19th December 2025
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.33/bll – Up 0.84%
Iron Ore: $107.15/mt – Down 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,876.50/mt – Up 0.88%
LME 3-month lead: $1,987/mt – Up 1.22%
South African Manganese Ore 42%Mn12%Fe CIF China: $4.66/mtu
South African Chrome Ore 40-42%Cr CIF China: $264/mt
Markets closed the session with a cautious but orderly tone, as participants balanced near-term supply risks against softer demand signals and a growing focus on inventories and positioning into year-end. Price action was largely driven by fundamentals rather than sentiment shifts.
Coal
Coal swap price action was fairly subdued today, despite continued support in European gas markets, where front-end contracts rose more than 2% from relatively low levels. The physical Newcastle market saw more aggressive offers, though NEWC swaps still ended the session largely unchanged.
Brent Crude
Oil futures finished higher as the market weighed Venezuelan supply risks against the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine resolution and expectations of significant oversupply in 2026. While potential disruptions to Venezuelan exports offer some support, analysts continue to view these risks as modest relative to the scale of surplus likely to emerge if Russian supply normalises. The more pressing concern remains inventories: crude held at sea has risen to around 1.3 billion barrels, the highest level since April 2020, with slow-moving tankers signalling difficulty in clearing excess supply. With OPEC+ and non-OPEC output still rising, inventory dynamics are expected to be the dominant driver of prices in the months ahead.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher, with the I2605 contract closing at RMB 780, up 0.52%. Despite the uptick, fundamentals remain soft. Maintenance at northern Chinese steel mills reduced hot metal output and port pick-up volumes, leading to continued inventory accumulation at ports. Safety inspections in some regions tightened spot availability, offering limited price support, but steel mills maintained disciplined, demand-led restocking under strict cost controls. Overall trading activity remained subdued, and prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper posted modest gains and was on track for a weekly rise, supported by renewed focus on structural supply constraints. Goldman Sachs reiterated its long-term bullish view, citing limited mine expansion and robust demand growth, while near-term gains were capped by a firmer U.S. dollar. Market participants continue to view copper as fundamentally well supported, though some caution that prices near $12,000 may struggle to extend further without stronger demand confirmation.
*Manganese&
The manganese ore market remained firm, underpinned by rising overseas offers for January 2026 shipments and strong cost support. Supply conditions were tight for several mainstream ore types, with traders holding prices firm. Demand showed regional divergence: northern SiMn producers maintained relatively active purchasing on expectations of production restarts, while southern producers remained in off-season mode, buying strictly on demand. Port inventories were mixed, with Tianjin balanced and Qinzhou elevated. Overall, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with downstream alloy demand the key variable to monitor.
Lead
Lead supply increased slightly as some primary smelters resumed operations, but falling prices encouraged downstream buyers to purchase on dips. Year-end cash-flow needs prompted active selling, reducing smelter inventories. Transport restrictions in parts of China delayed deliveries, which may further tighten visible inventories once lifted. In the secondary market, lower prices reduced selling appetite, narrowing discounts to near parity. Spot market activity remained light, with most demand covered via long-term contracts.
Chrome
Chrome ore trading activity improved as earlier low-priced material was largely cleared. Traders showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, while ferrochrome producers gradually returned to the market, easing counteroffer pressure. Stable overseas mine quotations, including flat pricing for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt, helped offset weaker steel tender prices and supported confidence. Phased restocking ahead of future demand led to more concentrated transactions. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with attention on upcoming steel mill bidding outcomes.
Overall, markets remain finely balanced between surplus-driven pressure and pockets of structural support. With inventories, restocking behaviour, and cost discipline dominating decision-making, price action is likely to stay measured and rangebound as the year draws to a close.
