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11 May 2026

Prices at 16h30 BST
API2 (May): $109.50/mt
API4 (May): $115.50/mt
Brent Crude: $103.80/bll up 2.48%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $111.50/mt down 0.45%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,945/mt up 2.73%
South Africa 40-42% Chrome Concentrate: $310/mt CIF China down $7/mt

Global commodity markets began the week navigating a fragile balance between geopolitical uncertainty and tightening physical fundamentals. Energy markets remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, while industrial metals continued to draw support from resilient demand and constrained supply conditions. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, broader risk appetite across metals markets remained comparatively firm.

Coal
There was significant strength across the energy complex today, with oil and gas prices opening materially firmer before extending gains through the afternoon, providing support to coal markets as well. Reports over the weekend and into today indicating that no agreement had yet been reached on the proposed US-Iran peace framework reinforced concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could persist for longer than previously expected. By the close, front-month Brent crude and TTF gas contracts were up approximately 3.5% and 5.5% respectively
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Brent Crude
Brent crude futures rose back above $103/bl after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a US-backed peace proposal, reinforcing concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz may persist.
Shipping flows through the waterway remain heavily constrained, continuing to impact global crude, LNG and refined product markets. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the market is losing close to 100 million barrels of supply per week, while security concerns intensified following fresh drone incidents near Qatar and interceptions in the UAE and Kuwait.
Although some cargoes from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have resumed limited transit, overall flows remain well below pre-conflict levels. Morgan Stanley warned that prolonged disruptions could push Brent crude toward $150/bl later this summer.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange moved higher before easing later in the session, with the most-traded September contract closing up 0.73% at 822.5 yuan/mt.
Global iron ore shipments fell sharply last week, down around 20% week-on-week due largely to weather disruptions in Australia and Brazil. At the same time, steel mill operating rates remain elevated, supporting underlying demand for iron ore.
Spot market activity remained cautious, however, with mills continuing to resist higher prices and focusing mainly on rigid restocking demand. Market participants expect prices to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term.

Copper
Copper prices extended their rally, with three-month LME copper rising 1.3% to $13,573/mt, marking a sixth consecutive daily gain and the strongest level in more than three months.
The market continues to be supported by tightening supply conditions, low inventories and resilient structural demand linked to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and data centre expansion.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, copper has remained comparatively resilient, with traders increasingly focused on long-term supply-demand fundamentals rather than short-term geopolitical headlines.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices remained broadly stable, although market sentiment weakened further as downstream demand remained subdued.
Spot prices at Tianjin port were largely unchanged, while CIF transaction prices for South African 40–42% fines eased to $310/mt. Elevated port inventories and limited post-holiday buying activity continued to pressure traders.
Market participants remain cautious, with procurement activity focused mainly on immediate operational requirements and overall trading activity remaining subdued.

Commodity markets continue to navigate a complex environment shaped by geopolitical instability, constrained logistics and tightening physical balances across several key raw materials. While energy markets remain dominated by developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, industrial metals continue to derive support from structurally firm demand and increasingly constrained supply conditions. Market volatility is expected to remain elevated as participants assess both geopolitical developments and the sustainability of current physical market tightness.

London Commodity News

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20th April 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $102.00/mt
API4 (April): $104.50/mt
Brent Crude: $95.40/bbl, up 5.55%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $107.00/mt, down 0.23%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,290/mt, down 0.43%
Chrome Concentrate South Africa 40%/42%: $317/mt CIF China

Markets opened the week on a more cautious footing, as renewed tensions in the Middle East reversed last week’s optimism and reintroduced volatility across the energy and metals complex.

Coal
Energy markets saw renewed volatility, with oil and gas recovering most of Friday’s losses after reports that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again over the weekend. Ongoing uncertainty around the progress and viability of negotiations between the United States and Israel provided further support to oil, with front-month Brent crude rising by over 5% by the close.
European gas prices were more subdued, easing through the session but still ending around 2.5% higher. Coal prices firmed early in the day alongside the broader energy complex, before weakening into the close, with all indices finishing slightly lower and Newcastle (NEWC) posting the largest declines.

Brent Crude
Oil prices moved higher, with Brent rising above $95/bbl, as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated over the weekend. The seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel by the U.S., alongside renewed hostilities in the Gulf of Oman, has undermined confidence in the previously announced ceasefire and raised fresh concerns over the security of supply routes.
Iran’s decision to again restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz—having only recently declared it fully open—has reintroduced a significant risk premium into the market. With negotiations now uncertain and threats of further escalation from both sides, traders are increasingly pricing in the potential for prolonged disruption to oil flows.
While discussions are still expected to take place in the coming days, sentiment has shifted decisively. The market now reflects a more cautious outlook, with volatility likely to persist as participants assess the credibility of diplomatic efforts and the risk to global supply chains.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices edged higher in early trading, supported by firm demand and relatively tight inventories. Strong steel production has limited inventory build-up, providing a supportive backdrop for prices in the near term.
Despite this, the market remains sensitive to broader macro developments, with volatility expected to persist. While underlying fundamentals remain constructive, any shift in economic sentiment or demand conditions could quickly influence price direction.

Copper
Copper prices were mixed, with gains in Shanghai supported by resilient Chinese demand, while London prices eased slightly. Continued inventory drawdowns and firm import premiums indicate solid underlying consumption in China, providing support to the market.
However, copper remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. The fragile ceasefire and uncertainty around renewed negotiations continue to weigh on sentiment, balancing otherwise supportive demand fundamentals.

Chrome
The chrome ore market remains subdued, with weak demand and limited transaction activity. Elevated port inventories—particularly for fines—continue to pressure prices, while ferrochrome producers remain cautious and largely absent from the market.
Although cost-side support persists through higher fuel and freight prices, this has not translated into stronger demand. The market is expected to remain soft in the near term, with a slight downward bias.

Sulphur
The ongoing disruption in the Middle East continues to tighten global sulphur supply, with significant implications for both copper and nickel production. With the region accounting for a substantial share of global sulphur output, restrictions on flows through the Strait of Hormuz have driven prices sharply higher.
Sulphuric acid, a critical input in copper leaching and nickel processing, is now in short supply. Export restrictions from key producers, including China and Turkey, are further exacerbating the squeeze. This has led to rising production costs across the metals complex, particularly in regions heavily reliant on imported sulphur.
While the full impact on output will take time to materialise, the immediate effect is already evident in higher cost structures and tightening margins. The extent of disruption will depend heavily on the duration of supply constraints and the pace at which trade flows normalise.

The re-escalation of tensions has once again highlighted the fragility of current market conditions. Energy remains the primary driver, with knock-on effects across bulk and base metals through both cost and supply channels. Until there is greater clarity on geopolitical developments and trade flows, markets are likely to remain volatile and highly reactive to headlines.

London Commodity News

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17th April 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $102.50/mt
API4 (April): $104.90/mt
Brent Crude: $88.06/bbl, down 11.50%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.05/mt, down 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,338/mt, up 0.52%
Chrome Concentrate South Africa 40%/42%: $317/mt CIF China

Markets moved decisively into a risk-on posture to close the week, driven by meaningful progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East. The reopening of key energy routes has eased supply concerns, triggering sharp moves across the energy complex and providing broader support to commodities.

Coal
Following confirmation from Iranian authorities that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping during the ceasefire, energy prices moved sharply lower. Front-month Brent crude and European gas declined by approximately 10% and 8% respectively, as expectations of more constructive negotiations between the parties improved market sentiment.
Coal prices also softened in response to the broader weakness across the energy complex, although declines were more moderate and less pronounced than those seen in oil and gas.

Brent Crude
Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping below $90/bbl as optimism grew around a potential end to the conflict. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the war could conclude “pretty soon,” alongside indications of progress in negotiations, triggered a significant unwind of the geopolitical risk premium.
A key development was Iran’s confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for commercial shipping during the ceasefire period, albeit under controlled transit routes. While a U.S. naval blockade remains in place targeting Iranian flows, the partial normalisation of shipping has improved confidence in global supply chains. Markets reacted swiftly, with Brent falling over 10% intraday as traders priced in a more stable near-term outlook.
Despite the sharp correction, some uncertainty remains around the durability of the ceasefire and the conditions required to maintain open transit. While sentiment has improved materially, oil is likely to remain sensitive to further geopolitical developments in the near term.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices were broadly stable, with futures trading largely unchanged as the market balanced supply-side risks against softer demand signals. Tightening port inventories and sustained high levels of hot metal production continue to provide support, while concerns over diesel availability—linked to disruptions in Australia—have added to supply-side uncertainty.
However, demand-side pressures are beginning to emerge. Environmental restrictions in key Chinese steelmaking regions, particularly Hebei, have raised concerns over potential production cuts, limiting upside momentum. As a result, the market remains finely balanced, with prices expected to trade within a narrow range in the short term.

Copper
Copper prices moved higher, extending their recent rally and heading for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. The market has been supported by renewed buying from Chinese fabricators, who have taken advantage of earlier price softness, alongside improving sentiment linked to easing geopolitical tensions.
Structural drivers remain firmly intact, with demand underpinned by electrification, grid expansion, and technology-related growth. At the same time, supply constraints—stemming from mining disruptions and limited project development—continue to provide a supportive backdrop.
With inflation concerns easing and expectations for tighter monetary policy moderating, copper remains well positioned, although still sensitive to broader macro developments.

Chrome
The chrome ore market remained subdued, with stable pricing masking weak underlying demand. Spot activity was limited, with high port inventories continuing to weigh on sentiment, particularly for South African and Zimbabwean fines. Downstream ferrochrome producers remained cautious, with minimal purchasing interest and a preference to negotiate lower prices.
Some support persists on the cost side, with firm overseas offers and rising fuel and freight costs underpinning CIF prices. However, the absence of strong demand and limited confidence among buyers continues to cap upside potential. In the near term, the market is expected to remain under pressure, with a slight downward bias.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has provided a significant shift in market sentiment, easing immediate supply fears and driving a repricing across energy markets. While this has supported a broader recovery in risk appetite, underlying uncertainties remain. Markets are likely to stay reactive to geopolitical developments, with stability dependent on the durability of current agreements and progress toward a lasting resolution.

London Commodity News

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9th March 2026

*Prices at 17h30 GMT*

*Thermal Coal:* _March API2 $132.90/mt & API4 $117.00/mt_

*Brent Crude:* _$99.35/bll – Up 7.19%_

*SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe:* _$104.15/mt – Up 0.97%_

*LME 3-Month Copper:* _$12,926/mt  – Up 0.47%_

*Granular Sulphur CFR China* _$513.50/mt_

*Chrome Ore South Africa 40%-42% CIF China* _$307.50/mt_

_Commodity markets remained highly volatile as the intensifying conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt energy flows and influence sentiment across the broader commodities complex. Energy markets led the move, while industrial metals responded to a mix of macroeconomic pressure, supply dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty._

*Coal*
Following the weekend escalation in the US–Iran conflict, energy markets experienced significant volatility today. Brent crude surged by as much as 30% intraday while European gas prices rose around 25% before both retraced part of those gains as the session progressed. By the close, front-month Brent crude and short-dated European gas contracts remained higher, finishing approximately 7.5% and 5% up respectively. Coal swaps also found support through the afternoon, with prices across the indices ending roughly $7 higher at points along the curve.

*Brent Crude*

Oil prices recorded their largest single-day gain in six years as the conflict in the Middle East continued to escalate. Brent crude briefly surged to around $119.50 per barrel before settling closer to $101, still roughly 9% higher on the day. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate followed a similar pattern, trading above $119 intraday before easing back toward the $100 level.

The rally has been driven by growing disruption to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. Roughly 15 million barrels per day — around 20% of global oil supply — normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but tanker movements have been severely curtailed due to security concerns and the risk of missile and drone attacks.

Several Gulf producers have begun reducing output as export bottlenecks cause domestic storage facilities to fill. Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have all reportedly curtailed production, while attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across the region have further heightened supply concerns. Additional geopolitical developments, including the appointment of a new Iranian supreme leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have reinforced perceptions that the conflict could become prolonged.

Despite sharply higher prices, the Group of Seven countries have so far refrained from releasing strategic oil reserves. Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of crude, primarily to China, and any disruption to these flows could further tighten global supply. The rapid escalation in energy prices has also unsettled financial markets, raising concerns about inflation and its potential impact on economic growth.

*Iron Ore*

Iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-active Dalian contract (I2605) closing 2.28% higher at 784.5 yuan per tonne. Spot prices also increased by 5–15 yuan compared with the previous session. Trading activity remained moderate, with traders showing steady offering sentiment while steel mills continued to purchase primarily to meet immediate requirements.

Both supply and demand conditions weakened during the week. Global iron ore shipments fell sharply to 27.84 million tonnes, down more than 20% week-on-week, largely due to cyclone-related disruptions affecting shipments from Australia and Brazil. Exports from other producing regions, including South Africa and India, also declined. Meanwhile, China’s iron ore arrivals dropped to 23.07 million tonnes, down approximately 5% from the previous week.

On the demand side, the pace of blast furnace restarts has been relatively slow, limiting immediate consumption growth. Nevertheless, structural tightness in certain ore grades and rising freight costs continue to provide underlying price support. As a result, iron ore prices are expected to remain relatively firm but fluctuate within a range in the near term.

*Copper*

Copper prices softened as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical risks and rising energy prices. Oil moving above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 has intensified concerns that higher energy costs could weigh on global economic growth while simultaneously fuelling inflation.

The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has now entered its second week with no signs of de-escalation, adding to risk aversion in financial markets. The strengthening US dollar — supported by expectations that inflationary pressures may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts — also weighed on copper prices.

In China, February inflation reached a three-year high, partly driven by Lunar New Year spending. Despite the broader macro pressures, physical copper markets have shown some resilience. Falling prices have encouraged downstream consumers to purchase on dips, lifting spot activity and supporting physical demand. At the same time, continued arrivals of domestic and previously contracted imported material have kept supply relatively ample, limiting the scope for a sharp tightening in spot premiums.

*Sulphur*

The conflict has also exposed a critical vulnerability in the global copper supply chain: sulphur supply. The Central African Copperbelt — spanning the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia — imports roughly 2 million tonnes of sulphur annually, more than 90% of which originates from the Middle East.

Sulphur is converted into sulphuric acid, an essential reagent used to leach copper from oxide ores, the dominant processing method in the region. The DRC alone imported approximately 1.3–1.4 million tonnes of sulphur last year, while oxide operations typically require between 3.5 and 4.5 tonnes of acid per tonne of copper produced. Acid costs can represent around 16% of operating expenses for such operations.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have already begun to impact the market. CIF sulphur prices into Southern Africa have risen to around $520 per tonne, while delivered costs into Kolwezi are approaching $900 per tonne. This implies sulphuric acid costs nearing $300 per tonne, significantly above typical levels.

Should disruptions persist, acid shortages could constrain copper production across the Copperbelt. The situation highlights a broader structural challenge for African mining operations, which remain heavily dependent on imported processing chemicals. Longer term, the industry may need to consider developing local sulphuric acid capacity or diversifying supply chains to reduce exposure to geopolitical chokepoints.

*Chrome*

The chrome ore market remained firm, with spot quotations edging higher. Strong overseas pricing supported market confidence and encouraged traders to maintain firm offers. As ferrochrome producers increased production and raw material consumption improved, enquiries and restocking activity picked up, leading to a gradual recovery in demand.

Lower-priced cargoes have largely been absorbed by the market, leaving spot supply — particularly for mainstream lumpy ore — relatively tight. Traders have consequently shown reluctance to sell at lower levels.

On the supply side, overseas mine quotations remain firm. The restart of ferrochrome production in South Africa has increased demand for raw ore, while export reviews in Zimbabwe have reduced the availability of fines. Rising freight rates from Turkey, linked to geopolitical tensions, have further tightened shipments and increased landed costs.

_In summary, the escalating Middle East conflict continues to dominate commodity markets, driving extreme volatility in energy prices and creating knock-on effects across metals and raw materials. While industrial commodities remain supported by underlying supply-demand dynamics, the near-term direction of markets will largely depend on developments in the energy sector and the stability of key global trade routes._

London Commodity News

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24th February 2026

Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $106.75/mt & API4 $99.00/mt
Brent Crude: $70.90/bll – Down 0.30%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $98.60/mt – No Change
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,183/mt – Up 2.41%
South Africa 40-42% Chrome Concentrate CIF China: $298/mt – No Change
South Africa Managnese Ore CIF Tianjin 42%Mn-12%Fe: $4.97/dmtu – Up 0.14%

Commodity markets reflected a combination of geopolitical risk, uneven demand recovery and cost pressures, resulting in mixed performance across the energy and bulk materials complex.

Coal
Prices across coal indices declined sharply, led by API2, where prompt contracts fell by nearly $4. European gas also weakened, with the front-month contract dropping more than 4%, while significantly lower offers in the physical DES ARA market added further pressure to API2 swaps. In the Pacific, softer offers in the physical Newcastle market contributed to additional downside across NEWC swaps.

Brent Crude
Oil markets remained supported as new global trade risks emerged following the implementation of a 10% U.S. tariff, while ongoing Middle East tensions continued to sustain a geopolitical risk premium. Brent traded above $70 per barrel, briefly approaching $72 after a steady rally since late February. Analysts note that concerns over potential supply disruptions — particularly related to Iran — are offsetting expectations of a sizeable surplus later this year. Estimates suggest that a full removal of Iranian exports could lift Brent averages toward the low $70s in the second quarter, with significantly higher levels possible should disruptions persist.
During afternoon trading, Brent edged lower to around $70.85 as markets positioned ahead of a third round of U.S.–Iran negotiations. Elevated time spreads underline the strength of the risk premium, with prompt barrels trading at a marked premium to deferred deliveries. While geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant driver, softer macro signals and surplus projections continue to cap upside momentum.

Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore futures continued to trade at lower levels, with the I2605 contract settling at 740.5 yuan per tonne, down 1.79%, while spot prices declined by 5–8 yuan per tonne amid subdued trading activity. Limited trader participation and cautious steel mill procurement kept market sentiment weak.
Supply conditions remained relatively loose. Global shipments rose sharply week on week to 32.29 million tonnes, driven mainly by stronger Australian volumes, while China arrivals increased to 27.75 million tonnes. Demand, however, lagged, with blast furnace shutdowns following a holiday-period incident and incomplete downstream production resumption constraining purchasing appetite. Market attention is now focused on the pace of production recovery and policy signals from the upcoming Two Sessions, with prices expected to remain rangebound at lower levels.

Copper
Copper prices advanced to their highest level in over a week on Tuesday, supported by improved sentiment and firmer demand in China as markets reopened following the Lunar New Year holiday. Three-month LME copper rose 2.2% to $13,155 per tonne, briefly touching $13,196, its strongest level since 12 February.

Despite Monday’s modest decline, LME copper remains up around 22% over the past three months, though still below the late-January record high of $14,527.50. Market sentiment was aided by expectations that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn emergency tariffs could be marginally supportive for China, contributing to gains in Chinese equities.

Physical demand indicators also strengthened, with the Yangshan import premium rising 60% to $53 per tonne. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-active copper contract gained 0.8% to 101,510 yuan per tonne on the first trading day after the holiday. However, rising inventories continue to temper momentum, with LME warehouse stocks increasing to 243,175 tonnes, the highest since March 2025 and up more than 70% year to date.

Chrome Ore
The chrome ore market remained stable, with both futures and spot offers holding near elevated levels and only minor adjustments observed. Trading activity was muted in the immediate post-holiday period, with limited transactions reported. South African 40–42% chrome concentrate offers remained steady at $297 per tonne, while market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of steel tender price guidance.

Manganese Ore
Manganese ore continued to provide firm cost support across the alloy chain, underpinned by resilient overseas offer levels and relatively low domestic port inventories. However, regional power cost divergence is increasingly shaping competitiveness among alloy producers. Northern regions retain cost advantages due to lower electricity tariffs, whereas southern areas face upward pressure following pricing reforms and expected increases in power costs. With both ore supply discipline and rising electricity expenses in play, manganese prices are expected to remain well supported in the near term.

Across commodities, geopolitical risk and structural cost dynamics continue to provide underlying support, even as demand recovery remains uneven. Near-term price direction will depend on developments in energy geopolitics, downstream industrial activity and evolving policy signals across key producing regions.

London Commodity News

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2nd February 2026

Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $101.50/mt, January API4 $94.00/mt
Brent Crude: $66.31/bll – Down 4.36%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $102.80/mt – _Up 0.24%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,920.50/mt – Down 1.97%
SMM Chrome Conc, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $298.50/mt CIF China (In Bulk)
LME 3-Month Lead $1,967/mt Down 2.09%

_Markets started the week on the back foot as risk premiums unwound across energy and metals, with easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar triggering sharp corrections after January’s rally.

Coal
Energy markets remained highly volatile, with European gas prices tumbling nearly 14% by the close following last week’s sharp rallies, while front-month Brent crude fell close to 5%. A modest easing in U.S.–Iran tensions and more normalised temperatures across large parts of the U.S. helped alleviate concerns around LNG supply, driving the move lower. Coal prices softened in response, though the pullback was notably more muted compared with the broader energy complex.

Brent Crude
Oil prices suffered their steepest one-day fall in over six months, with Brent sliding more than 4.5% to around $66/bbl as geopolitical fears eased. Comments from U.S. President Trump confirming talks with Iran, alongside signals from Tehran that negotiations are possible, reduced concerns over imminent supply disruptions in the Middle East and prompted a rapid unwinding of January’s risk premium. The sell-off was compounded by a broader correction across commodities and a firmer U.S. dollar. Fundamentally, supply conditions remain comfortable. OPEC+ reiterated its plan to keep output unchanged in March, while U.S. production continues to recover from winter-related disruptions and Kazakhstan edges closer to restarting output at Tengiz. Although speculative positioning had turned increasingly bullish in recent weeks, the shift in the geopolitical narrative has left prices vulnerable to further downside should tensions continue to ease.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened, with the benchmark I2605 contract closing down 1.26% at 783 yuan/mt and spot prices falling 5–8 yuan/mt. Trading activity remained subdued as steel mills focused strictly on meeting immediate production needs, while trader participation thinned.
With the pre-holiday restocking cycle nearing completion, buying support is fading just as port inventories remain elevated. At the same time, steel mills face margin pressure and environmental constraints, limiting appetite to lift output. These factors point to a period of softer demand, leaving iron ore prices vulnerable to continued volatility and weakness in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper extended its pullback for a second session as risk appetite deteriorated and demand slowed ahead of China’s Lunar New Year. The SHFE copper contract slumped more than 7%, while LME three-month copper fell nearly 3%, following last week’s record highs driven by speculative buying.
The retreat reflects a broader metals sell-off after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair strengthened the dollar and prompted profit-taking. With Chinese demand seasonally softening and speculative positions being unwound, copper is likely to remain volatile despite still-tight longer-term supply fundamentals.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices held firm, with spot offers at Tianjin Port largely unchanged and overseas futures continuing to edge higher. Winter stockpiling is nearing its end, tempering inquiry activity, but price sentiment remains supported by higher offshore offers and expectations of tighter supply post-holiday. Recent approval of lower electricity tariffs for South African ferrochrome producers may stimulate output, potentially tightening future chrome ore availability. Meanwhile, constrained shipments from Zimbabwe during the rainy season continue to limit supply, underpinning expectations of a stable-to-firm market in the near term.

Lead
Lead prices remained under pressure amid persistent inventory buildup of domestic ingots. As the Chinese New Year approaches, both smelters and battery producers are gradually entering holiday mode, reducing market activity on both the supply and demand sides.
Sentiment was further weighed down by SHFE’s announcement that secondary lead will be introduced as an alternative delivery brand for futures, increasing deliverable supply and dampening near-term price expectations.

Overall, the session marked a clear shift from risk-on to risk-off, with easing geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand factors driving sharp corrections. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets reassess fundamentals heading into the holiday period.

London Commodity News

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12th January 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.00/mt, January API4 $88.50/mt
Brent Crude: $63.63/bll – Up 0.47%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $108.20/mt – Down 0.46%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,203/mt – Up 1.46%
Chrome Ore, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $269.00/mt CIF China
Manganese Ore, South African (Mn42%Fe12%) $4.85/dmtu CIF North China
LME 3-Month Lead $2,059/mt – Up 0.46%

Markets opened the week with a cautious tone as investors weighed easing geopolitical fears against firm demand signals across key industrial and energy markets. While oil gave back some of last week’s gains, metals continued to find support from Chinese policy expectations and tightening physical fundamentals.

Coal
Coal swaps saw a quieter session, with API2 ending largely unchanged after finding some modest support earlier in the day. European gas prices moved higher and remain volatile, providing a contrasting backdrop to the more stable coal market.
Newcastle (NEWC) swaps edged slightly firmer, although the physical Newcastle market remained steady. API4 swaps also held their recent gains, ending the session broadly unchanged.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower as Iran signalled that domestic unrest was “under total control,” easing immediate fears of supply disruption after a volatile weekend. This tempered some of the risk premium that had driven a strong rally late last week, when Brent and WTI rose more than 3%. At the same time, attention shifted to Venezuela, where preparations are under way to resume exports following political change, with up to 50 million barrels expected to be transferred to the United States. Despite this, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains supportive. U.S. officials are considering further options on Iran, while Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure keep the risk of tighter sanctions alive. Goldman Sachs still expects oil prices to drift lower through 2026 on rising supply and swelling OECD inventories, but analysts at Capital Economics warn that any serious disruption to Iranian exports could trigger a sharp, albeit temporary, $15–$20 per barrel spike.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures firmed modestly, with the most-traded Dalian contract closing up 0.92% at CNY822.5/mt , while spot prices rose slightly. Trading activity remained moderate, with steel mills largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, even as traders offered material at firmer levels. Supply dynamics remain mixed. Global shipments fell sharply week-on-week, but arrivals at China’s main ports increased, keeping inventories elevated. Looking ahead, the start of pre-Lunar New Year restocking should provide downside support, though ample port stocks are likely to cap any sharp upside, leaving prices oscillating near current high levels.

Copper (LME)
Copper extended its rebound, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing optimism around Chinese demand. Shanghai copper jumped nearly 3% and LME three-month copper climbed above $13,150 per tonne, remaining close to last week’s record highs after Beijing signalled fresh fiscal and financial measures to stimulate domestic consumption. Additional support came from supply-side concerns, including lower output at Chile’s Codelco, and continued merger speculation following Rio Tinto’s talks with Glencore. Broader base metals also benefited from the softer dollar, with nickel and tin posting strong gains on supply and demand concerns.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices continued to rise as higher futures levels and stronger South African concentrate prices lifted ferrochrome production costs. Improved profitability at stainless steel mills and higher January production schedules provided a solid base for demand, reinforcing price support across major origins. Trading activity was firm as winter stockpiling gathered pace and rising futures offers boosted sentiment. Policy changes in Zimbabwe have tightened supply, particularly for concentrates, while lump ore remained well supported by limited availability. Futures prices moved higher again, underlining a positive short-term market bias.

Manganese
Manganese ore markets remained well supported by rising overseas offers, with major miners lifting February prices to China. Stronger international pricing fed through to higher domestic spot values, while SiMn futures strength improved sentiment and encouraged buying interest from alloy producers. However, the picture remains uneven. While northern Chinese demand was steady, southern buyers stayed cautious, leading to rising inventories at Qinzhou Port as arrivals outpaced consumption. Prices are likely to remain firm in the near term, but persistent weakness in southern demand and growing port stocks could eventually trigger a corrective pullback.

Lead
Some smelters kept scrap battery purchase prices steady or slightly higher to secure feedstock, while suppliers became more willing to sell after a period of reluctance. Large smelters in central and eastern China reported relatively comfortable arrivals, easing immediate raw-material concerns. However, downstream battery demand remains weak as end-market sales continue to struggle, pushing operating rates lower and limiting lead ingot procurement. As a result, finished lead inventories are building at both primary and secondary smelters, which is likely to cap any near-term price recovery and raises the risk of further pressure after the next delivery cycle.

Overall, commodity markets continue to be driven by a blend of geopolitical risk, Chinese stimulus expectations and tightening supply in key raw materials. While volatility remains elevated, underlying fundamentals across metals and energy suggest prices will stay supported in the near term.

London Commodity News

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5th January 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 – $97.50/mt, January API4 – $86.50/mt
Brent Crude: $61.43/bll – Up 1.12%
Iron Ore: $105.75/mt – Down 0.24%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,983/mt – Up 4.09%
Chrome Ore-South African 40%/42% CIF China: $264/mt
LME 3-Month Lead: $2019.50/mt Up 0.65%

Commodities traded with a firm tone as geopolitical developments, restocking activity, and supply disruptions shaped near-term sentiment.

Coal
Longer-dated contracts came under further moderate selling pressure today, driving additional weakness at the back end of the curve. European gas prices remained volatile and fell by more than 4%, while API2 was relatively stable by comparison. Oil prices, initially steady following weekend news of US intervention in Venezuela, finished the session around 1.5% higher. The physical Newcastle market also saw more aggressive offers than last week.

Brent Crude
Brent crude edged higher after trading lower for much of the session, as markets assessed the near-term supply outlook following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, years of underinvestment and the heavy, sour quality of its crude limit its export impact, with current output below 1 mbpd—less than 1% of global supply. OPEC+ reiterated its commitment to keep output unchanged in Q1, tempering immediate supply concerns. However, caution persists amid the risk of broader US pressure on other producers, including Iran, which could tighten supply later in the year. Some reports also suggest Washington may encourage US firms to support a revival of Venezuela’s oil sector.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures rose on the first trading day of the year, supported by pre-Lunar New Year restocking and tight domestic supply. The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 797 yuan/t, while Singapore prices also edged higher. Environmental restrictions have constrained mine output, and steel inventories continue to decline. However, global shipments increased slightly last week, and port inventories are expected to rebuild, limiting upside. With blast furnace restarts underway, iron ore prices are likely to remain volatile but supported in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper surged toward record highs as supply concerns intensified following strike action at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in Chile and sharply lower exchange inventories. Stocks on the London Metal Exchange have fallen more than 50% since August, with much of the metal flowing to the US amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Analysts at UBS forecast a sizeable copper deficit from 2026, reinforcing the bullish supply narrative despite elevated prices.

Chrome
Chrome ore market activity picked up after the holiday, supported by strong ferrochrome production schedules and restocking interest. Mainstream lump ore remains tight, with traders holding prices firm. South African fine ore participants are awaiting fresh overseas offers, with sentiment cautiously optimistic. In the absence of new futures pricing, the market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

Lead
Lead inventories sent mixed signals, with LME stocks falling while SHFE inventories rose week on week. With downstream activity muted over the holiday and primary smelters resuming production, prices are expected to refocus on fundamentals. Despite a near-term supply–demand mismatch, low social inventories and ongoing shortages of lead concentrates should provide downside support.

Overall, commodity markets remain sensitive to supply-side risks and policy signals, suggesting continued volatility as fundamentals reassert themselves in early 2026.

London Commodity News

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19th December 2025


Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.33/bll – Up 0.84%
Iron Ore: $107.15/mt – Down 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,876.50/mt – Up 0.88%
LME 3-month lead: $1,987/mt – Up 1.22%
South African Manganese Ore 42%Mn12%Fe CIF China: $4.66/mtu
South African Chrome Ore 40-42%Cr CIF China: $264/mt

Markets closed the session with a cautious but orderly tone, as participants balanced near-term supply risks against softer demand signals and a growing focus on inventories and positioning into year-end. Price action was largely driven by fundamentals rather than sentiment shifts.

Coal
Coal swap price action was fairly subdued today, despite continued support in European gas markets, where front-end contracts rose more than 2% from relatively low levels. The physical Newcastle market saw more aggressive offers, though NEWC swaps still ended the session largely unchanged.

Brent Crude
Oil futures finished higher as the market weighed Venezuelan supply risks against the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine resolution and expectations of significant oversupply in 2026. While potential disruptions to Venezuelan exports offer some support, analysts continue to view these risks as modest relative to the scale of surplus likely to emerge if Russian supply normalises. The more pressing concern remains inventories: crude held at sea has risen to around 1.3 billion barrels, the highest level since April 2020, with slow-moving tankers signalling difficulty in clearing excess supply. With OPEC+ and non-OPEC output still rising, inventory dynamics are expected to be the dominant driver of prices in the months ahead.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher, with the I2605 contract closing at RMB 780, up 0.52%. Despite the uptick, fundamentals remain soft. Maintenance at northern Chinese steel mills reduced hot metal output and port pick-up volumes, leading to continued inventory accumulation at ports. Safety inspections in some regions tightened spot availability, offering limited price support, but steel mills maintained disciplined, demand-led restocking under strict cost controls. Overall trading activity remained subdued, and prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term.

Copper (LME)
Copper posted modest gains and was on track for a weekly rise, supported by renewed focus on structural supply constraints. Goldman Sachs reiterated its long-term bullish view, citing limited mine expansion and robust demand growth, while near-term gains were capped by a firmer U.S. dollar. Market participants continue to view copper as fundamentally well supported, though some caution that prices near $12,000 may struggle to extend further without stronger demand confirmation.

*Manganese&
The manganese ore market remained firm, underpinned by rising overseas offers for January 2026 shipments and strong cost support. Supply conditions were tight for several mainstream ore types, with traders holding prices firm. Demand showed regional divergence: northern SiMn producers maintained relatively active purchasing on expectations of production restarts, while southern producers remained in off-season mode, buying strictly on demand. Port inventories were mixed, with Tianjin balanced and Qinzhou elevated. Overall, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with downstream alloy demand the key variable to monitor.

Lead
Lead supply increased slightly as some primary smelters resumed operations, but falling prices encouraged downstream buyers to purchase on dips. Year-end cash-flow needs prompted active selling, reducing smelter inventories. Transport restrictions in parts of China delayed deliveries, which may further tighten visible inventories once lifted. In the secondary market, lower prices reduced selling appetite, narrowing discounts to near parity. Spot market activity remained light, with most demand covered via long-term contracts.

Chrome
Chrome ore trading activity improved as earlier low-priced material was largely cleared. Traders showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, while ferrochrome producers gradually returned to the market, easing counteroffer pressure. Stable overseas mine quotations, including flat pricing for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt, helped offset weaker steel tender prices and supported confidence. Phased restocking ahead of future demand led to more concentrated transactions. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with attention on upcoming steel mill bidding outcomes.

Overall, markets remain finely balanced between surplus-driven pressure and pockets of structural support. With inventories, restocking behaviour, and cost discipline dominating decision-making, price action is likely to stay measured and rangebound as the year draws to a close.

London Commodity News

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15th December 2025


Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.00/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.26/bll – Down 1.41%
Iron Ore: $106.00/mt – Up 0.14%
LME 3-month copper: $11,682/mt – Up 1.42%
LME 3-month lead: $1,947.50/mt – Down 01.09%
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%): $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% min): $225/mt CIF China
SA Manganese Ore (42%Mn12%Fe): $4.67/mtu CIF South China
SA Manganese Ore (38%Mn5%Fe): $4.55/mtu CIF South China

Commodity markets opened the week under continued pressure, with oversupply concerns weighing on energy and bulk commodities, while base metals were influenced by positioning activity and near-term technical factors rather than a clear improvement in underlying demand.

Coal
Coal prices weakened again today, led by declines in API2 as a pullback in European gas prices weighed on sentiment. After last week’s rally, front-end European gas contracts fell nearly 2.5%, adding further pressure to API2. The physical Newcastle market remained steady, with NEWC and API4 swaps proving relatively more resilient than API2.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower today, extending last week’s sharp declines as concerns over excess supply and subdued demand continued to dominate sentiment. Both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week, reflecting growing expectations that global output is rising faster than consumption. Analysts warn that the market is heading into 2026 with a surplus, as increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers coincides with weak demand growth, particularly in China and Europe. These conditions have limited the durability of price rebounds, even amid periodic geopolitical tensions. Additional pressure has come from optimism that diplomatic efforts could eventually end the war in Ukraine, potentially allowing more Russian crude back into global markets should sanctions be eased.

Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in more than five months, weighed down by concerns over China’s plan to introduce a steel export licensing system from 2026. The move, aimed at curbing surging steel exports amid rising global protectionism, has cast a shadow over demand expectations for iron ore. China’s crude steel output declined 3% month-on-month in November, marking a sixth consecutive monthly fall as weak margins and a prolonged property downturn dampened domestic demand. That said, downside may be limited, with analysts noting that mills are likely to restock ahead of the Lunar New Year in February to maintain operations.

Copper (LME)
Copper prices firmed as traders rolled positions ahead of a contract expiry this week, temporarily offsetting weak Chinese data and renewed concerns around the property sector. The metal hit a record high of $11,952 on Friday on supply-tightness fears before retreating amid broader risk-off sentiment. Market participants expect heightened volatility into year-end and early 2026. Short positions on the LME were cut or rolled ahead of Wednesday’s settlement, while a sizeable portion of exchange stocks was earmarked for delivery. Meanwhile, U.S. Comex copper inventories continued to rise, supported by higher domestic prices. Refined copper remains excluded from U.S. import tariffs introduced in August, though it is still under review.

Lead
LME lead prices weakened today after trading in a narrow range earlier in the session. Some secondary smelters in northern China have increased scrap battery purchases ahead of potential winter-related logistical disruptions. However, the expected resumption of production at primary smelters and the approach of SHFE delivery are likely to lift inventories. In the near term, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure, with raw material costs providing some support but rising inventories posing a downside risk.

Chrome
The chrome ore market began the week on a firmer footing, with improved trading sentiment and renewed attempts to lift prices after values appeared to bottom out. Traders showed greater willingness to hold offers firm as high-priced futures cargoes continued to arrive at ports. Purchasing activity from ferrochrome producers picked up, supporting market liquidity, while flat futures pricing reinforced confidence. However, high port inventories and the prospect of lower January stainless steel tender prices may cap upside. Overseas futures for 40–42% South African concentrate remained steady at $263/mt, supporting prices, and some domestic traders have begun stockpiling for 2026. In the short term, the market is expected to trade steadily.

Manganese
Manganese ore prices remained elevated, with overall cost support holding firm despite selective price declines in some grades. Alloy plants across northern and southern China maintained stable operating rates, underpinning demand.

Looking ahead, market direction is likely to remain cautious as participants balance weak fundamentals against short-term positioning flows and seasonal restocking. Volatility is expected to persist into year-end as traders monitor supply developments, policy signals, and demand indicators across key markets.

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