12th December 2025
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.75/mt
Brent Crude: $61.00/bll – Down 0.46%
Iron Ore: $105.40/mt – Up 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,545/mt – Down 2.67%
LME 3-month lead: $1,974.50/mt – Down 0.70%
Global commodity markets closed the week with a cautious and mixed tone, as surplus concerns in energy offset pockets of support across bulk commodities and base metals. Price action remained largely fundamentals-driven, with traders balancing near-term oversupply against selective demand resilience and policy signals.
Coal
Despite a strong 3% rise in European gas prices, API2 swaps were largely unchanged on the day. In contrast, the FOB markets for API4 and NEWC softened, as physical offers in South Africa and Newcastle edged slightly lower.
Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower on Friday and were set for a weekly decline, with attention focused on a growing supply glut and the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which overshadowed concerns around Venezuelan supply risks. Brent is down more than 4% on the week, reflecting a market where supply continues to exceed demand and any price rebounds are likely to be short-lived. The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year, while OPEC expects supply and demand to be more closely balanced in 2026. Some support remains from rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, though these factors have so far failed to materially shift sentiment.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded rangebound, with the DCE I2605 contract closing at 760.5, down 0.33% on the day. New discussions around port storage fee regulations unsettled the market, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure, particularly among non-mainstream traders. With macro drivers largely played out and fundamentals still weak, iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure and trade in the doldrums into next week.
Copper (LME)
Copper eased after briefly approaching the $12,000 per tonne mark, as elevated prices began to test demand, though the metal remained on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Supply disruptions are expected to keep a floor around $11,000/tonne, but further upside will depend on stronger demand, especially from China. ANZ maintains a constructive longer-term view, expecting prices to stay above $11,000 in 2026 and potentially approach $12,000 by year-end. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories edged 0.5% higher to 89,389 tonnes, and Chinese policymakers reiterated commitments to a proactive fiscal stance in 2026.
Lead (LME)
Lead prices remained soft in the spot market, with slightly higher week-on-week supply and downstream buyers sticking to cautious, just-in-time procurement. Regional pricing was mixed: #1 lead traded around parity to small discounts in Henan, while tighter smelter inventories in Hunan supported modest premiums. Secondary refined lead discounts were largely unchanged, and overall spot activity stayed subdued. Structurally, the global lead market is entering a tighter, more balanced phase. Growth in primary supply is constrained by declining ore grades and mining limits, while recycled lead continues to gain share but is capped by raw-material collection bottlenecks. Smelters are increasingly reliant on secondary lead, investing in efficiency and compliance to manage rising costs. Demand remains anchored by lead-acid batteries, with emerging energy-storage applications still at an early stage. Shifting trade policies and regulatory requirements are adding friction to cross-border flows, reinforcing a market increasingly driven by supply constraints rather than demand expansion.
Chrome
Chrome ore prices stabilised and rebounded modestly this week as earlier oversold conditions encouraged traders to hold back supply and ferrochrome producers gradually resumed purchasing. Flat overseas futures quotations for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt supported sentiment and improved trading activity. However, ongoing stainless steel production cuts continue to cap demand, limiting upside potential. Market focus remains on offshore futures pricing and the pace of ferrochrome procurement.
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%): $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% min): $225/mt CIF China
Manganese
The manganese ore market remained firm, with prices rising across most grades and particularly strong gains in high-grade material. On the supply side, major miners lifted or held January 2026 offers, reinforcing bullish expectations. Traders kept offers firm, especially for scarce high-grade oxide ore, while South African material showed more mixed price movement due to steadier supply. Demand was mixed regionally. Northern SiMn producers showed strong buying interest ahead of expected restarts in Inner Mongolia, supporting prices for Australian and Gabonese lumps. In contrast, southern alloy plants operated at lower rates and bought mainly on a spot-need basis. Overall, manganese ore prices moved higher on firm supply and expectations, though weak downstream demand has started to weigh on some grades. The market remains elevated for now, with sustainability dependent on alloy-plant demand.
SA Manganese Ore (42%Mn12%Fe): $4.67/mtu CIF China
SA Manganese Ore (36%Mn20%Fe): $3.78/mtu CIF China
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain rangebound and reactive, with supply dynamics continuing to dominate sentiment. Attention will stay focused on demand indicators, policy developments, and year-end positioning as participants assess whether emerging support can offset ongoing structural pressures.
