17th April 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $102.50/mt
API4 (April): $104.90/mt
Brent Crude: $88.06/bbl, down 11.50%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.05/mt, down 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,338/mt, up 0.52%
Chrome Concentrate South Africa 40%/42%: $317/mt CIF China
Markets moved decisively into a risk-on posture to close the week, driven by meaningful progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East. The reopening of key energy routes has eased supply concerns, triggering sharp moves across the energy complex and providing broader support to commodities.
Coal
Following confirmation from Iranian authorities that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping during the ceasefire, energy prices moved sharply lower. Front-month Brent crude and European gas declined by approximately 10% and 8% respectively, as expectations of more constructive negotiations between the parties improved market sentiment.
Coal prices also softened in response to the broader weakness across the energy complex, although declines were more moderate and less pronounced than those seen in oil and gas.
Brent Crude
Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping below $90/bbl as optimism grew around a potential end to the conflict. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the war could conclude “pretty soon,” alongside indications of progress in negotiations, triggered a significant unwind of the geopolitical risk premium.
A key development was Iran’s confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for commercial shipping during the ceasefire period, albeit under controlled transit routes. While a U.S. naval blockade remains in place targeting Iranian flows, the partial normalisation of shipping has improved confidence in global supply chains. Markets reacted swiftly, with Brent falling over 10% intraday as traders priced in a more stable near-term outlook.
Despite the sharp correction, some uncertainty remains around the durability of the ceasefire and the conditions required to maintain open transit. While sentiment has improved materially, oil is likely to remain sensitive to further geopolitical developments in the near term.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices were broadly stable, with futures trading largely unchanged as the market balanced supply-side risks against softer demand signals. Tightening port inventories and sustained high levels of hot metal production continue to provide support, while concerns over diesel availability—linked to disruptions in Australia—have added to supply-side uncertainty.
However, demand-side pressures are beginning to emerge. Environmental restrictions in key Chinese steelmaking regions, particularly Hebei, have raised concerns over potential production cuts, limiting upside momentum. As a result, the market remains finely balanced, with prices expected to trade within a narrow range in the short term.
Copper
Copper prices moved higher, extending their recent rally and heading for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. The market has been supported by renewed buying from Chinese fabricators, who have taken advantage of earlier price softness, alongside improving sentiment linked to easing geopolitical tensions.
Structural drivers remain firmly intact, with demand underpinned by electrification, grid expansion, and technology-related growth. At the same time, supply constraints—stemming from mining disruptions and limited project development—continue to provide a supportive backdrop.
With inflation concerns easing and expectations for tighter monetary policy moderating, copper remains well positioned, although still sensitive to broader macro developments.
Chrome
The chrome ore market remained subdued, with stable pricing masking weak underlying demand. Spot activity was limited, with high port inventories continuing to weigh on sentiment, particularly for South African and Zimbabwean fines. Downstream ferrochrome producers remained cautious, with minimal purchasing interest and a preference to negotiate lower prices.
Some support persists on the cost side, with firm overseas offers and rising fuel and freight costs underpinning CIF prices. However, the absence of strong demand and limited confidence among buyers continues to cap upside potential. In the near term, the market is expected to remain under pressure, with a slight downward bias.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has provided a significant shift in market sentiment, easing immediate supply fears and driving a repricing across energy markets. While this has supported a broader recovery in risk appetite, underlying uncertainties remain. Markets are likely to stay reactive to geopolitical developments, with stability dependent on the durability of current agreements and progress toward a lasting resolution.
