18th December 2025
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.13/bll – Up 0.75%%
Iron Ore: $106.61/mt – Up 0.24%
LME 3-month copper: $11,753/mt – Up 0.09%
Commodity markets traded with a firmer tone in parts of the complex today, as geopolitical developments provided support to energy prices while metals markets remained cautious amid year-end positioning and pending macro data.
Coal
Coal prices were relatively subdued today, with API2 trading largely flat and finding modest support later in the session. NEWC swaps remained under pressure as support in the physical Newcastle market continued to ease. European gas prices edged higher, with front-end contracts up around 1%, while Brent crude also gained roughly 1%, ending the day just above the $60 level.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose by more than 1% in early trading as geopolitical tensions intensified. Earlier this week, President Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, signalling a significant escalation in U.S. pressure on the country. Trump said Venezuela was “completely surrounded” by U.S. naval and air forces, a move analysts at ANZ Research warned could disrupt a substantial volume of crude supply.
Further support came from reports that the U.S. is preparing tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector should President Putin fail to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine. With Brent trading near $60 per barrel and the market currently well supplied, analysts note Washington has greater scope to tighten sanctions without sharply destabilising prices.
Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending December 12, adding to near-term price support.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-traded I2605 contract closing at 777.5, up 1.63% on the day. While both supply and demand declined, inventories continued to draw down, and stocks of the five major steel products remained relatively low. Environmental restrictions in regions such as Hebei and Sichuan, along with maintenance at some steel mills, reduced output and eased inventory pressure. Supportive macro news and a sharp rise in coking coal prices further lifted sentiment, allowing iron ore to rebound alongside other ferrous products. However, with the supply-demand gap still widening, upside potential is expected to be limited and short-term pullback risks remain.
Copper (LME)
Copper traded without clear direction as year-end position trimming and caution ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data weighed on activity. Some light profit-taking was evident as traders reduced exposure ahead of the Christmas holiday. Copper is up nearly 34% in 2025 and reached a record high of $11,952 last week. Despite the near-term consolidation, analysts remain constructive on the medium-term outlook, citing constrained supply and expectations of continued demand growth into 2026. A firmer U.S. dollar added pressure, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Risk sentiment also remained fragile following volatility in U.S. technology shares, keeping markets focused on upcoming inflation data and central bank guidance.
With liquidity thinning into the holiday period and key economic releases still ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines and positioning flows. Volatility may persist as participants balance geopolitical risks, supply fundamentals, and central bank signals into year-end.
