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Market Brief – 8 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 BST)
• Brent Crude: $101.57/bbl, up 1.51% — supported, despite easing geopolitical risk premium
• Coal (API2 May): $107.10/mt — firmer, tracking broader energy stability
• Coal (API4 May): $114.00/mt — supported, with continued export strength
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.95/mt, down 0.14% — steady, underpinned by resilient demand
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,572/mt, up 1.32% — strong, supported by structural supply concerns

What Matters Today
• Markets ended the week balancing improving diplomatic sentiment against ongoing physical disruption
• Energy prices stabilised, though underlying supply conditions remain exceptionally tight
• Bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient industrial demand and elevated costs
• Metals remain underpinned by structural supply constraints and logistical disruption

Coal
Coal markets traded firmer, supported by a more stable energy complex following the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude and European gas both ended the session modestly higher, helping coal prices recover steadily through the day.
The move was less aggressive than earlier rallies, but broad-based support remained visible across indices as markets continued to price in elevated energy risk despite improving diplomatic sentiment.
Physical fundamentals remain constructive. Asian demand continues to hold firm, particularly across India, while European coal burn remains supported by relatively favourable economics versus gas. With supply chains still constrained and freight costs elevated, the market continues to retain a structurally supported tone despite softer geopolitical pricing.

Coal Curves
• API2: Modestly firmer, supported by stable Atlantic sentiment
• API4: Continuing to outperform on export demand strength
• Spread: Reflects freight costs and regional supply tightness

Trade Insight
• Markets remain trapped between diplomatic optimism and physical supply reality
• Coal continues to demonstrate underlying resilience despite energy volatility
• Metals are increasingly supported by structural supply-side constraints rather than cyclical demand
• Logistics and inventory tightness remain the key drivers across commodity pricing

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets remained volatile, though Brent crude stabilised near $101/bbl after a sharp correction earlier in the week.
Comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the ceasefire with Iran remains intact helped reduce some geopolitical risk premium, despite renewed military clashes in the region. Markets interpreted the remarks as a signal that broader diplomatic discussions remain possible.
However, conditions across the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted. Since late February, shipping activity has operated at significantly reduced levels, materially constraining global crude flows and contributing to ongoing production outages across the Gulf.
According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 14 million barrels per day of supply continues to be affected by the disruption. While diplomatic progress has improved sentiment, physical market conditions remain exceptionally tight, leaving oil highly sensitive to any renewed escalation or breakdown in negotiations.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended gains for a fifth consecutive session, supported by resilient steel demand and strong mill margins in China. Blast furnace utilisation remains close to peak levels, underpinning consumption despite some moderation during the May Day holiday period. While rising Brazilian exports and developments at Simandou may add future supply pressure, current market focus remains centred on demand resilience and tightening inventories.
Copper
Copper strengthened further, reaching its highest levels since January at one stage during the week. The market continues to be supported by improving macro sentiment, structural demand growth linked to electrification and infrastructure, and ongoing supply concerns surrounding major mining operations such as Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
U.S. COMEX copper continues to outperform international benchmarks amid speculation around potential tariff measures and investor positioning linked to supply security concerns.
Sulphur
Sulphur markets remain in an acute supply lock-up phase, with physical availability tightening simultaneously across all major trade corridors. China’s withdrawal from sulphuric acid exports, Gulf logistics disruption, and export restrictions from Russia and Turkey have created a structurally undersupplied market.
Industrial impacts are intensifying across nickel, copper and fertiliser sectors, with supply security increasingly outweighing pricing considerations. Physical liquidity remains extremely limited, while logistical constraints continue to fragment global trade flows and elevate executable transaction costs.

Market Regime
Tight supply / Stable energy / Supported bulk / Structurally bullish metals

Closing View
Commodity markets continue to operate within an environment defined by constrained logistics, geopolitical uncertainty and structurally tight supply chains. While improving diplomatic sentiment between the United States and Iran has reduced some immediate risk premium, the underlying disruption to physical flows remains significant across energy and industrial commodities.
Coal and bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient demand and elevated freight costs, while metals remain increasingly driven by structural supply-side concerns. Until trade routes normalise and inventories rebuild more meaningfully, markets are likely to remain volatile, with physical availability continuing to dominate price direction across the commodity complex.

LCB Weekly Update by Nexus – 07/05/26

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Activity across the Far East and Southeast Asia was subdued this week, largely due to public holidays in China and Japan. Enquiry levels declined noticeably, although rates remained relatively firm, supported by a tight tonnage list. There is some expectation that this tightness may prove temporary, with both vessel availability and cargo volumes likely to increase once market participants return, leaving near-term direction uncertain.

In the Indian Ocean, tonnage availability increased as ongoing US–Iran discussions continued to weigh on sentiment. Market participants largely adopted a cautious, wait-and-see approach, while some operators have established alternative routing strategies to and from the Red Sea. However, elevated insurance premiums continue to impact the region. Limited cargo availability has led to heightened competition among owners. Further south, the South African market remained broadly balanced, although an anticipated influx of open vessels may place downward pressure on rates in the coming weeks.

In the Mediterranean and Black Sea, an oversupply of Handysize tonnage continues to cap rate upside. The upcoming Russian grain season is expected to absorb part of this excess capacity, with Russian loadings likely to command a premium. Fertiliser movements, particularly linked to Indian government tenders, have provided some support across both Handysize and Supramax segments. Congestion in parts of the western basin has marginally tightened supply, though this has had limited impact amid generally weak cargo demand.

The US Gulf market softened slightly week-on-week, with reduced grain enquiry contributing to a weaker tone. Tonnage availability remains stable, but limited fresh cargo has increased competition among owners, with some accepting lower rates. A number of vessels are now considering repositioning towards South America in search of improved opportunities.

On the North Coast of South America, weather-related disruptions have slowed cargo flows, contributing to softer rates. This has been compounded by an increase in ballasting vessels from the Caribbean, as weaker US Gulf conditions prompt repositioning. In contrast, the East Coast South America market has seen firmer rates, supported by increased grain export activity. In West Africa, a modest rise in cargo activity has been observed, primarily from deferred stems linked to previously high bunker costs. However, a persistent gap between owner and charterer expectations continues to limit deal flow.

Bunker prices have eased from recent peaks but remain elevated in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, alongside tighter global inventories and declining US crude and product stocks. Physical bunker markets across key hubs remain firm, with continued volatility expected. Current levels are holding at approximately $800/mt in Gibraltar and Singapore, and around $900/mt in Fujairah.

Geopolitical De-escalation Supports Risk Appetite and Select EM Currencies

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased notably following reports of progress in US–Iran peace negotiations. Additional support for de-escalation has come from China, which has called for a diplomatic resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has stabilised just above 98.00 after recent weakness driven by improving sentiment. Stronger-than-expected US private employment data has provided some offset, with markets now focused on upcoming jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls for further direction.

Improved risk sentiment has translated into stronger performance across higher-beta emerging market currencies. The South African Rand (ZAR) advanced by 1.62% to close at R16.3850, with additional gains seen in early trade. The move reflects both external support and underlying domestic resilience. Provided diplomatic momentum continues and broader risk appetite holds, the near-term bias for the Rand remains firm.

Rand Strength Supported by Structural Drivers

The Rand’s performance is consistent with a broader trend of relative outperformance among commodity-linked currencies. Elevated precious metals prices, particularly gold, have strengthened South Africa’s external position, while improved fiscal discipline and political stability following the formation of the Government of National Unity have reinforced investor confidence. A softer US dollar environment has further supported capital inflows.

South Africa’s commodity exposure remains a key advantage, with strong pricing across gold and platinum group metals supporting the trade balance. Current conditions suggest scope for continued consolidation of recent gains, particularly if oil prices stabilise and expectations for US monetary easing remain intact.

Divergence Across Emerging Markets

Performance across emerging market currencies remains uneven. While the Rand has strengthened, the Indian Rupee (INR) continues to face pressure, trading near multi-year lows around 94–95/USD. India’s dependence on imported energy leaves it more exposed to oil price volatility and external shocks, although underlying economic growth and policy support provide a degree of stability over the medium term.

More broadly, differentiation remains evident across EM FX. Commodity exporters with stronger external balances, including South Africa and parts of Latin America, are benefiting from the current environment, while energy importers remain more vulnerable. Overall, the asset class continues to be supported by improving global risk sentiment, a softer USD backdrop, and relatively attractive yield profiles.

Commodity Market Response

Commodity markets have reflected the shift in sentiment. Gold has rallied by nearly 3%, supported by reduced rate hike expectations, a weaker dollar, and softer energy prices, trading near $4,697/oz. Brent crude has declined by over 7% on optimism surrounding a potential resolution, though it continues to hold above $100/bbl, indicating that a degree of risk premium remains embedded.

Closing Remarks

Current market conditions reflect a transition from acute geopolitical stress towards cautious optimism, though the situation remains fluid. Emerging market currencies, particularly those with strong commodity exposure, are responding positively to improved sentiment. However, sustained stability will depend on the durability of diplomatic progress and the extent to which supply disruptions in key energy corridors are resolved.

LCB Market Brief – 6 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
• Brent Crude: $101.52/bbl, down 7.60% — sharply lower on improving diplomatic signals
• Coal (API2 May): $105.50/mt — weaker, tracking energy downside
• Coal (API4 May): $111.50/mt — relatively supported, though softer
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.80/mt, down 0.14% — firm, with strong underlying support
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,372/mt, up 1.81% — higher, supported by sentiment and structure
• Chrome Concentrate (40–42% CIF China): $318/mt — stable, with subdued demand

What Matters Today
• Energy markets softened sharply on improving diplomatic signals around U.S.–Iran negotiations
• Oil and gas led the move lower, while bulk and base metals showed mixed resilience
• Coal tracked energy weakness, while iron ore and copper remained supported by fundamentals
• Markets remain highly headline-driven, with pricing sensitive to negotiation outcomes

Coal
Coal markets declined in line with the broader energy complex, following a sharp bearish reaction to reports that Iran is reviewing a U.S.-proposed peace framework.
Brent crude and European gas both fell significantly intraday, with losses of around 12% at the lows before recovering into the close. Despite the rebound, both markets ended materially weaker, dragging coal prices lower. API2 led declines, falling by close to $6 after trading at even lower levels earlier in the session.
Coal continues to track energy directionally, with limited independent momentum in the current environment. While underlying demand remains stable, price action is being driven almost entirely by developments in the broader energy complex.

Coal Curves
• API2: Sharply lower, reflecting Atlantic basin exposure to energy sentiment
• API4: Softer, though relatively more resilient
• Spread: Continues to reflect regional demand and freight dynamics

Trade Insight
• Markets are increasingly trading on binary geopolitical outcomes
• Coal remains a derivative of oil and gas direction in the short term
• Metals are showing resilience due to cost support and supply absorption
• Price direction across the complex hinges on credible progress in negotiations

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets fell sharply, with Brent declining below $103/bbl as optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement weighed on prices.
The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal and a response expected via regional intermediaries. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to price direction.
Despite the softer sentiment, physical flows remain constrained. The U.S. has indicated a pause in its naval escort programme, but shipping volumes through the Strait are still well below normal levels, and supply disruption persists. Inventories continue to absorb part of the shock, maintaining a degree of structural tightness.
Near-term price direction will be driven by negotiation outcomes. A confirmed agreement could trigger a sharp correction as supply returns, while any breakdown in talks would likely see a rapid rebound in prices.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices rose sharply, supported by continued destocking and absorption of previously restricted port inventories. Demand remains relatively firm, with steel production still operating at elevated levels despite some moderation in pig iron output. Rising costs and tightening margins may cap further upside, though near-term support remains intact.
Copper
Copper moved higher, holding above $13,000/t as sentiment improved. However, elevated inventories and softer demand signals—particularly in China—are limiting upside. The market remains balanced between structural support and near-term demand uncertainty, with pricing driven by both macro developments and inventory trends.
Chrome Ore
Chrome markets were broadly stable, with spot prices unchanged and futures supported by cost pressures. Post-holiday demand remains subdued, with high inventories weighing on sentiment. In the near term, the market is expected to remain sideways, balancing firm costs against cautious buying.

Market Regime
Diplomatic-driven correction / Softer energy / Supported bulk / Resilient metals

Closing View
Markets are entering a critical phase, with pricing increasingly driven by expectations around a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The sharp correction in energy highlights the sensitivity of markets to shifts in perceived supply risk.
Despite this, underlying structural tightness across energy and industrial inputs remains in place, providing continued support to bulk and base metals. Until there is definitive clarity on the outcome of negotiations and the normalisation of supply flows, markets are likely to remain volatile, with price direction dictated by geopolitical developments rather than purely fundamental drivers.

US-Iran Agreement: Impact on Commodity Markets

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London Commodity Brokers


Reports suggest the United States and Iran are nearing a preliminary agreement aimed at de-escalating the conflict and establishing a framework for continued negotiations. Discussions are focused on a short-form memorandum of understanding that would formally signal a cessation of hostilities and initiate a 30-day window for broader talks.

The arrangement remains conditional, with several core elements still under review. Washington is expecting a formal response from Tehran within the next 48 hours. While not yet finalised, this marks the most substantive progress toward resolution since the conflict began.

The draft framework is understood to include a temporary pause on Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, coupled with a phased easing of US sanctions and the possible release of frozen Iranian assets. Of particular relevance to commodity markets, the agreement also addresses maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, with a gradual relaxation of restrictions anticipated during the negotiation period.

Shipping flows through the strait, which have been significantly disrupted, could begin to normalise under this timeline. However, provisions remain in place for a reimposition of restrictions or renewed military action should negotiations falter.

Market reaction has been swift, with improved risk sentiment and a corresponding adjustment in energy-linked assets reflecting the prospect of returning supply flows. That said, uncertainty remains elevated given the conditional nature of the agreement and the risk of breakdown.

For commodity markets, the immediate implication is a potential easing of supply constraints across energy, fertiliser and bulk commodity chains linked to the Gulf. Nonetheless, the situation remains fluid, and pricing is likely to retain a geopolitical risk premium until a durable agreement is secured and shipping flows stabilise.

Transnet to Close North Corridor for Maintenance

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South Africa’s state-owned rail operator Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) will close its coal-delivering north corridor for annual maintenance on 21 July-1 August. TFR will carry out track renewals, signalling upgrades and major infrastructure repairs, sharply curtailing coal deliveries to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT). Coal movements during the maintenance window fell to 336,000t in 2024 and 125,000t in 2025. In comparison, TFR’s average weekly deliveries to port were at 976,000t in 2024 and 1.06mn t in 2025.

LCB Market Brief – 23 April 2026

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London Commodity News

*Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)*

  • *Brent Crude:* $102.93/bbl, up 1.00% — elevated, with sustained supply disruption risk
  • *Coal (API2 April):* $102.35/mt — supported, tracking strength across the energy complex
  • *Coal (API4 April):* $105.50/mt — firm, with export sentiment holding
  • *Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe):* $107.20/mt, up 0.05% — stable, underpinned by demand and tighter supply
  • *Copper (LME 3M):* $13,442/mt, down 1.60% — softer, with macro pressure offsetting supply risks
  • *Manganese Ore (42% Mn CIF China):* $5.40/mtu — firm, supported by rising costs and import demand

*What Matters Today*

  • Markets remain firmly supply-driven, with disruption to key trade routes dominating sentiment
  • Energy continues to lead, with oil holding above $100/bbl on sustained supply constraints
  • Coal is supported by energy strength, though physical markets remain well supplied
  • Metals are mixed, balancing cost support with softer near-term demand signals

*Coal*

Coal markets extended gains in line with the broader energy complex, supported by ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of progress toward de-escalation.

Front-month Brent crude and European gas rose by approximately 1.5% and 2% respectively, providing support to coal swaps, with Newcastle once again leading the move higher. However, the physical Newcastle market remains adequately supplied, limiting upside in the prompt portion of the curve.

Coal continues to track energy directionally, though with more muted price action. While sentiment remains supportive, physical availability—particularly in the Pacific—continues to cap near-term gains.

*Coal Curves (LCB Data)*

  • *API2*: Supported by broader energy strength
  • *API4:* Holding firm, reflecting stable export dynamics
  • *Spread:* Continues to reflect freight and regional supply factors

*Trade Insight*

  • Energy markets remain the primary driver, with coal following oil-led sentiment
  • Physical oversupply in parts of the coal market is capping prompt upside despite stronger derivatives
  • Metals are increasingly influenced by input costs, particularly sulphur and energy
  • Shipping disruption remains the core transmission channel across commodities

*Market Focus: Brent Crude*

Oil markets remain elevated, with Brent holding above $100/bbl as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.

The Strait is now effectively blockaded by both the United States and Iran, with reports suggesting more than 800 vessels are stranded on either side. This has reinforced concerns over a sustained and material supply shock, with estimates indicating potential disruption of up to 13 million barrels per day.

Tensions have escalated further through reciprocal vessel seizures and increased military activity. Donald Trump has signalled a more assertive approach to securing the route, while Iran has moved to assert greater control over transit, including proposals to introduce tolling mechanisms.

Despite the extension of a ceasefire reducing immediate infrastructure risks, the continued closure of the Strait remains the dominant factor underpinning prices. Until access is restored, oil is expected to remain elevated and highly sensitive to developments in shipping flows and military activity.

*Additional Markets*

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices eased slightly, with futures and spot prices softening despite supportive fundamentals. Demand remains firm, driven by restocking ahead of China’s Labour Day holiday and sustained steel output. At the same time, reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil have tightened port inventories, providing underlying support. The market remains balanced, with near-term weakness offset by strong demand and constrained supply.

*Copper*
Copper retreated from recent highs, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. While supply-side concerns—particularly around sulphuric acid availability—continue to provide support, signs of softer spot demand in China have emerged, including a shift from premiums to discounts. The market is currently trading cautiously, balancing cost pressures with evolving demand conditions.

*Manganese Ore*
Manganese ore markets remain firm, supported by rising imports into China and increasing cost pressures. South African supply has driven higher volumes, while elevated electricity and freight costs continue to push CIF prices higher. Demand recovery remains uneven, with regional variations in alloy production, but overall sentiment is supported by cost-driven pricing dynamics.

*Market Regime*

*Supply shock / Elevated energy / Supported bulk / Mixed metals*

Closing View

The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the defining feature across commodity markets, sustaining elevated energy prices and reinforcing supply-side risk. Oil is firmly in control of broader sentiment, with coal and other energy-linked commodities following directionally.

While bulk commodities remain supported by underlying demand and tightening supply, metals are increasingly caught between rising input costs and softer near-term consumption signals. Until there is clarity on the reopening of key trade routes and the trajectory of geopolitical developments, markets are likely to remain volatile and driven by supply risk rather than purely fundamental demand trends.

Market Brief – 21st April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (17:10 GMT)

  • Brent Crude: $98.00/bbl, up 2.64% — supported, with geopolitical risk premium still partially embedded
  • Coal (API2 April): $102.00/mt — firmer, tracking strength across the energy complex
  • Coal (API4 April): $105.00/mt — supported, with stronger export sentiment
  • Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $107.20/mt, up 0.05% — stable to firm, underpinned by demand and tighter inventories
  • Copper (LME 3M): $13,228.50/mt, down 0.34% — rangebound, with macro and FX pressures offsetting demand
  • Lead (LME 3M): $1,962.50/mt, down 0.61% — slightly weaker, with subdued spot demand

What Matters Today

  • Markets remain highly reactive, with sentiment shifting rapidly on geopolitical headlines
  • Energy continues to lead, with oil and gas rebounding on renewed conflict expectations
  • Bulk commodities are supported by restocking demand and tight inventories
  • Metals are mixed, with copper rangebound and lead showing tentative support

Coal

Coal markets strengthened in line with the broader energy complex, as renewed geopolitical tension drove a rebound in oil and gas prices. Reports suggesting the United States may not extend the ceasefire with Iran beyond Wednesday have increased expectations of a prolonged conflict, supporting energy markets across the board.

European gas prices rose sharply, while coal followed with broad gains across indices. Newcastle swaps once again led the move, reflecting higher sensitivity to shifts in global energy sentiment.

Despite the rally, coal continues to exhibit more measured price movements compared to oil and gas, supported by stable demand and relatively balanced physical fundamentals. In the near term, coal is expected to track energy directionally, with volatility driven primarily by geopolitical developments.

  • API2: Firming alongside broader energy strength
  • API4: Supported by improving export sentiment and regional demand
  • Spread: Reflects freight dynamics and ongoing logistical constraints

Trade Insight

  • Energy markets are once again dictating direction, with coal responding to oil-led sentiment shifts
  • Bulk commodities remain supported by real demand rather than speculative flows
  • Metals continue to balance strong underlying consumption with macro and FX pressures
  • Geopolitical developments remain the primary catalyst across all commodity classes

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil prices eased slightly after a sharp rally, with Brent holding near $98/bbl as markets balanced supply disruption risks against uncertainty around diplomatic progress.

Recent gains were driven by heightened tensions in the Gulf, including the seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel and renewed restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. These developments pushed prices higher as traders priced in the risk of constrained supply routes.

However, mixed signals around potential negotiations have capped further upside. While the United States has indicated a willingness to engage in talks, Iran’s participation remains uncertain, leaving markets caught between the risk of escalation and the possibility of de-escalation.

As a result, oil continues to trade with a partial geopolitical premium, with volatility driven by incoming headlines. Elevated prices are also beginning to raise broader concerns around inflation and global growth, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to developments in the region.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices moved higher, supported by restocking demand ahead of China’s May Labour Day holiday and declining inventories. Stable blast furnace utilisation continues to underpin consumption, while emerging supply-side risks—particularly fuel-related disruptions—are adding support. The market is expected to remain firm but volatile in the near term.

Copper
Copper traded largely sideways, with the market lacking clear direction. A firmer dollar limited upside, while ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept sentiment cautious. In China, refined output reached record levels, indicating strong supply. The market is expected to remain rangebound until clearer signals emerge.

Lead
Lead prices edged higher despite subdued trading activity. Modest buying interest has provided some support, though demand from battery producers remains weak. Rising energy costs are beginning to influence pricing expectations, but gains are likely to remain gradual without a stronger demand recovery.

Market Regime

Headline-driven / Firm energy / Supported bulk / Rangebound metals

Closing View

Markets remain caught between competing forces, with geopolitical risk continuing to drive short-term price action while underlying demand provides support across key commodities. Energy remains the dominant influence, with oil setting the tone for coal and broader market sentiment.

Until there is greater clarity on the direction of U.S.–Iran negotiations and the stability of key supply routes, volatility is expected to persist. In this environment, markets will remain highly reactive, with price direction dictated more by headlines than by structural fundamentals.

Market Brief – 20th April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • Brent Crude: $95.40/bbl, up 5.55% — rebounding on renewed geopolitical tension and supply risk
  • Coal (API2 April): $102.00/mt — softer into the close after early strength alongside energy
  • Coal (API4 April): $104.50/mt — relatively supported, though directional bias weakening
  • Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $107.00/mt, down 0.23% — stable, supported by demand and tight inventories
  • Copper (LME 3M): $13,290/mt, down 0.43% — mixed, with demand support offset by macro uncertainty
  • Chrome Concentrate (40/42%, CIF China): $317/mt — subdued, with weak demand and high inventories

What Matters Today

  • Markets opened the week on a more cautious footing, as renewed Middle East tensions reversed last week’s optimism
  • Energy has reasserted itself as the primary driver, with oil rebounding sharply on supply disruption risk
  • Bulk commodities remain supported by resilient demand, though increasingly sensitive to macro signals
  • Metals are mixed, with cost pressures rising alongside geopolitical uncertainty

Coal

Coal markets tracked the broader energy complex, with early gains reversing into the close as volatility returned. Strength in oil—driven by renewed concerns over disruption through key shipping routes—initially supported coal prices, before weaker sentiment into the afternoon saw indices finish marginally lower. Newcastle prices led the downside among benchmarks.

European gas traded more steadily, easing during the session but still closing higher on the day, reflecting a more balanced supply outlook relative to oil.

Overall, coal continues to demonstrate relative resilience, with price moves less pronounced than in oil and gas. The market remains supported by stable demand and ongoing logistical constraints, though short-term direction is increasingly dictated by developments in the energy complex.

Coal Curves

  • API2: Slightly weaker into the close despite early support from oil
  • API4: Holding relatively firm, supported by constrained export flows
  • Spread: Continues to reflect freight dynamics and regional supply tightness

Trade Insight

  • Energy volatility is once again dictating direction, with coal following oil but with muted downside
  • The intraday reversal highlights a market driven by headline risk rather than structural shifts
  • Cost pressures—particularly fuel and sulphur—are increasingly feeding into production economics across metals
  • Logistics and shipping disruption remain the key transmission mechanism across commodities

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil markets rebounded sharply, with Brent moving back above $95/bbl as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated over the weekend.

The seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel, alongside renewed hostilities in the Gulf of Oman, has undermined confidence in the previously announced ceasefire. Iran’s decision to again restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz—after only recently declaring it fully open—has reintroduced a significant geopolitical risk premium.

With negotiations now uncertain and both sides signalling the potential for further escalation, the market is increasingly pricing in the risk of prolonged disruption to global oil flows.

While diplomatic discussions are still expected in the coming days, sentiment has shifted decisively. Oil is likely to remain highly volatile, with prices reacting rapidly to both geopolitical developments and any changes in shipping activity through key routes.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore edged higher in early trading before stabilising, supported by firm demand and relatively tight inventories. Strong steel production continues to limit stock build-up, providing a supportive backdrop. However, the market remains sensitive to broader macro developments, with volatility expected to persist despite constructive fundamentals.

Copper
Copper traded mixed, with stronger pricing in Shanghai offset by softer performance in London. Continued inventory drawdowns and firm import premiums point to resilient Chinese demand. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment, leaving the market balanced between supportive fundamentals and macro risk.

Chrome
Chrome markets remain subdued, with weak demand and elevated inventories continuing to pressure prices. Ferrochrome producers remain cautious, with limited spot activity. While cost-side support persists, it has not translated into stronger demand, leaving the market with a slight downward bias.

Sulphur
Sulphur markets are tightening, driven by disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. Restrictions on flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with export limitations from key producers, have pushed prices higher.

This is feeding into rising production costs across the metals complex, particularly for copper and nickel, where sulphuric acid is a critical input. The impact is already evident in tighter margins, with further pressure likely if supply constraints persist.

Market Regime

Renewed risk premium / Volatile energy / Supported bulk / Cost-driven metals

Closing View

The re-escalation of tensions has quickly reversed last week’s improvement in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of current market conditions. Energy markets have once again taken the lead, with oil volatility feeding through into coal and the broader commodity complex.

While underlying demand fundamentals remain supportive, particularly in bulk commodities, markets are increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk and supply chain uncertainty. Until there is greater clarity on negotiations and the stability of key trade routes, commodities are likely to remain volatile and highly responsive to headlines.

Market Brief – 16 April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • Brent Crude: $98.13/bbl, up 3.36% —supported, with geopolitical risk premium still embedded
  • Coal (API2 April): $103.00/mt —trading activity elevated, with physical supply channels facing logistical pressure
  • Coal (API4 April): $104.50/mt —supported by tighter South African export optionality
  • Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $106.75/mt, down 0.14% — firm, supported by strong demand and tighter inventories
  • Copper (LME 3M): $13,258/mt, up 0.12% — slightly softer on the day, but underpinned by resilient demand
  • Lead (LME 3M): $1,952/mt, down 0.66% — weaker, as subdued battery-sector demand continues to weigh

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What Matters Today

  • Markets remain finely balanced, with sentiment continuing to pivot on developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations
  • Energy remains the key driver, with oil and coal reacting to supply risk, logistics and inventory shifts
  • Bulk commodities are holding firm, supported by resilient demand and rising cost pressure
  • Base metals are mixed, with copper supported by underlying demand while lead remains soft

Coal

Thermal coal markets saw a sharp increase in paper activity during March, with ICE futures and options volumes reaching 79.2 million tonnes, up 17% month-on-month and the highest level since March 2022. European API2 contracts accounted for more than 70% of total volume, highlighting both the importance of the Atlantic market and the rise in hedging and speculative participation amid elevated volatility.

In the physical market, ARA inventories continued to recover, rising by 170,000 tonnes to 2.7 million tonnes in the week to 12 April. This marks a further rebound from decade lows, with gains led by Rotterdam’s EMO terminal, although partly offset by declines at Amsterdam’s HES and Vlissingen’s Ovet. Despite this improvement, low Rhine river levels continue to constrain inland barge movements, limiting the pace at which stocks can be redistributed into the broader European market.

In South Africa, rising diesel costs linked to the geopolitical backdrop are adding pressure to logistics chains. Although total exports remain above year-ago levels, shipments from smaller non-RBCT ports have fallen by nearly 23% to 2.38 million tonnes. This reinforces RBCT’s dominant role in export flows and reduces flexibility in alternative channels, a factor that could tighten prompt availability if logistical pressures persist.

Coal Curves

  • API2: Remains the core paper benchmark, with strong participation reflecting elevated hedging interest
  • API4: Supported by tighter export optionality from South Africa and pressure on alternative port flows
  • Spread: Continues to reflect freight, origin competitiveness and logistical constraints across the Atlantic and Indian Ocean basins

Trade Insight

  • Coal is increasingly trading as a logistics and cost story, not simply a demand story
  • Rising derivatives volumes suggest participants are actively positioning for continued volatility
  • Tightness in alternative South African export channels may keep RBCT-linked material relatively supported
  • Across energy and bulk, transport constraints remain as important as outright supply

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil markets remain supported, though upside continues to be capped by uncertainty over the direction of U.S.–Iran negotiations. Comments suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end have improved risk appetite, but the blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are still well below normal.

The market remains highly sensitive to supply disruption risk. The Strait continues to operate at reduced capacity despite its significance for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Additional support is coming from declining U.S. fuel inventories and firm export demand, both of which reinforce the perception of an already tight market. European gas has also remained firm due to lower storage levels and weaker pipeline flows, adding broader support across the energy complex.

That said, sentiment remains fragile. Conflicting headlines around negotiations, coupled with continued military activity, are preventing the market from fully unwinding the geopolitical premium. In the near term, oil is likely to remain volatile and headline-driven, with price direction tied closely to both diplomatic developments and evidence of any normalisation in physical shipping flows.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore moved higher, supported by robust demand, firmer futures and tighter inventories. While physical trading remains cautious, blast furnace utilisation and hot metal output continue to provide a strong consumption base. The absence of any significant inventory release following the easing of certain trade restrictions has also removed a key bearish overhang. Rising energy costs and concerns around diesel availability are adding a further layer of support, leaving the market with a firm near-term bias.

Copper
Copper eased slightly but remains well supported overall. Sentiment has stabilised on expectations of extended ceasefire negotiations, while Chinese demand indicators continue to improve. Fabricators have stepped up purchases following earlier price declines, and both inventory drawdowns in China and firmer import premiums suggest underlying demand remains healthy. Although the market is still vulnerable to geopolitical volatility, the broader balance remains constructive.

Lead
Lead prices moved lower as weak demand continues to dominate the market. Buying interest from the battery sector remains subdued, reflecting seasonal softness, while stable primary production has kept supply comfortable. Reduced output from secondary producers has not been sufficient to materially tighten conditions. For now, the market remains soft, with any recovery likely dependent on either stronger end-user demand or a more supportive macro backdrop.

Market Regime

Headline-driven energy / Firm bulk / Constructive copper / Soft lead

Closing View

Commodity markets remain in a holding pattern, with sentiment shaped less by pure fundamentals and more by the interaction between geopolitics, logistics and demand resilience. Energy continues to set the tone, while bulk commodities are drawing support from strong consumption and rising operating costs. Metals are more mixed, with copper holding a constructive bias and lead lagging on weak end-use demand.

Until there is greater clarity on U.S.–Iran negotiations and the outlook for regional supply flows, markets are likely to remain reactive. In this environment, price direction will continue to depend not just on outright supply and demand, but on the credibility of headlines and the durability of physical trade routes.

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