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London Commodity News 4th June 2026

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Commodity markets remained heavily driven by supply security concerns and geopolitical developments, with energy markets continuing to react sharply to every shift in Middle East negotiations. While oil markets softened on renewed diplomatic optimism, tighter physical balances across coal supply chains continued to provide support for thermal coal markets.

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (June): _$134.00/mt down $5.00/mt

API2 (July):* _$130.00/mt down $3.00/mt

API4 (June):* _$122.50/mt down $1.00/mt

API4 (July):* $120.00 down $1.00/mt
Brent Crude: $95.02/bll down 2.85%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $101.55/mt down 0.44%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,928/mt up 0.75%

Coal

The volatile, yo-yo behaviour across coal markets continued today, with yesterday’s strength giving way to weaker pricing across much of the forward curve as lower oil prices and renewed optimism surrounding potential peace negotiations weighed on sentiment once again.

Despite weakness further forward, Newcastle physical markets remained notably active. Strong buying interest saw July physical trade up to $150/t, helping prompt NEWC swaps rally despite broader weakness across forward markets. August physical activity also remained firm, with multiple trades reported around the $149/t level.

Underlying coal market fundamentals remain relatively supportive, with tightening export supply conditions continuing to offset broader macro uncertainty.

In Colombia, the blockade affecting Cerrejón’s rail corridor entered its ninth consecutive day, continuing to disrupt mining, rail and export operations at one of the Atlantic Basin’s largest thermal coal supply systems. The disruption adds further supply-side risk and reinforces concerns surrounding logistics reliability across key export corridors.

European supply balances also remain influenced by growing inventories and constrained inland logistics. Coal inventories across the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose by 42,000t during the week to 31 May to reach 3.74mn t, while inventories at Rotterdam’s EMO terminal increased to 2.5mn t. However, low Rhine river levels continue restricting downstream deliveries, limiting the ability for inventories to move efficiently through the supply chain.

In South Africa, logistical risks remain firmly in focus following a derailment on the Transnet coal export corridor servicing Richards Bay. Although partial operations resumed relatively quickly, the incident again highlighted ongoing infrastructure vulnerabilities ahead of Transnet’s scheduled maintenance programme later this summer.

Despite these operational challenges, RBCT inventories remained above the 4mn t threshold for a third consecutive week. Export demand remained robust, particularly from India, which continued to dominate South African export flows.

European thermal coal markets continue receiving support from tightening physical conditions, with Argus NAR 6,000 kcal/kg CIF ARA rising above $140/t for the first time since late 2023 as Colombian supply risks, South African logistical concerns, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and broader gas market concerns continue supporting sentiment.

Brent Crude

Brent crude extended recent losses, falling more than 3% toward $94/bbl as optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran improved market sentiment.

Markets reacted positively following reports that Israel and Lebanon had moved closer toward a ceasefire agreement, while comments from President Trump suggesting progress in negotiations with Iran could emerge within days added further downside pressure to prices.

However, significant uncertainty remains. Iranian officials continued denying meaningful progress while Israeli leadership signalled military operations could continue. Recent exchanges between US and Iranian forces, alongside the widening regional spillover into Bahrain and Kuwait, continue to underline the fragile nature of current negotiations.

Despite improving sentiment, oil markets remain highly sensitive to conflicting headlines and uncertainty surrounding the eventual reopening of regional energy flows.

Iron Ore

Iron ore prices moved lower amid concerns surrounding increasing global supply growth and weaker market sentiment.

The most-traded DCE September contract closed down 1.85% at 767 yuan/mt while portside prices declined by 6–11 yuan/mt.

Market sentiment was weighed by expectations of growing exports from Guinea’s Simandou project alongside broader concerns regarding rising seaborne supply. However, elevated freight costs continue limiting downside pressure, while underlying steel production remains relatively supportive.

For now, markets continue balancing supportive demand conditions against increasingly abundant supply expectations.

Copper

Copper prices eased back below $14,000/mt as geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns weighed on market sentiment.

Although long-term demand drivers remain supportive, markets are increasingly focused on near-term risks surrounding global growth, higher energy costs and potential changes to US trade policy.

Attention remains centred on an upcoming US decision regarding potential tariffs on refined copper imports. Market participants remain concerned that further tariff measures could accelerate stock movements into US warehouses and tighten availability elsewhere.

Despite recent price weakness, structural demand from electrification, renewable energy expansion, artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centre development continues to provide underlying support for longer-term market fundamentals.

Commodity markets continue balancing competing forces of tightening physical fundamentals, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting macroeconomic expectations. While energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, supply disruptions and logistical constraints continue to provide underlying support across several key commodity markets.

London Commodity News – 28th May 2026

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Commodity markets remained highly reactive to developments in the Middle East as shifting headlines around negotiations, military activity and shipping disruptions continued to drive intraday volatility. While energy markets remain focused on the evolving geopolitical picture, industrial metals continue balancing macroeconomic uncertainty against increasingly constrained physical supply conditions.

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): $113.25/mt up $0.25/mt
API2 (June): 130.25/mt up $1.25/mt
API4 (May): $117.35/mt up $0.05/mt
API4 (June): $117.50/mt down $0.75/mt
Brent Crude: $93.16/bll up 0.99%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $105.00/mt down 3.49%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,665/mt up 0.99%

Coal
Energy markets remained highly volatile and headline-driven, with oil and gas prices continuing to move sharply throughout the session as participants reacted to developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
European gas and oil prices strengthened early and continued rising through much of the day, with front-month TTF gaining around 5% intraday and Brent crude rising close to 3% at its peak. The strength across the broader energy complex also provided support to coal markets, with swaps moving firmer through the morning session.
However, sentiment shifted during the afternoon after reports emerged suggesting that an extension to the US-Iran ceasefire and additional negotiations aimed at broader de-escalation were being actively considered. The headlines triggered a sharp reversal across energy markets, with Brent crude ultimately closing around 1% lower while European gas retained more modest gains of approximately 1%.
Coal markets also eased alongside the softer energy sentiment, although API2 contracts remained modestly firmer overall while other coal indices closed weaker on the day.

Brent Crude
Crude oil markets remained highly volatile on Thursday as participants continued navigating conflicting geopolitical headlines and rapidly changing expectations around the Middle East conflict.
Oil prices initially rose around 2% after reports emerged that the United States had carried out additional overnight strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, increasing concerns that tensions may once again be escalating despite ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
The rebound followed a sharp sell-off during the previous session, where both major crude benchmarks fell more than 5% amid optimism that negotiations could ultimately lead to a broader agreement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump stated he remained “not satisfied” with current negotiations, while the White House dismissed reports suggesting Iran and Oman could jointly oversee shipping through Hormuz under a proposed agreement.
According to reports citing US officials, recent military strikes targeted locations considered threats to both maritime traffic and American military assets operating near the Strait.
Despite renewed tensions, crude remains on track for a second consecutive weekly decline as markets continue pricing the possibility that at least an interim agreement could still emerge. However, significant obstacles remain, particularly around Iran’s nuclear programme and the future control of shipping through Hormuz.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures remained weak and volatile during trading, with the most-traded September contract on the Dalian exchange closing marginally lower at 780.5 yuan/mt.
Market participants continued to point toward relatively supportive underlying fundamentals despite softer price action. Analysts noted that stronger Chinese import demand during FY2025 has continued to offset weaker domestic steel production, while reduced scrap usage within Chinese steelmaking continues supporting iron ore consumption.
Although broader ferrous market sentiment remains cautious, underlying demand conditions continue to provide support and limit downside pressure for prices.

Copper
Copper prices edged modestly higher after fresh Chinese policy support measures helped offset renewed concerns surrounding Middle East tensions.
Three-month LME copper recovered from earlier weakness, rising 0.4% after recently falling to its lowest level since late May. Support came after reports suggested China’s central bank had instructed domestic banks to increase lending activity, reinforcing expectations that policymakers remain focused on supporting economic activity.
However, investor sentiment remained cautious after renewed US military strikes against Iranian targets reduced confidence that negotiations could produce a near-term resolution. Market participants continue balancing two competing forces: weaker macroeconomic sentiment and slower industrial activity on one side, versus tightening physical supply conditions on the other.
Concerns over sulphuric acid availability remain a key theme for copper markets, with shortages continuing to threaten mine production and refining activity globally.
Meanwhile, tariff expectations continue influencing global trade flows. COMEX copper maintained a substantial premium over LME prices as traders continued shipping material into the United States ahead of a potential decision regarding refined copper import tariffs later this year. A stronger US Dollar also added modest pressure, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers.

Commodity markets continue to trade within an environment dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, tightening physical balances and evolving trade flows. While near-term price direction remains heavily influenced by developments surrounding the Middle East, structural supply constraints across energy and metals markets continue providing an important underlying source of support.

London Commodity News – 19th May 2026

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Commodity markets remained volatile as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict continued to dominate sentiment across the energy complex. While signs of possible negotiations briefly weighed on oil markets, tightening physical balances and continued disruption to global energy flows maintained broader support across coal, gas and industrial commodities.

Prices at 17h00 BST
API2 (May): $112.00/mt API2 (June): 124.00/mt
API4 (May): $117.50/mt API4 (June): $119.50/mt
Brent Crude: $110.92/bll down 1.05%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $109.55/mt down 0.18%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,409.00/mt down 1.39%

Coal
Volatility across the energy complex continued through today’s session, with European gas prices strengthening sharply and front-month TTF closing around 3.5% higher. API2 coal prices also rallied strongly, supported both by the strength in European gas markets and firmer physical DES ARA pricing, which traded materially above yesterday’s offer levels and stimulated renewed buying interest.
The broader strength in API2 also provided support to API4 and NEWC swaps, with sentiment across the coal complex remaining underpinned by continued uncertainty surrounding global energy supply flows and elevated replacement costs.

Brent Crude
Oil prices moved lower today after US President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike on Iran had been paused to allow negotiations to continue. Brent crude futures fell around 1% during the session, although volatility remained elevated as markets continued reacting to rapidly changing geopolitical headlines. Trump stated that the United States remained prepared to resume military action should negotiations fail, reinforcing the fragile and highly uncertain nature of current diplomatic efforts. Despite the temporary easing in tensions, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, continuing to represent one of the largest disruptions to global oil and LNG supply flows in recent history.
Iran’s latest proposal reportedly includes demands for a cessation of hostilities across multiple fronts, the withdrawal of US forces from areas near Iran and compensation linked to war-related damage. Meanwhile, the United States extended a sanctions waiver allowing certain energy-vulnerable countries to continue purchasing Russian seaborne crude. Global oil markets continue to balance hopes for diplomacy against tightening physical balances. Strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns in the United States and declining crude inventories are continuing to reinforce concerns surrounding supply availability heading into peak summer demand season.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded weaker today, with the most-traded DCE September contract closing down 0.87% at 798.5 yuan/mt. Portside spot prices were broadly stable, changing between flat and up 3 yuan/mt, while overall spot market activity remained subdued.
Steel mills largely maintained a cautious wait-and-see approach, with procurement continuing to focus on immediate production requirements. Despite softer sentiment, underlying demand fundamentals remained relatively supportive.
SMM survey data indicated that blast furnace maintenance impacts are expected to ease further next week, supporting expectations that pig iron production will remain elevated overall. Strong steel exports and resilient downstream demand outside China are also continuing to underpin iron ore consumption, limiting downside pressure despite short-term price weakness.

Copper
Copper prices edged lower today as inflation concerns, elevated energy prices and weaker Chinese economic data weighed on broader industrial metals sentiment. Three-month LME copper declined around 0.3% to $13,544.50/mt.
Analysts noted that the recent pullback follows a strong rally earlier this month, with macroeconomic concerns now temporarily offsetting underlying supply-side support. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices continue to raise concerns over inflation persistence and tighter monetary policy, both of which could weigh on global industrial activity and metals demand.
At the same time, softer Chinese data across retail sales, investment and industrial production added further pressure to sentiment. Nevertheless, copper remains well supported structurally, with prices still up more than 8% year-to-date amid ongoing supply constraints and continued demand growth linked to electrification, AI infrastructure and energy transition investment.

Despite periodic volatility linked to geopolitical headlines, commodity markets continue to reflect a broader environment of tightening physical balances and increasingly constrained supply chains. Energy security concerns, resilient industrial demand and structural supply limitations across several key commodities are expected to continue supporting markets even as macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated.

London Commodity News 18th May 2026

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*Prices at 16h30 BST*
*API2 (May):* _$110.50/mt_ *API2 (June):* _118.25/mt_

*API4 (May):* _$117.50/mt_ *API4 (June):* _$117.00/mt_
*Brent Crude:* _$111.00/bll up 1.59%_
*SGX Iron Ore 62Fe:* _$109.90/mt down 0.09%_
*LME 3-Month Copper:* _$13,579.00/mt up 0.18%_

*LME 3-Month Lead:* _$1,978.00/mt down 0.03%_

_Commodity markets opened the week under renewed pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and tightening global financial conditions, with energy prices remaining highly sensitive to developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. While volatility across oil markets persisted, industrial metals faced a more mixed backdrop as macroeconomic concerns weighed against still-supportive physical fundamentals._

*Coal*

The strength seen at the end of last week carried through into today’s session, with oil and gas prices opening materially firmer amid the continued absence of any meaningful de-escalation in the US-Iran situation. Volatility remained elevated throughout the afternoon as reports emerged suggesting that peace negotiations were making progress, briefly pushing oil, gas and coal prices lower before markets partially recovered into the close. European gas ultimately finished broadly unchanged on the day, while front-month Brent crude closed around 1.5% higher. Coal prices also remained well supported, with API2 ending notably firmer as broader strength across the energy complex continued to underpin sentiment throughout the session.

*Brent Crude*

Oil prices moved higher on Monday after US President Donald Trump warned that Iran was “running out of time” to reach an agreement with Washington, reinforcing concerns that negotiations to end the conflict remain stalled. Brent crude briefly traded above $112/bl before easing back toward the $110/bl level later in the session.

Energy markets remain highly reactive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained heavily restricted since the conflict escalated in late February. Around one fifth of global oil and LNG flows normally transit the waterway, leaving markets extremely sensitive to any indications of either escalation or diplomatic progress.

Early gains were driven by renewed concerns over potential military escalation following reports that Trump is expected to meet with senior national security advisers this week to discuss further options regarding Iran. However, prices later pared gains after reports emerged suggesting the US may temporarily ease sanctions on Iranian crude exports during negotiations, improving hopes for limited progress toward a broader agreement.

Rising energy prices continue to feed through into global inflation concerns and government borrowing costs, with markets increasingly focused on the risk that persistent energy inflation may delay or reverse expected interest rate cuts by major central banks.

*Iron Ore*

Iron ore futures traded weaker today, with the most-traded DCE September contract closing down 1.11% at 803 yuan/mt. Portside spot prices were modestly firmer by 2–4 yuan/mt, although overall trading sentiment remained subdued.

Supply conditions continued to loosen as major miners accelerated second-quarter shipments. Global iron ore shipments rose 5.48% WoW last week, while arrivals at Chinese ports increased both weekly and year-on-year. Brazilian exports rebounded particularly strongly.

Despite improving supply, blast furnace operating rates in China remained relatively high, continuing to provide solid underlying demand support for iron ore. However, weakness across broader ferrous markets — particularly declines in coking coal and coke futures following policy-related developments — weighed on sentiment.

Market participants continue to expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound at elevated levels, supported by resilient steel production despite signs of gradually loosening supply fundamentals.

*Copper*

Copper prices fell to a one-week low early on Monday as a stronger US dollar, weaker Chinese economic data and elevated energy prices pressured broader industrial metals markets.

Three-month LME copper declined to as low as $13,394.50/mt during the session before stabilising, while the most-active SHFE copper contract fell 1.4% to 104,330 yuan/mt. Concerns surrounding higher global interest rates and weaker manufacturing conditions continued to weigh on sentiment, particularly as geopolitical tensions showed little sign of easing.

However, lower copper prices began to stimulate downstream buying interest in China. According to SMM, orders at some processing enterprises increased by around 30% from the previous trading day as buyers returned near the 103,500 yuan/mt level.

Inventories also showed signs of mild destocking, with Shanghai-region copper inventories declining modestly week-on-week. Market participants noted that while macroeconomic concerns continue to pressure sentiment, underlying physical demand and tighter inventory conditions are continuing to provide support beneath the market.

*Lead*

Lead prices traded broadly sideways, with mixed supply-side dynamics continuing to balance against seasonally weak downstream demand.

Primary lead production edged higher last week, while secondary lead smelting activity remained mixed as some producers resumed operations while others implemented short-term cuts and maintenance. At the same time, the closure of the import arbitrage window reduced inflows of imported lead into China.

Demand conditions remained weak as the battery sector continued to experience seasonal off-season softness during May. Limited downstream consumption continued to cap upside momentum, leaving SHFE lead prices expected to remain rangebound in the near term.

_Commodity markets continue to navigate a complex environment shaped by geopolitical risk, evolving macroeconomic expectations and tightening physical supply dynamics. While energy markets remain dominated by developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, industrial metals are increasingly balancing weaker macro sentiment against still-resilient underlying demand and structurally constrained supply conditions._

Ebola Emergency Raises Fresh Questions for African Mineral Supply Chains

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The World Health Organization’s decision to declare the latest Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda a Public Health Emergency of International Concern has added a new layer of uncertainty to already fragile regional commodity supply chains.

While the immediate humanitarian implications remain the primary concern, the outbreak is also beginning to attract close attention across global metals markets, particularly given central Africa’s critical role in the supply of copper, cobalt, tin, tantalum and gold.

The current outbreak, linked to the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, has been centred around eastern DRC’s Ituri province, with confirmed imported cases now also reported in Kampala, Uganda. Health authorities and regional agencies have warned that mining-related mobility and porous cross-border transport networks could complicate containment efforts.

For commodity markets, the distinction between eastern DRC and the southern copperbelt is particularly important.

DRC remains one of the most strategically important mining jurisdictions in the world, accounting for roughly 14 percent of global copper mine supply and around three quarters of global mined cobalt production. However, the country’s largest copper and cobalt operations, including the Kamoa-Kakula complex and CMOC’s TFM operations, are located hundreds of kilometres away in the southern provinces of Lualaba and Haut-Katanga.

That geographical separation means the outbreak is not currently an immediate “mine shutdown” story for copper markets. Instead, it represents a broader regional risk capable of influencing labour availability, transport efficiency, border movements and market sentiment at a time when global supply chains are already operating with limited redundancy.

The more immediate exposure appears concentrated in eastern DRC’s gold and 3T mineral regions, covering tin, tantalum and tungsten production. Mongbwalu, one of the outbreak areas identified by health authorities, sits inside a key artisanal mining corridor. Uganda’s role as a major regional gold refining and trading hub also increases the market significance of any disruption extending into Kampala.

Recent history has already demonstrated how quickly eastern DRC disruptions can affect global metals pricing. Earlier supply interruptions at Alphamin’s Bisie tin mine triggered sharp moves in tin prices and raised concerns over downstream sourcing for technology manufacturers reliant on central African material.

So far, however, markets have remained relatively measured.

Copper prices had already been rallying strongly during May on broader concerns surrounding tight physical supply, electrification demand growth and continued infrastructure investment. Following the WHO declaration, copper prices actually retreated modestly, with broader macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and currency strength, continuing to dominate near-term price direction.

This suggests that the outbreak has not yet created a distinct Ebola-related risk premium in major exchange-traded metals.

That could change if the outbreak spreads further into major transport corridors or triggers stricter regional movement controls.

Logistics remain one of the key vulnerabilities. Eastern DRC’s mining economy relies heavily on road networks, border crossings and regional air links connecting Uganda, Kenya and the wider East African trade corridor. Even relatively limited screening measures or localised restrictions can create delays for freight movements, workforce rotation and cross-border transactions.

The issue is particularly sensitive because many mineral supply chains in central Africa already face structural logistical fragility. Earlier this year, disruptions to transport infrastructure in Zambia temporarily impacted copper exports from DRC, highlighting the lack of alternative routes available to producers.

At the same time, cobalt markets were already tightening before the outbreak emerged. DRC’s export quota system and strategic reserve policies have significantly altered global cobalt availability during 2026, helping drive substantial price increases over recent months. Any additional disruption tied to public health restrictions or operational delays could further tighten sentiment in an already supply-managed market.

For now, the market appears to be treating the outbreak primarily as a regional operational risk rather than a full-scale supply crisis.

The key indicators traders and industrial consumers will now monitor include whether transmission spreads beyond the current Ituri-Kampala cluster, whether mining companies introduce enhanced operational restrictions, and whether regional governments impose tighter border or transport controls.

Tin and tantalum markets remain the most exposed to immediate disruption due to their closer proximity to affected areas and their greater dependence on artisanal and informal supply chains.

Copper and cobalt remain more insulated geographically, but given DRC’s dominance in global production, even secondary disruptions to logistics, labour movement or export administration could quickly become internationally significant if the situation deteriorates further.

At present, the outbreak is best viewed as a developing supply-chain risk rather than a direct production shock. However, in an environment where commodity markets are already highly sensitive to geopolitical, logistical and structural supply constraints, developments in eastern Africa are unlikely to be ignored for long.

London Commodity News – 14th May 2026

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Commodity markets remained focused on supply security and logistics disruptions as geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence energy, freight and industrial metals markets. While volatility across oil markets moderated, traders increasingly shifted attention toward underlying physical balances, demand resilience and evolving supply risks across key commodity sectors.

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): $108.00/mt
API4 (May): $115.50/mt
Brent Crude: $105.12/bll down 0.48%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $111.10/mt down 0.18%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,946/mt down 1.46%

Coal
Energy markets experienced another comparatively stable session, although European gas and oil prices moved in opposite directions. Front month TTF gas gained around 1.5%, while Brent crude eased by just under 1%. Coal markets remained under selling pressure amid relatively thin liquidity due to public holidays across much of Europe, with API2 contracts leading declines and falling by around $1 across the curve.
South Africa’s thermal coal exports rose nearly 10% year-on-year in March to 7.19mn t, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Tracker, as the onset of the US-Iran conflict and associated gas shortages encouraged buyers to secure additional coal volumes for energy security purposes. Argus’ NAR 6,000 kcal/kg assessment averaged $110.07/t in March, up sharply from February’s $98.69/t average. Pakistan notably increased its reliance on South African coal following severe disruptions to Qatari LNG supply, despite elevated freight costs.
At the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, coal inventories edged higher to 3.22mn t in the week to 10 May, supported by steady Colombian arrivals and softer German coal burn. However, persistently low Rhine river levels continued to constrain barge loading capacity for inland utilities. Stocks at Rotterdam’s EMO terminal remained flat at 2.1mn t.
Meanwhile, South African rail operator Transnet signed access agreements with 11 private-sector operators across key freight corridors. The programme is expected to add an initial 24mn t/yr of freight capacity, with a longer-term target of 52mn t/yr over the next five years. Commodities covered include thermal coal, manganese and fuel products.

Brent Crude
Brent crude futures traded broadly unchanged around $105/bl as markets monitored developments in the Middle East alongside ongoing discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Reports from Iran indicated that approximately 30 vessels had recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran has reportedly allowed limited movement for some Chinese ships. At the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to use its influence to help facilitate a broader reopening of the waterway.
Despite tentative signs of easing transit restrictions, the International Energy Agency warned that crude and fuel shipments through Hormuz fell by nearly 6mn bpd during the first quarter and stated that global oil markets could remain materially undersupplied until at least October, even if the conflict were resolved next month.
Adding further support to prices, Saudi Arabia informed OPEC that its oil production had declined to its lowest level since 1990.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures displayed a weak-then-strong trading pattern, with the most-traded DCE September contract (I2609) closing broadly flat at 817 yuan/mt. Portside spot prices declined by 2–5 yuan/mt, while overall trading sentiment remained subdued.
Traders continued offering in line with market conditions, while steel mills largely maintained hand-to-mouth procurement strategies. Analysts noted that although broader capital inflows into ferrous markets have provided support, underlying iron ore fundamentals remain less supportive at current price levels. Seasonal demand weakness is also expected to weigh on sentiment in the coming weeks.

Copper
Copper retreated from recent record highs as elevated prices began to weigh more visibly on downstream demand in China, while markets also monitored the ongoing summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.
LME copper fell as much as 1.9%, ending an eight-session rally that had been driven by tightening global supply conditions, mine disruptions and strong long-term demand expectations linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and electrification. Analysts noted that while structural bullish drivers remain intact, current price levels are increasingly constraining short-term physical demand.
Chinese fabricators reported softer orders for copper rod and copper tube products, particularly as SHFE prices remained above 106,000 yuan/mt. Rising prices, combined with uncertainty linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have contributed to weaker purchasing activity across several downstream sectors.
At the same time, market participants continue to monitor Beijing’s crackdown on fraudulent invoicing activity, which has reduced liquidity in spot metals trading and slowed imports into China.
Despite the short-term pullback, broader supply concerns remain supportive. US COMEX copper prices continued to trade at record highs amid growing expectations of potential tariffs on critical metal imports, while global supply chains remain under pressure from sulphuric acid shortages, tight concentrate availability and ongoing mining disruptions. Demand linked to AI infrastructure, grid expansion and clean energy investment continues to underpin longer-term expectations for structural copper deficits.

Commodity markets continue to transition away from purely cyclical pricing dynamics toward a more structurally constrained environment driven by supply security, logistics disruption and long-term industrial demand growth. While geopolitical developments remain a major source of volatility, tightening physical balances and evolving strategic demand trends continue to provide underlying support across several key commodity markets.

London Commodity Brokers

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11 May 2026

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): $109.50/mt
API4 (May): $115.50/mt
Brent Crude: $103.80/bll up 2.48%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $111.50/mt down 0.45%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,945/mt up 2.73%
South Africa 40-42% Chrome Concentrate: $310/mt CIF China down $7/mt

Global commodity markets began the week navigating a fragile balance between geopolitical uncertainty and tightening physical fundamentals. Energy markets remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, while industrial metals continued to draw support from resilient demand and constrained supply conditions. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, broader risk appetite across metals markets remained comparatively firm.

Coal
There was significant strength across the energy complex today, with oil and gas prices opening materially firmer before extending gains through the afternoon, providing support to coal markets as well. Reports over the weekend and into today indicating that no agreement had yet been reached on the proposed US-Iran peace framework reinforced concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could persist for longer than previously expected. By the close, front-month Brent crude and TTF gas contracts were up approximately 3.5% and 5.5% respectively
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Brent Crude
Brent crude futures rose back above $103/bl after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a US-backed peace proposal, reinforcing concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz may persist.
Shipping flows through the waterway remain heavily constrained, continuing to impact global crude, LNG and refined product markets. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the market is losing close to 100 million barrels of supply per week, while security concerns intensified following fresh drone incidents near Qatar and interceptions in the UAE and Kuwait.
Although some cargoes from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have resumed limited transit, overall flows remain well below pre-conflict levels. Morgan Stanley warned that prolonged disruptions could push Brent crude toward $150/bl later this summer.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange moved higher before easing later in the session, with the most-traded September contract closing up 0.73% at 822.5 yuan/mt.
Global iron ore shipments fell sharply last week, down around 20% week-on-week due largely to weather disruptions in Australia and Brazil. At the same time, steel mill operating rates remain elevated, supporting underlying demand for iron ore.
Spot market activity remained cautious, however, with mills continuing to resist higher prices and focusing mainly on rigid restocking demand. Market participants expect prices to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.

Copper
Copper prices extended their rally, with three-month LME copper rising 1.3% to $13,573/mt, marking a sixth consecutive daily gain and the strongest level in more than three months.
The market continues to be supported by tightening supply conditions, low inventories and resilient structural demand linked to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and data centre expansion.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, copper has remained comparatively resilient, with traders increasingly focused on long-term supply-demand fundamentals rather than short-term geopolitical headlines.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices remained broadly stable, although market sentiment weakened further as downstream demand remained subdued.
Spot prices at Tianjin port were largely unchanged, while CIF transaction prices for South African 40–42% fines eased to $310/mt. Elevated port inventories and limited post-holiday buying activity continued to pressure traders.
Market participants remain cautious, with procurement activity focused mainly on immediate operational requirements and overall trading activity remaining subdued.

Commodity markets continue to navigate a complex environment shaped by geopolitical instability, constrained logistics and tightening physical balances across several key raw materials. While energy markets remain dominated by developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, industrial metals continue to derive support from structurally firm demand and increasingly constrained supply conditions. Market volatility is expected to remain elevated as participants assess both geopolitical developments and the sustainability of current physical market tightness.

Market Brief – 8 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 BST)
• Brent Crude: $101.57/bbl, up 1.51% — supported, despite easing geopolitical risk premium
• Coal (API2 May): $107.10/mt — firmer, tracking broader energy stability
• Coal (API4 May): $114.00/mt — supported, with continued export strength
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.95/mt, down 0.14% — steady, underpinned by resilient demand
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,572/mt, up 1.32% — strong, supported by structural supply concerns

What Matters Today
• Markets ended the week balancing improving diplomatic sentiment against ongoing physical disruption
• Energy prices stabilised, though underlying supply conditions remain exceptionally tight
• Bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient industrial demand and elevated costs
• Metals remain underpinned by structural supply constraints and logistical disruption

Coal
Coal markets traded firmer, supported by a more stable energy complex following the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude and European gas both ended the session modestly higher, helping coal prices recover steadily through the day.
The move was less aggressive than earlier rallies, but broad-based support remained visible across indices as markets continued to price in elevated energy risk despite improving diplomatic sentiment.
Physical fundamentals remain constructive. Asian demand continues to hold firm, particularly across India, while European coal burn remains supported by relatively favourable economics versus gas. With supply chains still constrained and freight costs elevated, the market continues to retain a structurally supported tone despite softer geopolitical pricing.

Coal Curves
• API2: Modestly firmer, supported by stable Atlantic sentiment
• API4: Continuing to outperform on export demand strength
• Spread: Reflects freight costs and regional supply tightness

Trade Insight
• Markets remain trapped between diplomatic optimism and physical supply reality
• Coal continues to demonstrate underlying resilience despite energy volatility
• Metals are increasingly supported by structural supply-side constraints rather than cyclical demand
• Logistics and inventory tightness remain the key drivers across commodity pricing

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets remained volatile, though Brent crude stabilised near $101/bbl after a sharp correction earlier in the week.
Comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the ceasefire with Iran remains intact helped reduce some geopolitical risk premium, despite renewed military clashes in the region. Markets interpreted the remarks as a signal that broader diplomatic discussions remain possible.
However, conditions across the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted. Since late February, shipping activity has operated at significantly reduced levels, materially constraining global crude flows and contributing to ongoing production outages across the Gulf.
According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 14 million barrels per day of supply continues to be affected by the disruption. While diplomatic progress has improved sentiment, physical market conditions remain exceptionally tight, leaving oil highly sensitive to any renewed escalation or breakdown in negotiations.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended gains for a fifth consecutive session, supported by resilient steel demand and strong mill margins in China. Blast furnace utilisation remains close to peak levels, underpinning consumption despite some moderation during the May Day holiday period. While rising Brazilian exports and developments at Simandou may add future supply pressure, current market focus remains centred on demand resilience and tightening inventories.
Copper
Copper strengthened further, reaching its highest levels since January at one stage during the week. The market continues to be supported by improving macro sentiment, structural demand growth linked to electrification and infrastructure, and ongoing supply concerns surrounding major mining operations such as Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
U.S. COMEX copper continues to outperform international benchmarks amid speculation around potential tariff measures and investor positioning linked to supply security concerns.
Sulphur
Sulphur markets remain in an acute supply lock-up phase, with physical availability tightening simultaneously across all major trade corridors. China’s withdrawal from sulphuric acid exports, Gulf logistics disruption, and export restrictions from Russia and Turkey have created a structurally undersupplied market.
Industrial impacts are intensifying across nickel, copper and fertiliser sectors, with supply security increasingly outweighing pricing considerations. Physical liquidity remains extremely limited, while logistical constraints continue to fragment global trade flows and elevate executable transaction costs.

Market Regime
Tight supply / Stable energy / Supported bulk / Structurally bullish metals

Closing View
Commodity markets continue to operate within an environment defined by constrained logistics, geopolitical uncertainty and structurally tight supply chains. While improving diplomatic sentiment between the United States and Iran has reduced some immediate risk premium, the underlying disruption to physical flows remains significant across energy and industrial commodities.
Coal and bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient demand and elevated freight costs, while metals remain increasingly driven by structural supply-side concerns. Until trade routes normalise and inventories rebuild more meaningfully, markets are likely to remain volatile, with physical availability continuing to dominate price direction across the commodity complex.

London Commodity News

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7th May 2026

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): _ $106.55/mt
API4 (May): $112.50/mt
Brent Crude: $98.25/bll down 2.98%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $110.80/mt down 0.31%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,404/mt up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,983/mt up 0.28%

Market sentiment today reflected a balance between easing geopolitical risk premiums and underlying structural support across physical markets, with price action remaining sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and global supply flows.

Coal
Volatility remained elevated across the energy complex, with prices extending recent losses through much of the session as expectations of potential US–Iran negotiations continued to weigh on sentiment. Front-month Brent crude and European gas were both down by around 3% intraday before recovering into the afternoon, as renewed focus on tightening inventory levels provided support. Coal markets followed a similar pattern, weakening early before retracing losses later in the day.
On the supply side, South Africa’s rail operator Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) has scheduled maintenance on its coal corridor from 21 July to 1 August, which is expected to constrain deliveries to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal. Historical trends indicate a pronounced reduction in volumes during this period, pointing to a temporary tightening in export availability.
In Europe, inventories at the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) hub rose sharply in the week to 3 May, reaching 3.2 million tonnes and surpassing the 3 million tonne level for the first time since January. The increase reflects steady import flows alongside softer coal burn, particularly in Germany. A significant portion of the build was concentrated at Rotterdam’s EMO terminal, with previously delayed cargoes now reflected in stock data.
In Asia, demand fundamentals remain firm. Rising temperatures across India are expected to drive higher power consumption through the peak summer period, with coal-fired generation likely to remain central given ongoing grid and transmission constraints limiting solar penetration. Record demand levels and expectations of further increases suggest continued strength in coal burn through May and June.

Brent Crude
Oil prices extended recent declines, with Brent crude falling below $97/bbl as markets weighed the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. Reports indicate that a preliminary framework has been proposed via intermediaries, aimed at ending hostilities and facilitating the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
While negotiations remain ongoing and subject to uncertainty, the prospect of restored shipping flows has weighed on prices. At the same time, US export data showed record outbound volumes, highlighting the role of alternative supply sources in partially offsetting disruptions in the Gulf.
Despite the recent pullback, underlying market conditions remain tight. Shipping through Hormuz continues at significantly reduced levels, and geopolitical risk remains embedded in pricing, particularly given the conditional nature of any potential agreement and the continued threat of renewed escalation.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures moved modestly higher, supported by stable underlying fundamentals and rising freight costs linked to energy market dynamics. The increase in shipping costs has provided additional price support, partially offsetting cautious procurement behaviour from steel mills.
Market sentiment has also been influenced by developments in US–Iran negotiations, with improving risk appetite offering some near-term support. However, physical market activity remains measured, with buyers continuing to prioritise essential restocking over speculative positioning.

Copper
Copper prices strengthened, supported by a weaker US dollar and improved macro sentiment linked to easing geopolitical tensions. Market positioning indicates renewed bullish interest, with increased open interest on the LME reflecting fresh buying activity.
On the supply side, logistical disruptions have constrained arrivals, maintaining a relatively tight spot market. Demand, however, remains cautious, with downstream consumers largely limiting purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated price levels.
Broader macro drivers, including currency movements and expectations around geopolitical developments, continue to dominate short-term price direction, while physical fundamentals provide underlying support.

Lead
LME lead opened at $1,972/mt and moved higher through the session, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and the ongoing impact of a smelter disruption outside China. Prices reached an intraday high of $1,989/mt, marking the strongest level since late February.
In China, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,970 yuan/mt in overnight trading but came under early pressure. Rising domestic inventories and a widening futures–spot spread weighed on sentiment, prompting a pullback shortly after the open. Prices then stabilised within a narrow 16,850–16,880 yuan/mt range, before closing at 16,840 yuan/mt, down 0.18%. Open interest declined by 5,756 lots to 65,481, indicating a reduction in positioning.
Fundamentally, supply has increased following the resumption of production at primary smelters in southwest and east China, alongside rising warehouse arrivals as post-holiday logistics normalised. Additional inventory builds have been observed in east China ahead of SHFE 2605 contract delivery. However, ongoing maintenance at secondary smelters in east China continues to constrain regional availability.
On the demand side, downstream activity has begun to recover following the Labour Day holiday, which may moderate the pace of inventory accumulation. With both supportive and bearish factors present, lead prices are expected to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.

Across markets, price action remains closely tied to geopolitical developments, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the trajectory of US–Iran negotiations. While recent signals point toward potential de-escalation, underlying supply constraints and logistical disruptions continue to influence physical markets. Near-term direction is likely to remain headline-driven, with volatility persisting as markets balance improving sentiment against unresolved structural risks.

LCB Market Brief – 6 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
• Brent Crude: $101.52/bbl, down 7.60% — sharply lower on improving diplomatic signals
• Coal (API2 May): $105.50/mt — weaker, tracking energy downside
• Coal (API4 May): $111.50/mt — relatively supported, though softer
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.80/mt, down 0.14% — firm, with strong underlying support
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,372/mt, up 1.81% — higher, supported by sentiment and structure
• Chrome Concentrate (40–42% CIF China): $318/mt — stable, with subdued demand

What Matters Today
• Energy markets softened sharply on improving diplomatic signals around U.S.–Iran negotiations
• Oil and gas led the move lower, while bulk and base metals showed mixed resilience
• Coal tracked energy weakness, while iron ore and copper remained supported by fundamentals
• Markets remain highly headline-driven, with pricing sensitive to negotiation outcomes

Coal
Coal markets declined in line with the broader energy complex, following a sharp bearish reaction to reports that Iran is reviewing a U.S.-proposed peace framework.
Brent crude and European gas both fell significantly intraday, with losses of around 12% at the lows before recovering into the close. Despite the rebound, both markets ended materially weaker, dragging coal prices lower. API2 led declines, falling by close to $6 after trading at even lower levels earlier in the session.
Coal continues to track energy directionally, with limited independent momentum in the current environment. While underlying demand remains stable, price action is being driven almost entirely by developments in the broader energy complex.

Coal Curves
• API2: Sharply lower, reflecting Atlantic basin exposure to energy sentiment
• API4: Softer, though relatively more resilient
• Spread: Continues to reflect regional demand and freight dynamics

Trade Insight
• Markets are increasingly trading on binary geopolitical outcomes
• Coal remains a derivative of oil and gas direction in the short term
• Metals are showing resilience due to cost support and supply absorption
• Price direction across the complex hinges on credible progress in negotiations

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets fell sharply, with Brent declining below $103/bbl as optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement weighed on prices.
The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal and a response expected via regional intermediaries. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to price direction.
Despite the softer sentiment, physical flows remain constrained. The U.S. has indicated a pause in its naval escort programme, but shipping volumes through the Strait are still well below normal levels, and supply disruption persists. Inventories continue to absorb part of the shock, maintaining a degree of structural tightness.
Near-term price direction will be driven by negotiation outcomes. A confirmed agreement could trigger a sharp correction as supply returns, while any breakdown in talks would likely see a rapid rebound in prices.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices rose sharply, supported by continued destocking and absorption of previously restricted port inventories. Demand remains relatively firm, with steel production still operating at elevated levels despite some moderation in pig iron output. Rising costs and tightening margins may cap further upside, though near-term support remains intact.
Copper
Copper moved higher, holding above $13,000/t as sentiment improved. However, elevated inventories and softer demand signals—particularly in China—are limiting upside. The market remains balanced between structural support and near-term demand uncertainty, with pricing driven by both macro developments and inventory trends.
Chrome Ore
Chrome markets were broadly stable, with spot prices unchanged and futures supported by cost pressures. Post-holiday demand remains subdued, with high inventories weighing on sentiment. In the near term, the market is expected to remain sideways, balancing firm costs against cautious buying.

Market Regime
Diplomatic-driven correction / Softer energy / Supported bulk / Resilient metals

Closing View
Markets are entering a critical phase, with pricing increasingly driven by expectations around a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The sharp correction in energy highlights the sensitivity of markets to shifts in perceived supply risk.
Despite this, underlying structural tightness across energy and industrial inputs remains in place, providing continued support to bulk and base metals. Until there is definitive clarity on the outcome of negotiations and the normalisation of supply flows, markets are likely to remain volatile, with price direction dictated by geopolitical developments rather than purely fundamental drivers.

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