8th December 2025
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $97.10/mt API4 $91.50/mt
Brent Crude: $62.83/bll – Down 1.46%
Iron Ore: $105.80/mt – Down 0.09%
LME 3-month copper: $11,627/mt – Up 0.12%
LME 3month-lead: $2,000/mt – Down, 0.10%
Commodity markets today reflected a mix of geopolitical risk, shifting supply dynamics, and evolving macroeconomic expectations. Energy, bulk materials, and base metals each moved on distinct fundamentals, with traders weighing immediate disruptions against broader policy signals and year-end demand trends.
Coal
Coal prices found moderate support again today, led by gains in NEWC swaps, which were buoyed by stronger bidding interest in the physical Newcastle market. The broader energy complex was softer, with European gas prices falling a further 2% and front-month Brent crude slipping 1.5%.
Brent Crude
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have disrupted crude loadings, adding strain to global supply chains. Russia has attempted to reassure buyers such as India that deliveries will remain stable, but weak demand and rising output from major producers continue to cast a shadow over the market. Attention now turns to forthcoming monthly outlooks from the EIA, IEA and OPEC, which are expected to help define near-term direction. Some analysts maintain that Brent could drift toward USD 60 per barrel by 2026 amid persistent concerns about long-term demand.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures softened today, with the DCE I2605 contract closing at RMB 760.5, down 1.43% week-on-week. Shipments to China fell slightly to 26.88 million tonnes, while hot-metal production saw a more notable decline, signalling weaker demand. Market participants are watching the conclusion of negotiations between Zhongkuang and BHP; if supply restrictions ease, increased availability could amplify selling pressure. Despite this, supportive macro expectations limit the downside, and prices are likely to continue drifting within a weak, rangebound pattern.
Copper (LME)
Copper set a fresh all-time high, climbing to $11,771 per tonne before easing back, supported by Beijing’s reaffirmed commitment to growth through proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary stance. Expectations of investment in power-grid upgrades and computing infrastructure have added to bullish sentiment. Stronger-than-expected Chinese export data—pushing the annual trade surplus above $1 trillion—also contributed, while continued U.S. stockpiling has tightened global availability. Momentum remains firmly to the upside.
Lead (LME)
Lead prices held firm as seasonal declines in waste lead-acid battery supply reduced raw material availability for secondary smelters. Although some smelters moderated raw-material price increases due to adequate inventories, lead ingot supply has tightened, with domestic social stocks hitting a 15-month low. Downstream battery manufacturers have increased procurement ahead of year-end demand, and the combination of stronger buying and constrained supply is expected to keep lead prices supported in the short term.
Chrome
The chrome ore market started the week quietly, though steady futures offers and renewed buying from major ferrochrome producers helped lift sentiment slightly. Oversold prices encouraged traders to hold firmer, but stainless-steel production cuts and weak ferrochrome prices continue to cap the upside. South African 40–42% concentrate held at $263/mt, while some traders began small-scale stockpiling for 2026. Severe congestion at Mozambique’s Beira Port has driven up freight costs for Zimbabwean ore, adding further pressure. Overall, the near-term outlook remains subdued. In South Africa, the ferrochrome sector is under mounting strain. Eskom has signed an MoU with Samancor and the Glencore–Merafe venture to prevent large-scale job losses, with a task team set to deliver an electricity-pricing solution within three months. Glencore will idle two smelters in January, affecting 2,400 workers, while Samancor has flagged similar risks. Temporary relief under existing pricing agreements highlights the need for a long-term fix.
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%) – $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% Min) – $225/mt CIF China
With geopolitical tensions unresolved and key policy updates imminent, market direction remains finely balanced. Participants will continue to monitor supply tightness, industrial demand, and macro guidance as they position for the close of the year and the early outlook for 2026.
