5th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 – $97.50/mt, January API4 – $86.50/mt
Brent Crude: $61.43/bll – Up 1.12%
Iron Ore: $105.75/mt – Down 0.24%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,983/mt – Up 4.09%
Chrome Ore-South African 40%/42% CIF China: $264/mt
LME 3-Month Lead: $2019.50/mt Up 0.65%
Commodities traded with a firm tone as geopolitical developments, restocking activity, and supply disruptions shaped near-term sentiment.
Coal
Longer-dated contracts came under further moderate selling pressure today, driving additional weakness at the back end of the curve. European gas prices remained volatile and fell by more than 4%, while API2 was relatively stable by comparison. Oil prices, initially steady following weekend news of US intervention in Venezuela, finished the session around 1.5% higher. The physical Newcastle market also saw more aggressive offers than last week.
Brent Crude
Brent crude edged higher after trading lower for much of the session, as markets assessed the near-term supply outlook following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, years of underinvestment and the heavy, sour quality of its crude limit its export impact, with current output below 1 mbpd—less than 1% of global supply. OPEC+ reiterated its commitment to keep output unchanged in Q1, tempering immediate supply concerns. However, caution persists amid the risk of broader US pressure on other producers, including Iran, which could tighten supply later in the year. Some reports also suggest Washington may encourage US firms to support a revival of Venezuela’s oil sector.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures rose on the first trading day of the year, supported by pre-Lunar New Year restocking and tight domestic supply. The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 797 yuan/t, while Singapore prices also edged higher. Environmental restrictions have constrained mine output, and steel inventories continue to decline. However, global shipments increased slightly last week, and port inventories are expected to rebuild, limiting upside. With blast furnace restarts underway, iron ore prices are likely to remain volatile but supported in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper surged toward record highs as supply concerns intensified following strike action at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in Chile and sharply lower exchange inventories. Stocks on the London Metal Exchange have fallen more than 50% since August, with much of the metal flowing to the US amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Analysts at UBS forecast a sizeable copper deficit from 2026, reinforcing the bullish supply narrative despite elevated prices.
Chrome
Chrome ore market activity picked up after the holiday, supported by strong ferrochrome production schedules and restocking interest. Mainstream lump ore remains tight, with traders holding prices firm. South African fine ore participants are awaiting fresh overseas offers, with sentiment cautiously optimistic. In the absence of new futures pricing, the market is expected to remain stable in the short term.
Lead
Lead inventories sent mixed signals, with LME stocks falling while SHFE inventories rose week on week. With downstream activity muted over the holiday and primary smelters resuming production, prices are expected to refocus on fundamentals. Despite a near-term supply–demand mismatch, low social inventories and ongoing shortages of lead concentrates should provide downside support.
Overall, commodity markets remain sensitive to supply-side risks and policy signals, suggesting continued volatility as fundamentals reassert themselves in early 2026.
