11th December 2025
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.50/mt API4 $91.50/mt
Brent Crude: $60.91/bll – Down 2.07%
Iron Ore: $106.40/mt – Up 0.52%
LME 3-month copper: $11,873/mt – Up 2.58%
Commodity markets moved with a cautious tone today as traders weighed oversupply pressures in energy, shifting macro signals, and renewed strength across industrial metals following the U.S. rate decision. Sentiment was mixed, with geopolitical developments adding further uncertainty.
Brent Crude
Brent crude extended its decline on Thursday, with persistent oversupply from Russia, the U.S. and OPEC keeping any rallies constrained. Asian buyers are demanding steep discounts for Venezuelan crude as sanctioned Russian and Iranian barrels flood the market and rising U.S. military activity in the Caribbean increases loading risks. President Donald Trump stated that U.S. authorities had seized a tanker linked to Venezuelan shipments, even as Venezuela continues to lift export volumes despite Washington’s pressure on President Maduro. In India, refiners including Nayara Energy are reportedly increasing purchases of Russian crude from non-sanctioned suppliers, attracted by widening discounts that improve procurement economics.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded narrowly in the morning before dropping sharply in the afternoon, with the DCE I2605 contract closing at 757 yuan, down 1.3% on the day. The Federal Reserve’s 25bp rate cut kept broader market sentiment stable, but a series of bearish rumours triggered a rapid sell-off. Reports circulated that Zk might tighten controls on storage times for overseas mines and traders, potentially adding storage fees. At the same time, speculation emerged that a steel export licensing system could be announced tomorrow. These rumours intensified bearish sentiment and weighed heavily on prices. The imminent conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference also remains a key focus, with policy signals expected to influence future market direction.
Copper (LME)
Copper surged to a new record high after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated rate cut and upgraded its growth outlook. LME prices rose as much as 2.1% to $11,800.50 per tonne, surpassing Monday’s peak. While the Fed cut rates for a third consecutive meeting, its updated statement suggested growing uncertainty over the pace of future reductions as policymakers balance growth support with inflation control. The Fed now forecasts U.S. economic growth of 2.3% next year—up from 1.8%—and expects inflation to ease to 2.4%. Lower rates tend to favour industrial metals by enhancing their appeal over yield-bearing assets and reducing financing costs for manufacturers and other metal-intensive sectors.
Across the complex, markets remain sensitive to shifts in policy expectations, supply developments and geopolitical signals. With uncertainty still elevated, price movements are likely to stay reactive and momentum-driven as traders await clearer direction from upcoming policy decisions and fundamental data.
