29th April 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): _ $102.40/mt
API4 (April): $105.70/mt
Brent Crude: $109.76/bll up 5.14%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.60/mt down 0.51%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,019/mt down 0.12%
Energy markets remain firmly supported by persistent supply disruptions, with geopolitical risk continuing to drive price direction across the complex.
Coal
Energy markets strengthened significantly, with Brent crude and European gas rising by approximately 7% and 9% respectively. The move was driven by reports suggesting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be more prolonged than previously anticipated, reinforcing supply concerns.
Coal markets responded sharply, with prices rallying across the curve and some tenors gaining in excess of $5 on the day.
Brent Crude
Oil prices extended their rally, with Brent crude rising close to 4% and touching a one-month high above $115/bl for the prompt contract. The move marks an eighth consecutive day of gains, driven by expectations that the US will extend its blockade of Iranian ports, further constraining Middle East supply.
With flows through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily restricted, the market continues to price in a prolonged supply shock. Alternative loading arrangements outside the Gulf are being explored, underlining the severity of the disruption.
Additional support has come from declining US crude inventories and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while the UAE’s decision to exit OPEC has added a layer of longer-term complexity, albeit with limited immediate impact on supply.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices firmed on DCE, with the most active contract rising 0.9% to 787.5 RMB/t and spot prices gaining 6–7 RMB/t. Despite the price strength, trading activity remained subdued, with steel mills maintaining a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
Tightness in near-term supply has provided support, although signs are emerging that the market may be approaching a plateau. While macro conditions and downstream demand remain relatively stable, the sustainability of current inventory tightness is uncertain, suggesting limited upside without stronger fundamental backing.
Copper
Copper prices weakened marginally, with LME three-month copper trading at $13,023 at the time of writing. A stronger dollar, combined with concerns over global growth and inflation linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, weighed on sentiment.
While tighter inventories and resilient physical demand in China have offered some support, overall market tone remains fragile. The complex continues to balance supply-side constraints against softer demand expectations, with further price direction likely to depend on macroeconomic signals and any easing in geopolitical tensions.
Sulphur
The sulphur market remains in a state of systemic supply collapse, with multiple supply channels constrained simultaneously and no meaningful improvement in logistics. Prices continue to be driven by scarcity rather than fundamentals, with spot availability extremely limited and transactions increasingly negotiated on a case-by-case basis.
A combination of restricted Middle Eastern flows, tightening export policies in Asia, and ongoing limitations from other key producers has removed much of the market’s flexibility, leaving buyers heavily exposed to availability risk. Industrial impact is now clearly visible, with production cutbacks emerging across nickel, fertiliser, and copper sectors as input constraints begin to outweigh cost considerations.
In the absence of a credible recovery in trade flows, the market is expected to remain tight, with supply security firmly replacing price as the primary concern for participants.
Commodity markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with energy continuing to lead the complex higher, while metals reflect a more cautious outlook amid macroeconomic and demand-side uncertainty.
