30th April 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): _ $102.35/mt
API4 (April): $105.70/mt
Brent Crude: $109.35/bll down 0.99%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $107.20/mt down 0.56%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,996.50/mt down 0.11%
Commodity markets remain driven by supply-side constraints and geopolitical uncertainty, with energy disruption continuing to filter through into industrial and bulk commodity pricing.
Coal
Energy markets experienced another highly volatile session. Brent crude traded sharply higher early in the day, reaching $126/bl, before reversing course and falling around $12 from the highs by the close. European gas prices also softened, with the front month down close to 2%. Coal followed the weaker gas trend, although NEWC coal swaps proved relatively resilient, ending broadly unchanged.
Coal fundamentals remain supported by steady demand and shifting supply dynamics. South African exports rose nearly 12% year-on-year in February to 6.26mn t, driven primarily by strong Indian restocking linked to firm steel and sponge iron production. However, buying momentum eased towards month-end as the US-Iran conflict introduced volatility in freight and pricing.
In Europe, coal continues to retain a structural advantage over gas in the power generation mix, with forward burn margins still favouring coal despite remaining negative overall. This is expected to underpin demand into the winter period, particularly in key markets such as Germany and the Netherlands.
At the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, stocks edged lower to 2.81mn t. Recent arrivals are unlikely to have been fully reflected in terminal data, leaving inventories relatively tight by historical standards and reinforcing a balanced but supported market structure.
Brent Crude
Oil markets remain highly volatile, with Brent crude pulling back after reaching multi-year highs above $120/bl. The reversal reflects ongoing uncertainty around the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict and diminishing expectations of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the correction, the broader trend remains supported by constrained supply, with limited tanker movement and continued restrictions on Gulf exports. Markets are increasingly focused on physical shortages, including tightening inventories and emerging disruptions such as jet fuel supply constraints.
Geopolitical risk continues to dominate pricing, with the balance of probability shifting towards prolonged disruption rather than rapid resolution, reinforcing a structurally elevated price environment.
Iron Ore
Iron ore markets remained firm, supported by cost pressures and steady demand, although volatility persists. Prices held above $107/t despite the release of previously restricted port inventories, suggesting the market has largely absorbed near-term supply adjustments.
Rising diesel and freight costs linked to Middle East tensions are lifting the cost curve, providing a floor to prices even as global shipments increase. At the same time, demand fundamentals remain mixed, with Chinese steel consumption still under pressure, particularly in construction.
Short-term support continues from high hot metal production and pre-holiday restocking, although expectations of increasing supply and potential moderation in demand suggest prices are likely to fluctuate at elevated levels rather than trend higher.
Copper
Copper prices stabilised after recent declines, supported by stronger-than-expected manufacturing data in China and ongoing supply-side risks. LME three-month copper edged higher, with the market balancing improving demand signals against broader macro uncertainty.
Supply concerns remain a key theme, particularly linked to disruptions in Sulphur flows, which are impacting copper refining processes. Constraints on sulphuric acid availability are beginning to affect global production dynamics, particularly in Chile and China.
While near-term physical demand remains relatively subdued, longer-term structural drivers—including electrification and infrastructure investment—continue to underpin sentiment.
Sulphur
The sulphur market remains structurally tight, with only limited signs of short-term easing. Supply continues to be constrained by disrupted Middle Eastern flows, export restrictions in key producing regions, and logistical bottlenecks, leaving the market operating well below normal capacity.
Industrial impacts are becoming increasingly visible across metals, batteries, and fertilisers, where supply availability is now dictating production decisions. Despite some seasonal demand softness, the market remains driven by restricted supply rather than pricing dynamics.
Absent a meaningful recovery in trade flows, sulphur is expected to remain firm, with supply security continuing to outweigh price as the primary concern for participants.
Overall, markets remain anchored by supply disruption across both energy and industrial inputs, with limited visibility on resolution timelines suggesting continued volatility and elevated pricing across the commodity complex.
