15th December 2025
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.00/mt API4 $89.00/mt
Brent Crude: $60.26/bll – Down 1.41%
Iron Ore: $106.00/mt – Up 0.14%
LME 3-month copper: $11,682/mt – Up 1.42%
LME 3-month lead: $1,947.50/mt – Down 01.09%
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%): $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% min): $225/mt CIF China
SA Manganese Ore (42%Mn12%Fe): $4.67/mtu CIF South China
SA Manganese Ore (38%Mn5%Fe): $4.55/mtu CIF South China
Commodity markets opened the week under continued pressure, with oversupply concerns weighing on energy and bulk commodities, while base metals were influenced by positioning activity and near-term technical factors rather than a clear improvement in underlying demand.
Coal
Coal prices weakened again today, led by declines in API2 as a pullback in European gas prices weighed on sentiment. After last week’s rally, front-end European gas contracts fell nearly 2.5%, adding further pressure to API2. The physical Newcastle market remained steady, with NEWC and API4 swaps proving relatively more resilient than API2.
Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower today, extending last week’s sharp declines as concerns over excess supply and subdued demand continued to dominate sentiment. Both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week, reflecting growing expectations that global output is rising faster than consumption. Analysts warn that the market is heading into 2026 with a surplus, as increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers coincides with weak demand growth, particularly in China and Europe. These conditions have limited the durability of price rebounds, even amid periodic geopolitical tensions. Additional pressure has come from optimism that diplomatic efforts could eventually end the war in Ukraine, potentially allowing more Russian crude back into global markets should sanctions be eased.
Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in more than five months, weighed down by concerns over China’s plan to introduce a steel export licensing system from 2026. The move, aimed at curbing surging steel exports amid rising global protectionism, has cast a shadow over demand expectations for iron ore. China’s crude steel output declined 3% month-on-month in November, marking a sixth consecutive monthly fall as weak margins and a prolonged property downturn dampened domestic demand. That said, downside may be limited, with analysts noting that mills are likely to restock ahead of the Lunar New Year in February to maintain operations.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices firmed as traders rolled positions ahead of a contract expiry this week, temporarily offsetting weak Chinese data and renewed concerns around the property sector. The metal hit a record high of $11,952 on Friday on supply-tightness fears before retreating amid broader risk-off sentiment. Market participants expect heightened volatility into year-end and early 2026. Short positions on the LME were cut or rolled ahead of Wednesday’s settlement, while a sizeable portion of exchange stocks was earmarked for delivery. Meanwhile, U.S. Comex copper inventories continued to rise, supported by higher domestic prices. Refined copper remains excluded from U.S. import tariffs introduced in August, though it is still under review.
Lead
LME lead prices weakened today after trading in a narrow range earlier in the session. Some secondary smelters in northern China have increased scrap battery purchases ahead of potential winter-related logistical disruptions. However, the expected resumption of production at primary smelters and the approach of SHFE delivery are likely to lift inventories. In the near term, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure, with raw material costs providing some support but rising inventories posing a downside risk.
Chrome
The chrome ore market began the week on a firmer footing, with improved trading sentiment and renewed attempts to lift prices after values appeared to bottom out. Traders showed greater willingness to hold offers firm as high-priced futures cargoes continued to arrive at ports. Purchasing activity from ferrochrome producers picked up, supporting market liquidity, while flat futures pricing reinforced confidence. However, high port inventories and the prospect of lower January stainless steel tender prices may cap upside. Overseas futures for 40–42% South African concentrate remained steady at $263/mt, supporting prices, and some domestic traders have begun stockpiling for 2026. In the short term, the market is expected to trade steadily.
Manganese
Manganese ore prices remained elevated, with overall cost support holding firm despite selective price declines in some grades. Alloy plants across northern and southern China maintained stable operating rates, underpinning demand.
Looking ahead, market direction is likely to remain cautious as participants balance weak fundamentals against short-term positioning flows and seasonal restocking. Volatility is expected to persist into year-end as traders monitor supply developments, policy signals, and demand indicators across key markets.
