negotiations reintroducing supply risk
  • Energy is once again leading, with oil back above $100/bbl and risk premium rebuilding rapidly
  • Bulk and base metals remain more measured, supported by underlying demand and cost pressures
  • The key driver has returned to Hormuz flow risk, with freight and logistics likely to follow

Coal

Coal prices moved higher in line with the broader energy complex, tracking the sharp gains seen in oil and European gas following reports that the U.S. may move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz if ceasefire negotiations fail. Early in the session, coal indices rose by around $3 as markets reacted to renewed escalation risk and the potential for disruption to global energy flows.

As the session progressed, gains moderated alongside a partial pullback in oil and gas, though coal still closed modestly higher overall. API2 settled around $105/mt, while API4 firmed to approximately $105.50/mt, marking a notable shift with seaborne export pricing now trading at a premium to European delivered coal.

This inversion of the API2/API4 relationship is significant. It suggests tightening conditions in the export market relative to Europe, likely driven by stronger seaborne demand, firmer freight dynamics, and the market’s increasing focus on potential supply disruptions. At the same time, European pricing appears more anchored, reflecting softer regional demand signals and greater sensitivity to gas markets.

Overall, the price action reinforces the view that coal remains highly responsive to movements in the broader energy complex, but with growing regional divergence. In the near term, direction will continue to be dictated by developments around Hormuz, with the spread between API2 and API4 serving as a key indicator of how physical flows and freight dynamics are evolving.

Coal Curves (LCB Data)

  • API2 (DES ARA): Remains relatively anchored despite the broader energy rally, with the curve showing only modest firming. Front-end gains faded into the close, reflecting Europe’s continued sensitivity to gas markets and softer regional demand signals.
  • API4 (FOB RBCT): Firmed more convincingly across the front of the curve, retaining a larger portion of early-session gains. This strength points to tightening conditions in the seaborne market and increased sensitivity to potential supply and freight disruption.
  • Spread (API4 > API2): The inversion, with API4 now trading at a premium to API2, is a notable shift. It highlights growing regional divergence, with export markets tightening relative to Europe. This spread will be a key indicator to watch—further widening would suggest escalating supply risk and freight constraints, while any reversal would indicate easing disruption concerns.
  • Intraday tone: Early strength driven by escalation risk gave way to partial consolidation, but the curve retains a firmer bias overall—particularly in seaborne markets—indicating that the market is beginning to price in potential disruption rather than purely reacting to headlines.

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Trade Insight

  • The market has moved from risk unwind back to risk build, with energy once again setting the tone
  • Coal is likely to lag oil on the upside, but fundamentals suggest downside is now more limited
  • Freight and logistics will be the next transmission mechanism, particularly if Hormuz disruption becomes physical rather than theoretical

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Brent crude surged back above $100/bbl following the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, marking a sharp reversal from last week’s ceasefire-driven sell-off. The move reflects a rapid reintroduction of supply risk into pricing, with the market once again focused on the vulnerability of one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

The collapse of negotiations and the escalation in rhetoric have significantly increased uncertainty around global supply flows. While alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have partially offset disruption risk, they are insufficient to replace volumes typically transiting Hormuz.

The situation remains highly fluid, with Tehran warning of retaliation and the risk of broader regional escalation increasing. As a result, the geopolitical premium has returned quickly, and oil markets are expected to remain volatile. Sustained prices above $100/bbl could begin to weigh more heavily on global growth expectations, reinforcing concerns around inflation and stagflationary pressures.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore moved higher, supported by stronger steel production in China as improved margins encouraged increased output. However, gains remain capped by ample supply, with rising shipments and increased arrivals continuing to weigh on the broader balance. The market is expected to trade with a modest upward bias.

Copper
Copper remained firm, supported by strong physical demand in China and tight availability of near-term material. Elevated spot premiums and a contango structure continue to encourage holding rather than selling. Despite macro uncertainty, the market remains well supported in the near term.

Manganese Ore
Manganese prices remain supported by elevated production costs and geopolitical factors, particularly in South Africa. However, demand remains mixed, and the market is expected to soften slightly in the near term as downstream alloy production remains constrained.

Market Regime

Geopolitical escalation / Firm energy / Supported metals / Tightening export markets

Closing View

The market has rapidly transitioned back into an escalation-driven environment, with energy once again dictating direction across the commodity complex. The reintroduction of supply risk has reversed last week’s sentiment shift, placing renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the stability of global trade flows.

While metals continue to draw support from underlying demand and cost pressures, energy remains the primary driver. Until there is greater clarity on the trajectory of the conflict and the impact on physical supply, markets are likely to remain volatile, reactive, and highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Market Brief – 9th April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • API2 (April): $105.70/mt
  • API4 (April): $105.00/mt
  • Brent Crude: $99.01/bbl, up 4.55%
  • SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $105.20/mt, unchanged
  • LME 3-Month Copper: $12,678/mt, down 0.37%

Market Overview

  • Markets remain headline-driven, with sentiment shifting rapidly on developments in the Middle East
  • Energy has stabilised after the initial sell-off, with oil rebounding as doubts over Hormuz reopening resurface
  • Coal continues to track energy lower, though with more limited downside
  • Metals remain mixed, reflecting weak underlying demand and macro uncertainty

Coal

Coal markets saw a brief recovery in line with the broader energy complex during the morning session, following the sharp declines observed yesterday. Early strength was driven by continued uncertainty around the implications of the ceasefire for near-term supply, with both European gas and Brent crude rising by around 3% before reversing later in the day.

The recovery proved short-lived, however, as renewed headlines—particularly around negotiations between Israel and Lebanon—reintroduced caution and weighed on prices into the afternoon. As a result, API2 closed lower on the day, while seaborne markets showed greater resilience, with NEWC and API4 remaining modestly supported.

Fundamentally, the market continues to balance structurally tight conditions against shifting sentiment. ARA inventories rose by 200,000 tonnes to 2.53 million tonnes, recovering from recent lows but still historically tight, while low Rhine river levels continue to pose a risk to inland deliveries and restocking efforts.

In export markets, South African coal remains under pressure, with bids across the quality spectrum easing. However, the relative strength seen in API4 and NEWC suggests that physical demand and regional dynamics are providing some support, even as broader energy sentiment remains the dominant driver in the near term.

Coal Curves (LCB Data)

  • API2: Weakened on the day after failing to hold early gains, with the curve reflecting continued sensitivity to European gas and broader energy sentiment. Front-end softness suggests limited conviction in near-term demand despite structurally tight inventories.
  • API4 / NEWC: More resilient, with parts of the curve holding onto early-session gains. This relative strength points to ongoing support from seaborne demand and tighter physical dynamics in export markets.
  • Spread: The divergence between API2 and seaborne curves is widening slightly, highlighting the increasing importance of regional factors and freight dynamics. This will be a key indicator to watch if energy markets remain volatile.

·

Trade Insight

  • The market has shifted from risk premium unwinding to reassessing physical disruption, particularly around Hormuz
  • Coal’s relative stability highlights its role as a lagging energy indicator, with demand support cushioning downside
  • Freight and logistics—not outright supply—are likely to be the next key drivers across energy and bulk commodities

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil prices rebounded after the sharp sell-off, as doubts over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz quickly resurfaced. While the ceasefire initially triggered a significant unwind of geopolitical risk premium, the lack of meaningful vessel traffic has reinforced concerns that supply disruptions remain unresolved.

Shipping activity remains extremely limited, with operators hesitant to resume transit amid ongoing security risks, elevated insurance costs, and uncertainty around safe passage. Renewed tensions in the region, including additional military activity and retaliatory threats, have further undermined confidence in the ceasefire.

As a result, the geopolitical premium has only partially unwound. In the near term, oil is expected to remain supported and volatile, with price direction closely tied to developments in shipping flows and the durability of the ceasefire.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore extended its decline, with prices under pressure from ample supply and elevated inventories. Trading remains subdued, with steel mills focused on cost control and limiting procurement. Without a clear demand catalyst, the market is likely to remain weak in the near term.

Copper
Copper eased from recent highs as renewed geopolitical tension and rising energy prices weighed on sentiment. Softer import demand and rising global inventories, particularly on the LME, continue to limit upside. The market remains macro-sensitive, with further direction dependent on demand recovery.

Market Regime

Partial risk unwind / Volatile energy / Weak bulk / Cautious metals

Closing View

Markets have transitioned from an initial unwind of geopolitical risk to a more complex phase driven by uncertainty around physical supply and logistics. Energy remains the dominant driver, with oil setting the tone for coal and broader commodity markets.

While some risk premium has been removed, the absence of normalised shipping flows and the fragility of the ceasefire suggest that volatility will persist. Until there is clear evidence of sustained stability in the region, markets are likely to remain reactive, with price direction dictated by headlines rather than fundamentals.

End of Day Market Brief

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London Commodity News

8 April 2026

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • API2 (April): $107.25mt
  • API4 (April): $105.00/mt
  • Brent Crude: $94.98/bbl, down 13.03%
  • SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.40/mt, down 0.70%
  • LME 3-Month Copper: $12,681.50/mt, up 3.07%
  • Chrome South African 40%–42% Cr: $319/mt CIF China

Market Overview

  • Markets have moved into broad geopolitical de-escalation mode following the announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
  • The sharpest reaction has come in energy, where crude has repriced lower as worst-case Hormuz disruption scenarios have been stripped out.
  • Even so, the risk premium has not disappeared entirely, as shippers and refiners are still waiting for practical clarity on safe passage, routing and backlog clearance.
  • Base metals have responded more selectively, with improved sentiment helping copper, while bulk markets such as iron ore remain constrained by softer underlying demand signals.

Coal Curves (LCB Data)

API2 / API4 Curve (Midday)

  • API2: Firmer prompt pricing, though broader conviction across the curve remains limited.
  • API4: Holding below API2, with relative weakness reflecting regional dynamics.
  • Spread: Key to watch whether easing geopolitical tension feeds through into freight and begins to compress Atlantic versus export market pricing.

Trade Insight

  • The ceasefire has removed the most extreme upside scenario for oil, but logistics normalisation is lagging price normalisation, which remains critical for freight-sensitive commodities.
  • Energy has repriced rapidly; metals are now likely to revert to micro-driven fundamentals, particularly Chinese demand and inventory signals.
  • If the ceasefire holds, the next phase shifts from crisis response to speed of physical market normalisation across shipping and trade flows.

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Brent crude has fallen sharply following confirmation of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with the market rapidly unwinding the geopolitical premium built around the Strait of Hormuz. The move reflects a reassessment of immediate supply disruption risk across one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

However, uncertainty remains. Shipping activity has yet to fully normalise, backlogs persist, and key operational details around safe passage remain unresolved. The ceasefire itself is temporary, leaving the market exposed to renewed volatility should tensions re-escalate.

As a result, while pricing has adjusted lower, a residual risk premium is likely to remain until physical flows and transit conditions return to a more stable footing.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore: Prices softened modestly, with cautious sentiment persisting across both futures and spot markets. While steel production remains supportive, subdued trading activity and elevated inventories continue to cap upside.

Copper: Copper rallied strongly, supported by improved risk sentiment and resilient physical demand indicators. However, buying remains measured, suggesting that sustained upside will require continued confirmation from inventories and real demand.

Chrome: Chrome remained broadly stable, with balanced pricing reflecting mixed availability and moderate demand. Any easing in freight costs could introduce mild downward pressure, though the near-term outlook remains steady.

Market Regime

Post-crisis repricing / Softer energy complex / Selectively firmer base metals

Closing View

The speed of the repricing across energy markets highlights how quickly geopolitical risk can unwind once de-escalation appears credible. However, the market is not yet operating under normal conditions. Energy has adjusted first, while other commodities are now reverting to underlying fundamentals.

The key question from here is not whether the risk premium has fallen, but whether physical markets—shipping, freight, and trade flows—can normalise in line with price. Until that is clear, markets are likely to remain reactive and sensitive to further developments.

Full curves, downloadable data and historical access available via LCB Intelligence.

London Commodity News

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2nd February 2026

Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $101.50/mt, January API4 $94.00/mt
Brent Crude: $66.31/bll – Down 4.36%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $102.80/mt – _Up 0.24%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,920.50/mt – Down 1.97%
SMM Chrome Conc, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $298.50/mt CIF China (In Bulk)
LME 3-Month Lead $1,967/mt Down 2.09%

_Markets started the week on the back foot as risk premiums unwound across energy and metals, with easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar triggering sharp corrections after January’s rally.

Coal
Energy markets remained highly volatile, with European gas prices tumbling nearly 14% by the close following last week’s sharp rallies, while front-month Brent crude fell close to 5%. A modest easing in U.S.–Iran tensions and more normalised temperatures across large parts of the U.S. helped alleviate concerns around LNG supply, driving the move lower. Coal prices softened in response, though the pullback was notably more muted compared with the broader energy complex.

Brent Crude
Oil prices suffered their steepest one-day fall in over six months, with Brent sliding more than 4.5% to around $66/bbl as geopolitical fears eased. Comments from U.S. President Trump confirming talks with Iran, alongside signals from Tehran that negotiations are possible, reduced concerns over imminent supply disruptions in the Middle East and prompted a rapid unwinding of January’s risk premium. The sell-off was compounded by a broader correction across commodities and a firmer U.S. dollar. Fundamentally, supply conditions remain comfortable. OPEC+ reiterated its plan to keep output unchanged in March, while U.S. production continues to recover from winter-related disruptions and Kazakhstan edges closer to restarting output at Tengiz. Although speculative positioning had turned increasingly bullish in recent weeks, the shift in the geopolitical narrative has left prices vulnerable to further downside should tensions continue to ease.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened, with the benchmark I2605 contract closing down 1.26% at 783 yuan/mt and spot prices falling 5–8 yuan/mt. Trading activity remained subdued as steel mills focused strictly on meeting immediate production needs, while trader participation thinned.
With the pre-holiday restocking cycle nearing completion, buying support is fading just as port inventories remain elevated. At the same time, steel mills face margin pressure and environmental constraints, limiting appetite to lift output. These factors point to a period of softer demand, leaving iron ore prices vulnerable to continued volatility and weakness in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper extended its pullback for a second session as risk appetite deteriorated and demand slowed ahead of China’s Lunar New Year. The SHFE copper contract slumped more than 7%, while LME three-month copper fell nearly 3%, following last week’s record highs driven by speculative buying.
The retreat reflects a broader metals sell-off after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair strengthened the dollar and prompted profit-taking. With Chinese demand seasonally softening and speculative positions being unwound, copper is likely to remain volatile despite still-tight longer-term supply fundamentals.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices held firm, with spot offers at Tianjin Port largely unchanged and overseas futures continuing to edge higher. Winter stockpiling is nearing its end, tempering inquiry activity, but price sentiment remains supported by higher offshore offers and expectations of tighter supply post-holiday. Recent approval of lower electricity tariffs for South African ferrochrome producers may stimulate output, potentially tightening future chrome ore availability. Meanwhile, constrained shipments from Zimbabwe during the rainy season continue to limit supply, underpinning expectations of a stable-to-firm market in the near term.

Lead
Lead prices remained under pressure amid persistent inventory buildup of domestic ingots. As the Chinese New Year approaches, both smelters and battery producers are gradually entering holiday mode, reducing market activity on both the supply and demand sides.
Sentiment was further weighed down by SHFE’s announcement that secondary lead will be introduced as an alternative delivery brand for futures, increasing deliverable supply and dampening near-term price expectations.

Overall, the session marked a clear shift from risk-on to risk-off, with easing geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand factors driving sharp corrections. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets reassess fundamentals heading into the holiday period.

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