17th December 2025
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $59.66/bll – Up 1.26%
Iron Ore: $107/mt – Up 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,732.50/mt – Up 1.29%
Commodity markets saw a shift in tone today, with energy prices reacting to fresh geopolitical developments while industrial metals drew support from tightening supply dynamics and strategic policy initiatives.
Coal
API2 and NEWC found additional support today, tracking broader strength across the energy complex. European gas prices rose more than 2%, while front-month Brent crude gained around 1.5% as renewed U.S.–Venezuela tensions raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. The physical Newcastle market showed slightly less underlying support, though NEWC swaps still moved higher in line with the wider energy rally.
Brent Crude
Oil prices climbed more than 1.5% after President Trump ordered a full blockade on sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, significantly escalating U.S. pressure on the country. The move follows the recent seizure of a tanker and raises the risk of sustained supply disruptions affecting roughly 590,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan exports, most of which are shipped to China. The rebound comes after prices had settled near five-year lows in the prior session, weighed down by progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks that could eventually lead to an easing of sanctions on Moscow and additional supply entering an already fragile demand environment.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended their rebound, with the most-traded DCE I2605 contract closing at 768, up 1.25% on the day. Trading activity was mixed, with sellers active while steel mills purchased cautiously on a needs basis. Environmental restrictions in northern China have led some mills to idle or suspend blast furnaces, reducing hot metal output and keeping underlying fundamentals weak. However, short-term production cuts have supported steel prices and improved mill margins, easing market pessimism and lifting ore prices above CNY 760/tonne. Expectations that mills will begin restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year in February have also provided support, offsetting recent pressure stemming from China’s move to introduce export licensing for certain steel products from January 1.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices firmed, supported by tight supply fundamentals and expectations of further monetary easing in the U.S. LME futures rose 0.9% to $11,720 per tonne and are nearly 9% higher on the month. Morgan Stanley forecasts growing supply stress into 2026, citing persistent mine disruptions, a limited project pipeline, and accelerating demand from energy storage, data centres and grid infrastructure. Lower U.S. interest rates are also expected to underpin demand.
At the same time, China is moving to secure its copper supply chain, formally recognising the metal as critical for sectors including electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and defence. Provincial initiatives are gathering pace, with Jiangxi targeting leadership in advanced copper materials and Shandong planning to build a RMB 200 billion copper industry by 2027. The trend highlights copper’s emergence as a strategic metal amid electrification-driven demand growth and global supply constraints.
As geopolitical risks, policy decisions and structural supply constraints continue to shape sentiment, markets are likely to remain sensitive to headline developments, with volatility persisting across both energy and metals in the near term.
