16th December 2025
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.00/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $59.10/bll – Down 2.41%
Iron Ore: $106.60/mt – Up 0.33%
LME 3-month copper: $11,589/mt – Down 0.59%
Commodity markets traded with a cautious tone as weakening energy fundamentals contrasted with more resilient pricing in bulk commodities, while base metals saw heightened volatility amid thin liquidity and shifting macro expectations.
Coal
API2 prices steadied today, ending largely unchanged despite weakness across European gas and oil markets. Front-end European gas contracts fell around 2%, while front-month Brent crude dropped nearly 2.5%, slipping below the $60 level. In the physical market, improved offers in Newcastle put renewed pressure on NEWC swaps, which eased lower once again.
Brent Crude
Oil prices extended their decline, with Brent falling below USD 60 per barrel for the first time since May as evidence mounted that supply is running well ahead of demand. The latest drop leaves Brent down roughly 20% year-to-date, marking its weakest annual performance since 2018. The global benchmark slid as much as 2%, its sixth decline in seven sessions, while U.S. crude futures fell further from their weakest close since 2021. Bearish signals are increasingly evident, with Middle Eastern grades and some U.S. Gulf Coast barrels slipping into contango. Refining margins that previously supported crude—particularly for gasoline and diesel—have also eased. Ample supply remains the dominant theme, driven by OPEC+ output increases and continued production growth across the Americas, while soft economic data from China continue to cloud the demand outlook.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures edged higher, with the most-traded I2605 contract closing at 761, up 1.06% on the day. However, underlying fundamentals remain weak. Blast furnace maintenance and environmental restrictions, particularly in Hebei, have reduced hot metal output and constrained demand. At the same time, transport disruptions and production curbs have tightened local supply, offering some price support. Steel mills continue to push back on prices, and with further sintering restrictions possible, iron ore prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices eased in cautious trade ahead of U.S. jobs data and amid thinning year-end liquidity. With limited fresh fundamental drivers, exaggerated price swings have become more common. Despite the pullback, copper remains up around 33% year-to-date, its strongest annual gain since 2009, supported by mine disruptions, U.S. stock inflows and longer-term demand expectations tied to data centres and electrification. Market focus has shifted from rate cuts to uncertainty over the future policy path, with divisions within the U.S. Federal Reserve and renewed concerns about an AI-driven valuation bubble weighing on sentiment. Spot market conditions have loosened as suppliers showed greater willingness to sell, while buying interest remained subdued. In China, the Yangshan premium stabilised at USD 42, a two-month high, indicating steady but unspectacular import demand.
Overall, markets remain under pressure from oversupply in energy, fragile demand signals, and heightened sensitivity to macro data. With liquidity thinning and uncertainty elevated, price action is likely to remain volatile and rangebound into year-end as participants await clearer signals on supply discipline, demand recovery, and policy direction.
