23rd December 2025
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96/mt API4 $89/mt
Brent Crude: $61.62/bll – Down 0.72%
Iron Ore: $106.95/mt – Down 0.14%
LME 3-month copper: $12,064/mt – Up 1.28%
Markets opened the session with a cautious tone, as participants balanced fresh geopolitical developments against a broader backdrop of uneven demand and ample forward supply. Energy prices softened slightly after recent gains, while metals remained supported by supply-side constraints and positioning flows.
Coal
Price action and volatility were more subdued today, with NEWC swaps showing slight weakness and API2 ending largely unchanged. A similar pattern was seen across the wider energy complex, with both European gas prices and oil finishing the session close to flat.
Brent Crude
Oil prices eased modestly in early Tuesday trade after surging more than 2% in the previous session. Brent slipped to $61.96/bbl and WTI to $57.88/bbl, as markets digested comments from the U.S. indicating it may sell—or retain—Venezuelan crude seized in recent weeks. The move follows Washington’s tightening pressure on Caracas, including restrictions on sanctioned tankers.
Supply risks remain elevated amid renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, particularly around Black Sea export infrastructure. Russian strikes damaged facilities and a vessel in Odesa, while Ukrainian drone attacks hit vessels and piers in Russia’s Krasnodar region, with continued focus on disrupting Russia’s shadow tanker fleet.
Despite these risks, sentiment remains tempered by expectations of ample supply into early 2026. Barclays noted that even a near-term halt to Venezuelan exports would likely leave the market well supplied in H1 2026, though a prolonged disruption could tighten balances later in the year by eroding inventories.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices held near CNY 780/mt, extending a rebound from five-month lows as reduced output from major suppliers offset a muted demand environment. Chinese mills faced restricted feedstock options following bans on certain BHP-origin fines under CMRG rules, while slightly improved steel margins helped lift hot metal production modestly from September lows.
However, broader sentiment remains weak. China’s construction PMI contracted for a fourth consecutive month, and renewed stress in the property sector—highlighted by concerns around Vanke—continued to weigh on demand expectations. In western Liaoning, concentrate prices were largely stable, though trading activity remained thin as mills resisted higher prices amid uncertain outlooks. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile but rangebound in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper traded in record territory today, blasting past the $12,000/mt level as supply disruptions and tariff-driven trade flows sustained the rally. LME prices hovered around $12,025/mt at last look, with year-to-date gains approaching 37%, marking the strongest annual performance since 2009.
The rally has been driven largely by expectations that copper will continue to flow into the U.S., tightening availability elsewhere, rather than by a clear improvement in global demand. Some analysts caution that end-user consumption remains subdued, though strong market sentiment and supply-side constraints continue to underpin prices in the near term.
Overall, markets remain finely balanced between headline-driven supply risks and structurally soft demand signals. With inventories, geopolitical developments, and trade flows dominating price action, near-term volatility is likely to persist as participants remain cautious about the sustainability of recent moves.
