Market Brief – 13th April 2026
London Commodity News
Energy-led strength returning, with metals selectively supported and bulk markets lacking conviction.
Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
- API2 (April): $105.00/mt
- API4 (April): $105.50/mt
- Brent Crude: $101.30/bbl, up 6.41%
- SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.05/mt, down 0.24%
- LME 3-Month Copper: $13,048.50/mt, up 1.49%
- Manganese Ore (South African 42Mn/12Fe): $5.33/mtu CIF Tianjin
Quick Observations
Energy firming again → Brent back above $100 reinforces renewed risk premium
- Coal convergence → API2 and API4 now almost flat vs each other (important signal)
- Copper strength → pushing higher despite macro uncertainty (tightness showing)
- Iron ore steady/soft → still lacking conviction despite stronger energy
Market Overview
- Markets have shifted back into escalation mode, with the breakdown in U.S.–Iran negotiations reintroducing supply risk
- Energy is once again leading, with oil back above $100/bbl and risk premium rebuilding rapidly
- Bulk and base metals remain more measured, supported by underlying demand and cost pressures
- The key driver has returned to Hormuz flow risk, with freight and logistics likely to follow
Coal
Coal prices moved higher in line with the broader energy complex, tracking the sharp gains seen in oil and European gas following reports that the U.S. may move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz if ceasefire negotiations fail. Early in the session, coal indices rose by around $3 as markets reacted to renewed escalation risk and the potential for disruption to global energy flows.
As the session progressed, gains moderated alongside a partial pullback in oil and gas, though coal still closed modestly higher overall. API2 settled around $105/mt, while API4 firmed to approximately $105.50/mt, marking a notable shift with seaborne export pricing now trading at a premium to European delivered coal.
This inversion of the API2/API4 relationship is significant. It suggests tightening conditions in the export market relative to Europe, likely driven by stronger seaborne demand, firmer freight dynamics, and the market’s increasing focus on potential supply disruptions. At the same time, European pricing appears more anchored, reflecting softer regional demand signals and greater sensitivity to gas markets.
Overall, the price action reinforces the view that coal remains highly responsive to movements in the broader energy complex, but with growing regional divergence. In the near term, direction will continue to be dictated by developments around Hormuz, with the spread between API2 and API4 serving as a key indicator of how physical flows and freight dynamics are evolving.
Coal Curves (LCB Data)
- API2 (DES ARA): Remains relatively anchored despite the broader energy rally, with the curve showing only modest firming. Front-end gains faded into the close, reflecting Europe’s continued sensitivity to gas markets and softer regional demand signals.
- API4 (FOB RBCT): Firmed more convincingly across the front of the curve, retaining a larger portion of early-session gains. This strength points to tightening conditions in the seaborne market and increased sensitivity to potential supply and freight disruption.
- Spread (API4 > API2): The inversion, with API4 now trading at a premium to API2, is a notable shift. It highlights growing regional divergence, with export markets tightening relative to Europe. This spread will be a key indicator to watch—further widening would suggest escalating supply risk and freight constraints, while any reversal would indicate easing disruption concerns.
- Intraday tone: Early strength driven by escalation risk gave way to partial consolidation, but the curve retains a firmer bias overall—particularly in seaborne markets—indicating that the market is beginning to price in potential disruption rather than purely reacting to headlines.
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Trade Insight
- The market has moved from risk unwind back to risk build, with energy once again setting the tone
- Coal is likely to lag oil on the upside, but fundamentals suggest downside is now more limited
- Freight and logistics will be the next transmission mechanism, particularly if Hormuz disruption becomes physical rather than theoretical
Market Focus: Brent Crude
Brent crude surged back above $100/bbl following the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, marking a sharp reversal from last week’s ceasefire-driven sell-off. The move reflects a rapid reintroduction of supply risk into pricing, with the market once again focused on the vulnerability of one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
The collapse of negotiations and the escalation in rhetoric have significantly increased uncertainty around global supply flows. While alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have partially offset disruption risk, they are insufficient to replace volumes typically transiting Hormuz.
The situation remains highly fluid, with Tehran warning of retaliation and the risk of broader regional escalation increasing. As a result, the geopolitical premium has returned quickly, and oil markets are expected to remain volatile. Sustained prices above $100/bbl could begin to weigh more heavily on global growth expectations, reinforcing concerns around inflation and stagflationary pressures.
Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore moved higher, supported by stronger steel production in China as improved margins encouraged increased output. However, gains remain capped by ample supply, with rising shipments and increased arrivals continuing to weigh on the broader balance. The market is expected to trade with a modest upward bias.
Copper
Copper remained firm, supported by strong physical demand in China and tight availability of near-term material. Elevated spot premiums and a contango structure continue to encourage holding rather than selling. Despite macro uncertainty, the market remains well supported in the near term.
Manganese Ore
Manganese prices remain supported by elevated production costs and geopolitical factors, particularly in South Africa. However, demand remains mixed, and the market is expected to soften slightly in the near term as downstream alloy production remains constrained.
Market Regime
Geopolitical escalation / Firm energy / Supported metals / Tightening export markets
Closing View
The market has rapidly transitioned back into an escalation-driven environment, with energy once again dictating direction across the commodity complex. The reintroduction of supply risk has reversed last week’s sentiment shift, placing renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the stability of global trade flows.
While metals continue to draw support from underlying demand and cost pressures, energy remains the primary driver. Until there is greater clarity on the trajectory of the conflict and the impact on physical supply, markets are likely to remain volatile, reactive, and highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.
