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London Commodity News 4th June 2026

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Commodity markets remained heavily driven by supply security concerns and geopolitical developments, with energy markets continuing to react sharply to every shift in Middle East negotiations. While oil markets softened on renewed diplomatic optimism, tighter physical balances across coal supply chains continued to provide support for thermal coal markets.

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (June): _$134.00/mt down $5.00/mt

API2 (July):* _$130.00/mt down $3.00/mt

API4 (June):* _$122.50/mt down $1.00/mt

API4 (July):* $120.00 down $1.00/mt
Brent Crude: $95.02/bll down 2.85%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $101.55/mt down 0.44%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,928/mt up 0.75%

Coal

The volatile, yo-yo behaviour across coal markets continued today, with yesterday’s strength giving way to weaker pricing across much of the forward curve as lower oil prices and renewed optimism surrounding potential peace negotiations weighed on sentiment once again.

Despite weakness further forward, Newcastle physical markets remained notably active. Strong buying interest saw July physical trade up to $150/t, helping prompt NEWC swaps rally despite broader weakness across forward markets. August physical activity also remained firm, with multiple trades reported around the $149/t level.

Underlying coal market fundamentals remain relatively supportive, with tightening export supply conditions continuing to offset broader macro uncertainty.

In Colombia, the blockade affecting Cerrejón’s rail corridor entered its ninth consecutive day, continuing to disrupt mining, rail and export operations at one of the Atlantic Basin’s largest thermal coal supply systems. The disruption adds further supply-side risk and reinforces concerns surrounding logistics reliability across key export corridors.

European supply balances also remain influenced by growing inventories and constrained inland logistics. Coal inventories across the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose by 42,000t during the week to 31 May to reach 3.74mn t, while inventories at Rotterdam’s EMO terminal increased to 2.5mn t. However, low Rhine river levels continue restricting downstream deliveries, limiting the ability for inventories to move efficiently through the supply chain.

In South Africa, logistical risks remain firmly in focus following a derailment on the Transnet coal export corridor servicing Richards Bay. Although partial operations resumed relatively quickly, the incident again highlighted ongoing infrastructure vulnerabilities ahead of Transnet’s scheduled maintenance programme later this summer.

Despite these operational challenges, RBCT inventories remained above the 4mn t threshold for a third consecutive week. Export demand remained robust, particularly from India, which continued to dominate South African export flows.

European thermal coal markets continue receiving support from tightening physical conditions, with Argus NAR 6,000 kcal/kg CIF ARA rising above $140/t for the first time since late 2023 as Colombian supply risks, South African logistical concerns, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and broader gas market concerns continue supporting sentiment.

Brent Crude

Brent crude extended recent losses, falling more than 3% toward $94/bbl as optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran improved market sentiment.

Markets reacted positively following reports that Israel and Lebanon had moved closer toward a ceasefire agreement, while comments from President Trump suggesting progress in negotiations with Iran could emerge within days added further downside pressure to prices.

However, significant uncertainty remains. Iranian officials continued denying meaningful progress while Israeli leadership signalled military operations could continue. Recent exchanges between US and Iranian forces, alongside the widening regional spillover into Bahrain and Kuwait, continue to underline the fragile nature of current negotiations.

Despite improving sentiment, oil markets remain highly sensitive to conflicting headlines and uncertainty surrounding the eventual reopening of regional energy flows.

Iron Ore

Iron ore prices moved lower amid concerns surrounding increasing global supply growth and weaker market sentiment.

The most-traded DCE September contract closed down 1.85% at 767 yuan/mt while portside prices declined by 6–11 yuan/mt.

Market sentiment was weighed by expectations of growing exports from Guinea’s Simandou project alongside broader concerns regarding rising seaborne supply. However, elevated freight costs continue limiting downside pressure, while underlying steel production remains relatively supportive.

For now, markets continue balancing supportive demand conditions against increasingly abundant supply expectations.

Copper

Copper prices eased back below $14,000/mt as geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns weighed on market sentiment.

Although long-term demand drivers remain supportive, markets are increasingly focused on near-term risks surrounding global growth, higher energy costs and potential changes to US trade policy.

Attention remains centred on an upcoming US decision regarding potential tariffs on refined copper imports. Market participants remain concerned that further tariff measures could accelerate stock movements into US warehouses and tighten availability elsewhere.

Despite recent price weakness, structural demand from electrification, renewable energy expansion, artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centre development continues to provide underlying support for longer-term market fundamentals.

Commodity markets continue balancing competing forces of tightening physical fundamentals, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting macroeconomic expectations. While energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, supply disruptions and logistical constraints continue to provide underlying support across several key commodity markets.

London Commodity News – 28th May 2026

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Commodity markets remained highly reactive to developments in the Middle East as shifting headlines around negotiations, military activity and shipping disruptions continued to drive intraday volatility. While energy markets remain focused on the evolving geopolitical picture, industrial metals continue balancing macroeconomic uncertainty against increasingly constrained physical supply conditions.

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): $113.25/mt up $0.25/mt
API2 (June): 130.25/mt up $1.25/mt
API4 (May): $117.35/mt up $0.05/mt
API4 (June): $117.50/mt down $0.75/mt
Brent Crude: $93.16/bll up 0.99%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $105.00/mt down 3.49%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,665/mt up 0.99%

Coal
Energy markets remained highly volatile and headline-driven, with oil and gas prices continuing to move sharply throughout the session as participants reacted to developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
European gas and oil prices strengthened early and continued rising through much of the day, with front-month TTF gaining around 5% intraday and Brent crude rising close to 3% at its peak. The strength across the broader energy complex also provided support to coal markets, with swaps moving firmer through the morning session.
However, sentiment shifted during the afternoon after reports emerged suggesting that an extension to the US-Iran ceasefire and additional negotiations aimed at broader de-escalation were being actively considered. The headlines triggered a sharp reversal across energy markets, with Brent crude ultimately closing around 1% lower while European gas retained more modest gains of approximately 1%.
Coal markets also eased alongside the softer energy sentiment, although API2 contracts remained modestly firmer overall while other coal indices closed weaker on the day.

Brent Crude
Crude oil markets remained highly volatile on Thursday as participants continued navigating conflicting geopolitical headlines and rapidly changing expectations around the Middle East conflict.
Oil prices initially rose around 2% after reports emerged that the United States had carried out additional overnight strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, increasing concerns that tensions may once again be escalating despite ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
The rebound followed a sharp sell-off during the previous session, where both major crude benchmarks fell more than 5% amid optimism that negotiations could ultimately lead to a broader agreement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump stated he remained “not satisfied” with current negotiations, while the White House dismissed reports suggesting Iran and Oman could jointly oversee shipping through Hormuz under a proposed agreement.
According to reports citing US officials, recent military strikes targeted locations considered threats to both maritime traffic and American military assets operating near the Strait.
Despite renewed tensions, crude remains on track for a second consecutive weekly decline as markets continue pricing the possibility that at least an interim agreement could still emerge. However, significant obstacles remain, particularly around Iran’s nuclear programme and the future control of shipping through Hormuz.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures remained weak and volatile during trading, with the most-traded September contract on the Dalian exchange closing marginally lower at 780.5 yuan/mt.
Market participants continued to point toward relatively supportive underlying fundamentals despite softer price action. Analysts noted that stronger Chinese import demand during FY2025 has continued to offset weaker domestic steel production, while reduced scrap usage within Chinese steelmaking continues supporting iron ore consumption.
Although broader ferrous market sentiment remains cautious, underlying demand conditions continue to provide support and limit downside pressure for prices.

Copper
Copper prices edged modestly higher after fresh Chinese policy support measures helped offset renewed concerns surrounding Middle East tensions.
Three-month LME copper recovered from earlier weakness, rising 0.4% after recently falling to its lowest level since late May. Support came after reports suggested China’s central bank had instructed domestic banks to increase lending activity, reinforcing expectations that policymakers remain focused on supporting economic activity.
However, investor sentiment remained cautious after renewed US military strikes against Iranian targets reduced confidence that negotiations could produce a near-term resolution. Market participants continue balancing two competing forces: weaker macroeconomic sentiment and slower industrial activity on one side, versus tightening physical supply conditions on the other.
Concerns over sulphuric acid availability remain a key theme for copper markets, with shortages continuing to threaten mine production and refining activity globally.
Meanwhile, tariff expectations continue influencing global trade flows. COMEX copper maintained a substantial premium over LME prices as traders continued shipping material into the United States ahead of a potential decision regarding refined copper import tariffs later this year. A stronger US Dollar also added modest pressure, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers.

Commodity markets continue to trade within an environment dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, tightening physical balances and evolving trade flows. While near-term price direction remains heavily influenced by developments surrounding the Middle East, structural supply constraints across energy and metals markets continue providing an important underlying source of support.

London Commodity News – 19th May 2026

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Commodity markets remained volatile as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict continued to dominate sentiment across the energy complex. While signs of possible negotiations briefly weighed on oil markets, tightening physical balances and continued disruption to global energy flows maintained broader support across coal, gas and industrial commodities.

Prices at 17h00 BST
API2 (May): $112.00/mt API2 (June): 124.00/mt
API4 (May): $117.50/mt API4 (June): $119.50/mt
Brent Crude: $110.92/bll down 1.05%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe: $109.55/mt down 0.18%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,409.00/mt down 1.39%

Coal
Volatility across the energy complex continued through today’s session, with European gas prices strengthening sharply and front-month TTF closing around 3.5% higher. API2 coal prices also rallied strongly, supported both by the strength in European gas markets and firmer physical DES ARA pricing, which traded materially above yesterday’s offer levels and stimulated renewed buying interest.
The broader strength in API2 also provided support to API4 and NEWC swaps, with sentiment across the coal complex remaining underpinned by continued uncertainty surrounding global energy supply flows and elevated replacement costs.

Brent Crude
Oil prices moved lower today after US President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike on Iran had been paused to allow negotiations to continue. Brent crude futures fell around 1% during the session, although volatility remained elevated as markets continued reacting to rapidly changing geopolitical headlines. Trump stated that the United States remained prepared to resume military action should negotiations fail, reinforcing the fragile and highly uncertain nature of current diplomatic efforts. Despite the temporary easing in tensions, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, continuing to represent one of the largest disruptions to global oil and LNG supply flows in recent history.
Iran’s latest proposal reportedly includes demands for a cessation of hostilities across multiple fronts, the withdrawal of US forces from areas near Iran and compensation linked to war-related damage. Meanwhile, the United States extended a sanctions waiver allowing certain energy-vulnerable countries to continue purchasing Russian seaborne crude. Global oil markets continue to balance hopes for diplomacy against tightening physical balances. Strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns in the United States and declining crude inventories are continuing to reinforce concerns surrounding supply availability heading into peak summer demand season.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded weaker today, with the most-traded DCE September contract closing down 0.87% at 798.5 yuan/mt. Portside spot prices were broadly stable, changing between flat and up 3 yuan/mt, while overall spot market activity remained subdued.
Steel mills largely maintained a cautious wait-and-see approach, with procurement continuing to focus on immediate production requirements. Despite softer sentiment, underlying demand fundamentals remained relatively supportive.
SMM survey data indicated that blast furnace maintenance impacts are expected to ease further next week, supporting expectations that pig iron production will remain elevated overall. Strong steel exports and resilient downstream demand outside China are also continuing to underpin iron ore consumption, limiting downside pressure despite short-term price weakness.

Copper
Copper prices edged lower today as inflation concerns, elevated energy prices and weaker Chinese economic data weighed on broader industrial metals sentiment. Three-month LME copper declined around 0.3% to $13,544.50/mt.
Analysts noted that the recent pullback follows a strong rally earlier this month, with macroeconomic concerns now temporarily offsetting underlying supply-side support. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices continue to raise concerns over inflation persistence and tighter monetary policy, both of which could weigh on global industrial activity and metals demand.
At the same time, softer Chinese data across retail sales, investment and industrial production added further pressure to sentiment. Nevertheless, copper remains well supported structurally, with prices still up more than 8% year-to-date amid ongoing supply constraints and continued demand growth linked to electrification, AI infrastructure and energy transition investment.

Despite periodic volatility linked to geopolitical headlines, commodity markets continue to reflect a broader environment of tightening physical balances and increasingly constrained supply chains. Energy security concerns, resilient industrial demand and structural supply limitations across several key commodities are expected to continue supporting markets even as macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated.

London Commodity Brokers

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11 May 2026

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): $109.50/mt
API4 (May): $115.50/mt
Brent Crude: $103.80/bll up 2.48%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $111.50/mt down 0.45%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,945/mt up 2.73%
South Africa 40-42% Chrome Concentrate: $310/mt CIF China down $7/mt

Global commodity markets began the week navigating a fragile balance between geopolitical uncertainty and tightening physical fundamentals. Energy markets remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, while industrial metals continued to draw support from resilient demand and constrained supply conditions. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, broader risk appetite across metals markets remained comparatively firm.

Coal
There was significant strength across the energy complex today, with oil and gas prices opening materially firmer before extending gains through the afternoon, providing support to coal markets as well. Reports over the weekend and into today indicating that no agreement had yet been reached on the proposed US-Iran peace framework reinforced concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could persist for longer than previously expected. By the close, front-month Brent crude and TTF gas contracts were up approximately 3.5% and 5.5% respectively
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Brent Crude
Brent crude futures rose back above $103/bl after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a US-backed peace proposal, reinforcing concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz may persist.
Shipping flows through the waterway remain heavily constrained, continuing to impact global crude, LNG and refined product markets. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the market is losing close to 100 million barrels of supply per week, while security concerns intensified following fresh drone incidents near Qatar and interceptions in the UAE and Kuwait.
Although some cargoes from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have resumed limited transit, overall flows remain well below pre-conflict levels. Morgan Stanley warned that prolonged disruptions could push Brent crude toward $150/bl later this summer.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange moved higher before easing later in the session, with the most-traded September contract closing up 0.73% at 822.5 yuan/mt.
Global iron ore shipments fell sharply last week, down around 20% week-on-week due largely to weather disruptions in Australia and Brazil. At the same time, steel mill operating rates remain elevated, supporting underlying demand for iron ore.
Spot market activity remained cautious, however, with mills continuing to resist higher prices and focusing mainly on rigid restocking demand. Market participants expect prices to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.

Copper
Copper prices extended their rally, with three-month LME copper rising 1.3% to $13,573/mt, marking a sixth consecutive daily gain and the strongest level in more than three months.
The market continues to be supported by tightening supply conditions, low inventories and resilient structural demand linked to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and data centre expansion.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, copper has remained comparatively resilient, with traders increasingly focused on long-term supply-demand fundamentals rather than short-term geopolitical headlines.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices remained broadly stable, although market sentiment weakened further as downstream demand remained subdued.
Spot prices at Tianjin port were largely unchanged, while CIF transaction prices for South African 40–42% fines eased to $310/mt. Elevated port inventories and limited post-holiday buying activity continued to pressure traders.
Market participants remain cautious, with procurement activity focused mainly on immediate operational requirements and overall trading activity remaining subdued.

Commodity markets continue to navigate a complex environment shaped by geopolitical instability, constrained logistics and tightening physical balances across several key raw materials. While energy markets remain dominated by developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, industrial metals continue to derive support from structurally firm demand and increasingly constrained supply conditions. Market volatility is expected to remain elevated as participants assess both geopolitical developments and the sustainability of current physical market tightness.

Market Brief – 8 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 BST)
• Brent Crude: $101.57/bbl, up 1.51% — supported, despite easing geopolitical risk premium
• Coal (API2 May): $107.10/mt — firmer, tracking broader energy stability
• Coal (API4 May): $114.00/mt — supported, with continued export strength
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.95/mt, down 0.14% — steady, underpinned by resilient demand
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,572/mt, up 1.32% — strong, supported by structural supply concerns

What Matters Today
• Markets ended the week balancing improving diplomatic sentiment against ongoing physical disruption
• Energy prices stabilised, though underlying supply conditions remain exceptionally tight
• Bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient industrial demand and elevated costs
• Metals remain underpinned by structural supply constraints and logistical disruption

Coal
Coal markets traded firmer, supported by a more stable energy complex following the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude and European gas both ended the session modestly higher, helping coal prices recover steadily through the day.
The move was less aggressive than earlier rallies, but broad-based support remained visible across indices as markets continued to price in elevated energy risk despite improving diplomatic sentiment.
Physical fundamentals remain constructive. Asian demand continues to hold firm, particularly across India, while European coal burn remains supported by relatively favourable economics versus gas. With supply chains still constrained and freight costs elevated, the market continues to retain a structurally supported tone despite softer geopolitical pricing.

Coal Curves
• API2: Modestly firmer, supported by stable Atlantic sentiment
• API4: Continuing to outperform on export demand strength
• Spread: Reflects freight costs and regional supply tightness

Trade Insight
• Markets remain trapped between diplomatic optimism and physical supply reality
• Coal continues to demonstrate underlying resilience despite energy volatility
• Metals are increasingly supported by structural supply-side constraints rather than cyclical demand
• Logistics and inventory tightness remain the key drivers across commodity pricing

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets remained volatile, though Brent crude stabilised near $101/bbl after a sharp correction earlier in the week.
Comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the ceasefire with Iran remains intact helped reduce some geopolitical risk premium, despite renewed military clashes in the region. Markets interpreted the remarks as a signal that broader diplomatic discussions remain possible.
However, conditions across the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted. Since late February, shipping activity has operated at significantly reduced levels, materially constraining global crude flows and contributing to ongoing production outages across the Gulf.
According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 14 million barrels per day of supply continues to be affected by the disruption. While diplomatic progress has improved sentiment, physical market conditions remain exceptionally tight, leaving oil highly sensitive to any renewed escalation or breakdown in negotiations.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended gains for a fifth consecutive session, supported by resilient steel demand and strong mill margins in China. Blast furnace utilisation remains close to peak levels, underpinning consumption despite some moderation during the May Day holiday period. While rising Brazilian exports and developments at Simandou may add future supply pressure, current market focus remains centred on demand resilience and tightening inventories.
Copper
Copper strengthened further, reaching its highest levels since January at one stage during the week. The market continues to be supported by improving macro sentiment, structural demand growth linked to electrification and infrastructure, and ongoing supply concerns surrounding major mining operations such as Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
U.S. COMEX copper continues to outperform international benchmarks amid speculation around potential tariff measures and investor positioning linked to supply security concerns.
Sulphur
Sulphur markets remain in an acute supply lock-up phase, with physical availability tightening simultaneously across all major trade corridors. China’s withdrawal from sulphuric acid exports, Gulf logistics disruption, and export restrictions from Russia and Turkey have created a structurally undersupplied market.
Industrial impacts are intensifying across nickel, copper and fertiliser sectors, with supply security increasingly outweighing pricing considerations. Physical liquidity remains extremely limited, while logistical constraints continue to fragment global trade flows and elevate executable transaction costs.

Market Regime
Tight supply / Stable energy / Supported bulk / Structurally bullish metals

Closing View
Commodity markets continue to operate within an environment defined by constrained logistics, geopolitical uncertainty and structurally tight supply chains. While improving diplomatic sentiment between the United States and Iran has reduced some immediate risk premium, the underlying disruption to physical flows remains significant across energy and industrial commodities.
Coal and bulk commodities continue to find support from resilient demand and elevated freight costs, while metals remain increasingly driven by structural supply-side concerns. Until trade routes normalise and inventories rebuild more meaningfully, markets are likely to remain volatile, with physical availability continuing to dominate price direction across the commodity complex.

London Commodity News

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29th April 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): _ $102.40/mt
API4 (April): $105.70/mt
Brent Crude: $109.76/bll up 5.14%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.60/mt down 0.51%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,019/mt down 0.12%

Energy markets remain firmly supported by persistent supply disruptions, with geopolitical risk continuing to drive price direction across the complex.

Coal
Energy markets strengthened significantly, with Brent crude and European gas rising by approximately 7% and 9% respectively. The move was driven by reports suggesting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be more prolonged than previously anticipated, reinforcing supply concerns.
Coal markets responded sharply, with prices rallying across the curve and some tenors gaining in excess of $5 on the day.

Brent Crude
Oil prices extended their rally, with Brent crude rising close to 4% and touching a one-month high above $115/bl for the prompt contract. The move marks an eighth consecutive day of gains, driven by expectations that the US will extend its blockade of Iranian ports, further constraining Middle East supply.
With flows through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily restricted, the market continues to price in a prolonged supply shock. Alternative loading arrangements outside the Gulf are being explored, underlining the severity of the disruption.
Additional support has come from declining US crude inventories and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while the UAE’s decision to exit OPEC has added a layer of longer-term complexity, albeit with limited immediate impact on supply.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices firmed on DCE, with the most active contract rising 0.9% to 787.5 RMB/t and spot prices gaining 6–7 RMB/t. Despite the price strength, trading activity remained subdued, with steel mills maintaining a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
Tightness in near-term supply has provided support, although signs are emerging that the market may be approaching a plateau. While macro conditions and downstream demand remain relatively stable, the sustainability of current inventory tightness is uncertain, suggesting limited upside without stronger fundamental backing.

Copper
Copper prices weakened marginally, with LME three-month copper trading at $13,023 at the time of writing. A stronger dollar, combined with concerns over global growth and inflation linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, weighed on sentiment.
While tighter inventories and resilient physical demand in China have offered some support, overall market tone remains fragile. The complex continues to balance supply-side constraints against softer demand expectations, with further price direction likely to depend on macroeconomic signals and any easing in geopolitical tensions.

Sulphur
The sulphur market remains in a state of systemic supply collapse, with multiple supply channels constrained simultaneously and no meaningful improvement in logistics. Prices continue to be driven by scarcity rather than fundamentals, with spot availability extremely limited and transactions increasingly negotiated on a case-by-case basis.
A combination of restricted Middle Eastern flows, tightening export policies in Asia, and ongoing limitations from other key producers has removed much of the market’s flexibility, leaving buyers heavily exposed to availability risk. Industrial impact is now clearly visible, with production cutbacks emerging across nickel, fertiliser, and copper sectors as input constraints begin to outweigh cost considerations.
In the absence of a credible recovery in trade flows, the market is expected to remain tight, with supply security firmly replacing price as the primary concern for participants.

Commodity markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with energy continuing to lead the complex higher, while metals reflect a more cautious outlook amid macroeconomic and demand-side uncertainty.

LCB Market Brief – 23 April 2026

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London Commodity News

*Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)*

  • *Brent Crude:* $102.93/bbl, up 1.00% — elevated, with sustained supply disruption risk
  • *Coal (API2 April):* $102.35/mt — supported, tracking strength across the energy complex
  • *Coal (API4 April):* $105.50/mt — firm, with export sentiment holding
  • *Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe):* $107.20/mt, up 0.05% — stable, underpinned by demand and tighter supply
  • *Copper (LME 3M):* $13,442/mt, down 1.60% — softer, with macro pressure offsetting supply risks
  • *Manganese Ore (42% Mn CIF China):* $5.40/mtu — firm, supported by rising costs and import demand

*What Matters Today*

  • Markets remain firmly supply-driven, with disruption to key trade routes dominating sentiment
  • Energy continues to lead, with oil holding above $100/bbl on sustained supply constraints
  • Coal is supported by energy strength, though physical markets remain well supplied
  • Metals are mixed, balancing cost support with softer near-term demand signals

*Coal*

Coal markets extended gains in line with the broader energy complex, supported by ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of progress toward de-escalation.

Front-month Brent crude and European gas rose by approximately 1.5% and 2% respectively, providing support to coal swaps, with Newcastle once again leading the move higher. However, the physical Newcastle market remains adequately supplied, limiting upside in the prompt portion of the curve.

Coal continues to track energy directionally, though with more muted price action. While sentiment remains supportive, physical availability—particularly in the Pacific—continues to cap near-term gains.

*Coal Curves (LCB Data)*

  • *API2*: Supported by broader energy strength
  • *API4:* Holding firm, reflecting stable export dynamics
  • *Spread:* Continues to reflect freight and regional supply factors

*Trade Insight*

  • Energy markets remain the primary driver, with coal following oil-led sentiment
  • Physical oversupply in parts of the coal market is capping prompt upside despite stronger derivatives
  • Metals are increasingly influenced by input costs, particularly sulphur and energy
  • Shipping disruption remains the core transmission channel across commodities

*Market Focus: Brent Crude*

Oil markets remain elevated, with Brent holding above $100/bbl as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.

The Strait is now effectively blockaded by both the United States and Iran, with reports suggesting more than 800 vessels are stranded on either side. This has reinforced concerns over a sustained and material supply shock, with estimates indicating potential disruption of up to 13 million barrels per day.

Tensions have escalated further through reciprocal vessel seizures and increased military activity. Donald Trump has signalled a more assertive approach to securing the route, while Iran has moved to assert greater control over transit, including proposals to introduce tolling mechanisms.

Despite the extension of a ceasefire reducing immediate infrastructure risks, the continued closure of the Strait remains the dominant factor underpinning prices. Until access is restored, oil is expected to remain elevated and highly sensitive to developments in shipping flows and military activity.

*Additional Markets*

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices eased slightly, with futures and spot prices softening despite supportive fundamentals. Demand remains firm, driven by restocking ahead of China’s Labour Day holiday and sustained steel output. At the same time, reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil have tightened port inventories, providing underlying support. The market remains balanced, with near-term weakness offset by strong demand and constrained supply.

*Copper*
Copper retreated from recent highs, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. While supply-side concerns—particularly around sulphuric acid availability—continue to provide support, signs of softer spot demand in China have emerged, including a shift from premiums to discounts. The market is currently trading cautiously, balancing cost pressures with evolving demand conditions.

*Manganese Ore*
Manganese ore markets remain firm, supported by rising imports into China and increasing cost pressures. South African supply has driven higher volumes, while elevated electricity and freight costs continue to push CIF prices higher. Demand recovery remains uneven, with regional variations in alloy production, but overall sentiment is supported by cost-driven pricing dynamics.

*Market Regime*

*Supply shock / Elevated energy / Supported bulk / Mixed metals*

Closing View

The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the defining feature across commodity markets, sustaining elevated energy prices and reinforcing supply-side risk. Oil is firmly in control of broader sentiment, with coal and other energy-linked commodities following directionally.

While bulk commodities remain supported by underlying demand and tightening supply, metals are increasingly caught between rising input costs and softer near-term consumption signals. Until there is clarity on the reopening of key trade routes and the trajectory of geopolitical developments, markets are likely to remain volatile and driven by supply risk rather than purely fundamental demand trends.

Market Brief – 16 April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • Brent Crude: $98.13/bbl, up 3.36% —supported, with geopolitical risk premium still embedded
  • Coal (API2 April): $103.00/mt —trading activity elevated, with physical supply channels facing logistical pressure
  • Coal (API4 April): $104.50/mt —supported by tighter South African export optionality
  • Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $106.75/mt, down 0.14% — firm, supported by strong demand and tighter inventories
  • Copper (LME 3M): $13,258/mt, up 0.12% — slightly softer on the day, but underpinned by resilient demand
  • Lead (LME 3M): $1,952/mt, down 0.66% — weaker, as subdued battery-sector demand continues to weigh

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What Matters Today

  • Markets remain finely balanced, with sentiment continuing to pivot on developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations
  • Energy remains the key driver, with oil and coal reacting to supply risk, logistics and inventory shifts
  • Bulk commodities are holding firm, supported by resilient demand and rising cost pressure
  • Base metals are mixed, with copper supported by underlying demand while lead remains soft

Coal

Thermal coal markets saw a sharp increase in paper activity during March, with ICE futures and options volumes reaching 79.2 million tonnes, up 17% month-on-month and the highest level since March 2022. European API2 contracts accounted for more than 70% of total volume, highlighting both the importance of the Atlantic market and the rise in hedging and speculative participation amid elevated volatility.

In the physical market, ARA inventories continued to recover, rising by 170,000 tonnes to 2.7 million tonnes in the week to 12 April. This marks a further rebound from decade lows, with gains led by Rotterdam’s EMO terminal, although partly offset by declines at Amsterdam’s HES and Vlissingen’s Ovet. Despite this improvement, low Rhine river levels continue to constrain inland barge movements, limiting the pace at which stocks can be redistributed into the broader European market.

In South Africa, rising diesel costs linked to the geopolitical backdrop are adding pressure to logistics chains. Although total exports remain above year-ago levels, shipments from smaller non-RBCT ports have fallen by nearly 23% to 2.38 million tonnes. This reinforces RBCT’s dominant role in export flows and reduces flexibility in alternative channels, a factor that could tighten prompt availability if logistical pressures persist.

Coal Curves

  • API2: Remains the core paper benchmark, with strong participation reflecting elevated hedging interest
  • API4: Supported by tighter export optionality from South Africa and pressure on alternative port flows
  • Spread: Continues to reflect freight, origin competitiveness and logistical constraints across the Atlantic and Indian Ocean basins

Trade Insight

  • Coal is increasingly trading as a logistics and cost story, not simply a demand story
  • Rising derivatives volumes suggest participants are actively positioning for continued volatility
  • Tightness in alternative South African export channels may keep RBCT-linked material relatively supported
  • Across energy and bulk, transport constraints remain as important as outright supply

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil markets remain supported, though upside continues to be capped by uncertainty over the direction of U.S.–Iran negotiations. Comments suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end have improved risk appetite, but the blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are still well below normal.

The market remains highly sensitive to supply disruption risk. The Strait continues to operate at reduced capacity despite its significance for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Additional support is coming from declining U.S. fuel inventories and firm export demand, both of which reinforce the perception of an already tight market. European gas has also remained firm due to lower storage levels and weaker pipeline flows, adding broader support across the energy complex.

That said, sentiment remains fragile. Conflicting headlines around negotiations, coupled with continued military activity, are preventing the market from fully unwinding the geopolitical premium. In the near term, oil is likely to remain volatile and headline-driven, with price direction tied closely to both diplomatic developments and evidence of any normalisation in physical shipping flows.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore moved higher, supported by robust demand, firmer futures and tighter inventories. While physical trading remains cautious, blast furnace utilisation and hot metal output continue to provide a strong consumption base. The absence of any significant inventory release following the easing of certain trade restrictions has also removed a key bearish overhang. Rising energy costs and concerns around diesel availability are adding a further layer of support, leaving the market with a firm near-term bias.

Copper
Copper eased slightly but remains well supported overall. Sentiment has stabilised on expectations of extended ceasefire negotiations, while Chinese demand indicators continue to improve. Fabricators have stepped up purchases following earlier price declines, and both inventory drawdowns in China and firmer import premiums suggest underlying demand remains healthy. Although the market is still vulnerable to geopolitical volatility, the broader balance remains constructive.

Lead
Lead prices moved lower as weak demand continues to dominate the market. Buying interest from the battery sector remains subdued, reflecting seasonal softness, while stable primary production has kept supply comfortable. Reduced output from secondary producers has not been sufficient to materially tighten conditions. For now, the market remains soft, with any recovery likely dependent on either stronger end-user demand or a more supportive macro backdrop.

Market Regime

Headline-driven energy / Firm bulk / Constructive copper / Soft lead

Closing View

Commodity markets remain in a holding pattern, with sentiment shaped less by pure fundamentals and more by the interaction between geopolitics, logistics and demand resilience. Energy continues to set the tone, while bulk commodities are drawing support from strong consumption and rising operating costs. Metals are more mixed, with copper holding a constructive bias and lead lagging on weak end-use demand.

Until there is greater clarity on U.S.–Iran negotiations and the outlook for regional supply flows, markets are likely to remain reactive. In this environment, price direction will continue to depend not just on outright supply and demand, but on the credibility of headlines and the durability of physical trade routes.

Market Brief – 9th April 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • API2 (April): $105.70/mt
  • API4 (April): $105.00/mt
  • Brent Crude: $99.01/bbl, up 4.55%
  • SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $105.20/mt, unchanged
  • LME 3-Month Copper: $12,678/mt, down 0.37%

Market Overview

  • Markets remain headline-driven, with sentiment shifting rapidly on developments in the Middle East
  • Energy has stabilised after the initial sell-off, with oil rebounding as doubts over Hormuz reopening resurface
  • Coal continues to track energy lower, though with more limited downside
  • Metals remain mixed, reflecting weak underlying demand and macro uncertainty

Coal

Coal markets saw a brief recovery in line with the broader energy complex during the morning session, following the sharp declines observed yesterday. Early strength was driven by continued uncertainty around the implications of the ceasefire for near-term supply, with both European gas and Brent crude rising by around 3% before reversing later in the day.

The recovery proved short-lived, however, as renewed headlines—particularly around negotiations between Israel and Lebanon—reintroduced caution and weighed on prices into the afternoon. As a result, API2 closed lower on the day, while seaborne markets showed greater resilience, with NEWC and API4 remaining modestly supported.

Fundamentally, the market continues to balance structurally tight conditions against shifting sentiment. ARA inventories rose by 200,000 tonnes to 2.53 million tonnes, recovering from recent lows but still historically tight, while low Rhine river levels continue to pose a risk to inland deliveries and restocking efforts.

In export markets, South African coal remains under pressure, with bids across the quality spectrum easing. However, the relative strength seen in API4 and NEWC suggests that physical demand and regional dynamics are providing some support, even as broader energy sentiment remains the dominant driver in the near term.

Coal Curves (LCB Data)

  • API2: Weakened on the day after failing to hold early gains, with the curve reflecting continued sensitivity to European gas and broader energy sentiment. Front-end softness suggests limited conviction in near-term demand despite structurally tight inventories.
  • API4 / NEWC: More resilient, with parts of the curve holding onto early-session gains. This relative strength points to ongoing support from seaborne demand and tighter physical dynamics in export markets.
  • Spread: The divergence between API2 and seaborne curves is widening slightly, highlighting the increasing importance of regional factors and freight dynamics. This will be a key indicator to watch if energy markets remain volatile.

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Trade Insight

  • The market has shifted from risk premium unwinding to reassessing physical disruption, particularly around Hormuz
  • Coal’s relative stability highlights its role as a lagging energy indicator, with demand support cushioning downside
  • Freight and logistics—not outright supply—are likely to be the next key drivers across energy and bulk commodities

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Oil prices rebounded after the sharp sell-off, as doubts over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz quickly resurfaced. While the ceasefire initially triggered a significant unwind of geopolitical risk premium, the lack of meaningful vessel traffic has reinforced concerns that supply disruptions remain unresolved.

Shipping activity remains extremely limited, with operators hesitant to resume transit amid ongoing security risks, elevated insurance costs, and uncertainty around safe passage. Renewed tensions in the region, including additional military activity and retaliatory threats, have further undermined confidence in the ceasefire.

As a result, the geopolitical premium has only partially unwound. In the near term, oil is expected to remain supported and volatile, with price direction closely tied to developments in shipping flows and the durability of the ceasefire.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore
Iron ore extended its decline, with prices under pressure from ample supply and elevated inventories. Trading remains subdued, with steel mills focused on cost control and limiting procurement. Without a clear demand catalyst, the market is likely to remain weak in the near term.

Copper
Copper eased from recent highs as renewed geopolitical tension and rising energy prices weighed on sentiment. Softer import demand and rising global inventories, particularly on the LME, continue to limit upside. The market remains macro-sensitive, with further direction dependent on demand recovery.

Market Regime

Partial risk unwind / Volatile energy / Weak bulk / Cautious metals

Closing View

Markets have transitioned from an initial unwind of geopolitical risk to a more complex phase driven by uncertainty around physical supply and logistics. Energy remains the dominant driver, with oil setting the tone for coal and broader commodity markets.

While some risk premium has been removed, the absence of normalised shipping flows and the fragility of the ceasefire suggest that volatility will persist. Until there is clear evidence of sustained stability in the region, markets are likely to remain reactive, with price direction dictated by headlines rather than fundamentals.

London Commodity News

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1st April 2026

Market sentiment shifted modestly towards risk-on, with signs of potential de-escalation in the Middle East providing some relief across the commodity complex. Energy markets softened on easing geopolitical concerns, while industrial metals found support from improving demand signals and a more constructive macro backdrop.

Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: April API2 – $113.75/mt ; April API4 – $108.00/mt
Brent Crude: $102.10/bll; Down 1.80%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.40/mt; Down 1.21%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,422/mt; Up 0.77%

Coal
Energy markets came under broad pressure at the open, with sentiment driven by indications from the U.S. government that the Iran conflict could be brought to an end in the coming weeks. This triggered a sharp initial sell-off across the complex, with both Brent crude and European gas falling by more than 5% early in the session.
As the day progressed, oil prices staged a partial recovery, trimming losses to close around 2% lower. Gas markets, however, remained under sustained pressure, oscillating throughout the session but ultimately settling close to 7% down. The sharper weakness in gas continued to weigh on coal markets, where prices declined more significantly, particularly in API2, while Newcastle (NEWC) also posted notable losses.
Overall, the session reflected a shift in market focus towards potential de-escalation, with energy prices repricing lower as geopolitical risk premiums began to unwind, albeit unevenly across the complex.

Brent Crude
Oil prices moved lower following reports suggesting Iran may be willing to end the conflict, albeit under certain conditions. Additional comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating a possible withdrawal of U.S. forces within weeks further reinforced expectations that tensions could ease. However, uncertainty remains, with a third U.S. aircraft carrier heading to the region and lingering questions around the potential for further military escalation before any resolution is reached.
Despite the recent pullback, the underlying disruption to global energy flows remains significant. The effective choking of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent to its strongest monthly performance on record in March and continues to impact both oil and gas markets, contributing to elevated inflationary pressures. Encouragingly, vessel traffic through Hormuz has begun to recover, with a gradual increase in transits suggesting a tentative normalisation, although the situation remains fragile.
In the near term, oil markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. While signs of de-escalation are weighing on prices, the broader supply risk has not been fully resolved, leaving the market susceptible to renewed volatility should conditions deteriorate again.

Iron Ore
Iron ore markets experienced another volatile session, with prices strengthening in early trading before easing back later in the day. Futures closed marginally higher, while spot prices saw only modest gains. Market participation remained cautious, with traders willing to quote but steel mills continuing to focus on just-in-time procurement, resulting in relatively subdued spot activity.
Fundamentally, the picture remains supportive on the demand side. Blast furnace utilisation has continued to recover, lifting hot metal output and reinforcing steady consumption of iron ore. This has provided a firm base for prices, limiting downside risk despite the lack of strong buying momentum. At the same time, elevated inventory levels continue to cap upside, preventing any sustained rally.
Overall, the market remains balanced. Strong underlying demand is offset by ample supply, leaving prices rangebound in the short term. A clearer directional move is likely to depend on fresh catalysts, whether from changes in steel production, inventory drawdowns, or broader macro developments.

Copper
Copper extended its recent recovery, with prices reaching a two-week high as optimism grew around a potential end to the conflict. The market has responded positively to improving sentiment, with gains supported by stronger manufacturing data from China and signs of tightening physical supply, including declining exchange inventories and firmer premiums.
The rally has also been aided by a weaker U.S. dollar, improving affordability for buyers using other currencies and providing an additional tailwind to prices. Evidence of renewed physical demand, particularly following earlier price weakness, suggests that underlying consumption remains intact despite broader macro uncertainties.
While copper remains below its recent highs, the tone has improved in the near term. The market is balancing cautious optimism around geopolitical developments with ongoing concerns over global growth. If demand indicators continue to strengthen and macro conditions stabilise, further upside could develop, although volatility is likely to persist.

Across the complex, markets appear to be cautiously recalibrating as the prospect of de-escalation begins to take shape. Energy remains sensitive to any shift in geopolitical risk, while metals are finding support from improving demand fundamentals. For now, sentiment has stabilised, but with uncertainty still present, markets are likely to remain reactive to incoming headlines and data.

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