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London Commodity News

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12th December 2025

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Coal: Dec API2 $96.75/mt API4 $89.75/mt
Brent Crude: $61.00/bll – Down 0.46%
Iron Ore: $105.40/mt – Up 0.19%
LME 3-month copper: $11,545/mt – Down 2.67%
LME 3-month lead: $1,974.50/mt – Down 0.70%

Global commodity markets closed the week with a cautious and mixed tone, as surplus concerns in energy offset pockets of support across bulk commodities and base metals. Price action remained largely fundamentals-driven, with traders balancing near-term oversupply against selective demand resilience and policy signals.

Coal
Despite a strong 3% rise in European gas prices, API2 swaps were largely unchanged on the day. In contrast, the FOB markets for API4 and NEWC softened, as physical offers in South Africa and Newcastle edged slightly lower.

Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower on Friday and were set for a weekly decline, with attention focused on a growing supply glut and the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which overshadowed concerns around Venezuelan supply risks. Brent is down more than 4% on the week, reflecting a market where supply continues to exceed demand and any price rebounds are likely to be short-lived. The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year, while OPEC expects supply and demand to be more closely balanced in 2026. Some support remains from rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, though these factors have so far failed to materially shift sentiment.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded rangebound, with the DCE I2605 contract closing at 760.5, down 0.33% on the day. New discussions around port storage fee regulations unsettled the market, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure, particularly among non-mainstream traders. With macro drivers largely played out and fundamentals still weak, iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure and trade in the doldrums into next week.

Copper (LME)
Copper eased after briefly approaching the $12,000 per tonne mark, as elevated prices began to test demand, though the metal remained on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Supply disruptions are expected to keep a floor around $11,000/tonne, but further upside will depend on stronger demand, especially from China. ANZ maintains a constructive longer-term view, expecting prices to stay above $11,000 in 2026 and potentially approach $12,000 by year-end. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories edged 0.5% higher to 89,389 tonnes, and Chinese policymakers reiterated commitments to a proactive fiscal stance in 2026.

Lead (LME)
Lead prices remained soft in the spot market, with slightly higher week-on-week supply and downstream buyers sticking to cautious, just-in-time procurement. Regional pricing was mixed: #1 lead traded around parity to small discounts in Henan, while tighter smelter inventories in Hunan supported modest premiums. Secondary refined lead discounts were largely unchanged, and overall spot activity stayed subdued. Structurally, the global lead market is entering a tighter, more balanced phase. Growth in primary supply is constrained by declining ore grades and mining limits, while recycled lead continues to gain share but is capped by raw-material collection bottlenecks. Smelters are increasingly reliant on secondary lead, investing in efficiency and compliance to manage rising costs. Demand remains anchored by lead-acid batteries, with emerging energy-storage applications still at an early stage. Shifting trade policies and regulatory requirements are adding friction to cross-border flows, reinforcing a market increasingly driven by supply constraints rather than demand expansion.

Chrome
Chrome ore prices stabilised and rebounded modestly this week as earlier oversold conditions encouraged traders to hold back supply and ferrochrome producers gradually resumed purchasing. Flat overseas futures quotations for 40–42% South African fines at $263/mt supported sentiment and improved trading activity. However, ongoing stainless steel production cuts continue to cap demand, limiting upside potential. Market focus remains on offshore futures pricing and the pace of ferrochrome procurement.
SA Chrome Ore (40–42%): $264/mt CIF China
SA Chrome Lump (38% min): $225/mt CIF China

Manganese
The manganese ore market remained firm, with prices rising across most grades and particularly strong gains in high-grade material. On the supply side, major miners lifted or held January 2026 offers, reinforcing bullish expectations. Traders kept offers firm, especially for scarce high-grade oxide ore, while South African material showed more mixed price movement due to steadier supply. Demand was mixed regionally. Northern SiMn producers showed strong buying interest ahead of expected restarts in Inner Mongolia, supporting prices for Australian and Gabonese lumps. In contrast, southern alloy plants operated at lower rates and bought mainly on a spot-need basis. Overall, manganese ore prices moved higher on firm supply and expectations, though weak downstream demand has started to weigh on some grades. The market remains elevated for now, with sustainability dependent on alloy-plant demand.
SA Manganese Ore (42%Mn12%Fe): $4.67/mtu CIF China
SA Manganese Ore (36%Mn20%Fe): $3.78/mtu CIF China

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain rangebound and reactive, with supply dynamics continuing to dominate sentiment. Attention will stay focused on demand indicators, policy developments, and year-end positioning as participants assess whether emerging support can offset ongoing structural pressures.

*London Commodity News*

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6th March 2025

*Coal*

European gas prices plunged, with the front month and quarter contracts down around 9% as talks on resuming Russian gas transit through Ukraine gained traction. Despite broader energy market weakness, NEWC swaps climbed, driven by apparent buying interest. API2 prices remained steady, ending the day largely unchanged despite the gas selloff.

*Brent Crude*

Brent made another attempt to break above $70 today but fell short. A brief rally followed reports that President Trump may scrap the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports that comply with trade agreements. However, rising OPEC supply and persistent tariff uncertainty kept prices under pressure. April settlement Brent was at $68.50 at 16:24 GMT, down 0.57%.

*Dutch TTF Gas*

European natural gas extended its sharp selloff, with prices hammered again today. The European Commission’s delay in unveiling its plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels fueled speculation that a partial resumption of Russian pipeline gas could be part of a future peace deal. Additionally, the EU confirmed some flexibility in storage targets, though member states are still expected to reach 90% storage capacity by 1 November. Dutch TTF gas was down nearly 8% to €37.77/MWh at 16:44 GMT.

*Iron Ore*

DCE iron ore futures continued to slide, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 771 yuan/mt, down 1.34%. Traders held back offers, while steel mills adopted a wait-and-see approach, leading to sluggish transactions. PB fines fell by 5 yuan/mt in both Shandong (775 yuan/mt) and Tangshan (785 yuan/mt).
A key domestic meeting confirmed that crude steel production controls will remain in place through 2025, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Adding to the pressure, the US imposed additional tariffs on China, driving iron ore prices to new lows. Market attention now shifts to tomorrow’s SMM steel inventory data—any decline could support pig iron demand. TSI 62%Fe iron ore on SGX is $100.72

*Copper*

Copper prices surged again as traders and smelters scrambled to secure supply ahead of the impending 25% US tariff, which would force a heavier reliance on domestic production. COMEX copper jumped around 5%, widening the spread against LME copper. The LME 3-month contract was at $9,728.50 at 16:36 GMT, up 1.51%.

LONDON COMMODITY NEWS

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21st February 2025

*Brent Crude*

Brent crude is on track for a 1.5% weekly gain, driven by Russian supply disruptions and improving US and Chinese demand. A Ukrainian drone strike reduced Caspian Pipeline Consortium flows by 30%-40%, though record production from Kazakhstan helped offset losses. In the US, crude inventories rose, but gasoline and distillate stocks declined due to seasonal refinery maintenance. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions eased after Ukraine signalled a willingness to negotiate, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested Russia could receive sanctions relief if talks progress. Global oil demand averaged 103.4 million bpd as of February 19th. Brent crude last traded at $75.15, down 1.75% at 15h32 GMT.

*Dutch TTF Natural Gas*

With European gas storage at 43%, meeting the EU’s 90% target by November is becoming increasingly difficult. In response, Germany, France, and Italy are pushing to ease storage mandates to stabilize prices and reduce short-term supply pressure. Warmer weather and increased LNG imports have slowed withdrawals, but supply remains tight, with major LNG infrastructure expansion not expected until 2026. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Russian gas flows continues, while diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict remain uncertain. Dutch Gas TTF futures are down 1.4% at €46.76 as of 15h45 GMT.

*Iron Ore*

Iron ore futures continued to climb, with the most-traded contract closing at 838.5 yuan/mt, up 1.51% on the day. Traders were active sellers, while steel mills selectively locked in profits, indicating moderate buying interest. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 830-835 yuan/mt, up 1-5 yuan/mt, while in Tangshan, prices remained stable at 840-845 yuan/mt. Market optimism persists ahead of China’s Two Sessions, but with iron ore prices already elevated, further gains may face resistance. TSI 62% Fe iron ore futures on SGX were last at $108.15 for the March contract.

*Copper*

Base metals ended the week higher, supported by trade war concerns and a weaker US dollar. Copper rose 0.7% on the week, while aluminium gained 2.3%. North American copper production was 5% below 2024 guidance, with 2025 forecasts also trailing consensus, reflecting cautious miner outlooks and operational challenges, according to RBC Capital Markets. Improving US-China relations offer constructive support for metals, reinforcing positive sentiment. Meanwhile, China has imposed restrictions on copper smelting due to overcapacity, leading to higher copper imports and declining inventories, though smelters face profitability challenges. LME 3-month copper is down 0.10% at $9,543 as of 16h00 GMT.

*Lithium Carbonate*

Lithium carbonate prices declined toward CNY 76,000 per tonne after hovering near a one-month high of CNY 77,900. Although EV sales in China picked up as new government incentives took effect, high battery inventories have limited demand for fresh supply contracts. Lithium miners continue production to maintain market share and business relationships, preventing a deeper price correction.

LONDON COMMODITY NEWS

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22nd January 2025

Coal

Coal prices saw a significant pullback today, with API2 contracts leading the decline, falling by nearly $5 at certain points along the curve. European gas prices also dropped notably, with shorter-dated contracts losing approximately 2.5%, attracting sellers after the recent rallies. Additionally, the physical DES ARA market showed increased offers compared to yesterday, adding further downward pressure on swaps.

Brent
Oil prices fell for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday as trade war concerns weighed on sentiment. March Brent crude declined 0.18% to $79.28 per barrel, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on Chinese goods starting February 1. Canada, a key supplier of heavy crude to U.S. refineries, accounts for nearly two-thirds of U.S. oil imports.
Trump’s policies, including a national energy emergency declaration to expand U.S. oil output, further pressured prices. Recent U.S. sanctions on Russia disrupted physical oil markets, providing some support. Additionally, a winter storm in the Gulf Coast led to temporary production losses in North Dakota, estimated at 130,000–160,000 barrels per day.

Dutch TTF Gas
European natural gas prices stabilised near €49–50 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday, balancing supply and demand concerns. Forecasts for warmer, windier weather in Europe suggested reduced heating needs, while cold weather in Texas disrupted operations at Port Freeport, the U.S.’s second-largest LNG export facility.
European gas storage levels remain at 59%, significantly lower than 74% at the same time last year. President Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on LNG export licences is expected to increase U.S. exports to Europe and Asia. This aligns with a projected 15% rise in European LNG imports this year, tightening global gas markets.

Iron Ore
Iron ore futures eased on Wednesday, with concerns over U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports adding to market pressure. The most-traded May iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.44% to 800.5 yuan ($109.94) per metric ton, ending a nine-session rally. On the Singapore Exchange, February contracts slipped 1.1% to $101.21 per ton.
Despite rising pig iron production and higher operating rates at steel mills, trading was subdued as mills remained cautious. Prices for PB fines in Shandong fell 5 yuan per ton from the previous session. However, ongoing restocking needs and steady pig iron output may support a short-term recovery in iron ore prices.

Copper
Base metals weakened on Wednesday, with LME three-month copper slipping 0.6% to $9,218 per metric ton. Market sentiment was dampened by U.S. trade policy uncertainty. Trump hinted at delaying tariffs on China while maintaining threats against Canada and Mexico, temporarily easing concerns of an immediate hit to commodities demand.
Caution also stemmed from upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions and slower activity ahead of China’s Lunar New Year. Optimism remains for additional stimulus measures from Beijing, with expectations that the People’s Bank of China may cut reserve requirement ratios for banks this month, supporting physical metals demand.

LONDON COMMODITY NEWS

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21st January 2025

*Coal*
The recent rally in coal prices continued unabated, with gains seen across indices, led by API2 contracts. European natural gas prices climbed sharply in the afternoon, with the front-month contract surging over 4% and nearing the €50 threshold again. Stronger bids in the DES ARA market further reinforced bullish sentiment for coal.

*Brent*
Oil prices weakened early on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency on his first day back in office. He postponed to February 1 the imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian oil imports, which account for 60% of U.S. oil imports.
West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery fell $1.98 to $75.90 per barrel, while March Brent crude declined $1.31 to $78.84 per barrel.
Despite the decline, Trump signed several executive orders to bolster the U.S. oil industry, including plans to increase production in Alaska, refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and cut subsidies for electric vehicles.
Brent crude futures hovered around $79 as markets processed these policies. The planned tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports tempered investor optimism, although specific measures targeting China, the world’s top oil importer, were deferred, keeping traders on edge. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks eased after a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas, adding to the downward pressure on prices.

*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices rose above €49 per megawatt-hour as traders reacted to Trump’s early executive actions and increased seasonal demand. Notable measures included lifting the moratorium on U.S. LNG export permits, paving the way for more supply to Europe and Asia. Trump also urged the EU to buy more American energy to avert potential tariffs.
Meanwhile, Russian natural gas flows to Europe through Ukraine stopped after failed negotiations between the two governments. Although the IEA reported no immediate risks to EU gas supply security, the reliance on LNG imports is expected to rise by over 15% this year, tightening global market dynamics. EU gas storage currently sits at 60% capacity.

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices gained momentum, with benchmark February futures on the Singapore Exchange trading at $101.45 per ton as of 15:00 GMT. Average hot metal production among 247 Chinese steelmakers rose by 1,100 tonnes per day from the previous week, reflecting growing demand.
Chinese markets responded positively to Trump’s decision to delay tariffs at his inauguration, though caution remains about future U.S.-China trade relations.
The most-traded I2505 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 804.5 yuan per metric ton, up 0.56%. PB fines transactions in Shandong and Tangshan rose 5 yuan per metric ton compared to yesterday’s prices. Moderate restocking needs among steel mills and reduced blast furnace maintenance have supported demand. Improved steel export tariff policies further boosted sentiment, driving prices higher.

*Copper*
Copper prices advanced after reports from The Wall Street Journal indicated Trump would delay imposing tariffs on his first day in office. This provided a brief reprieve for commodity markets, which have been concerned about economic fallout from such measures. The three-month LME copper contract rose 0.1% to $9,281 by 17:15 GMT.

London Commodity News

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16th January 2025

Coal

API2 coal prices continued their recovery, gaining momentum intraday before easing slightly in the afternoon. The resilience in API2 swaps suggests a decoupling from European gas prices, which were down approximately 1.5% for the front month.

In contrast, the physical Newcastle coal market remains relatively weak, though buying interest in NEWC swaps drove gains relative to other indices. This highlights a divergence between physical and paper markets, with traders possibly positioning for stronger demand or supply concerns in the near term.

Brent
Oil prices dipped below $81 per barrel on Thursday as geopolitical tensions eased following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The deal, though not yet implemented, marks a potential end to 15 months of conflict. Markets also reacted to U.S. sanctions on Russian crude and speculation that President-elect Donald Trump might adjust these restrictions.
Countries like India and China are seeking additional supplies from Saudi Arabia to offset potential shortfalls caused by sanctions. Traders are also monitoring changes in U.S. policies, including tariffs on Canadian oil and strategies to boost domestic production, ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

Dutch TTF Gas
Natural gas prices fell to €46.28 per megawatt-hour at 16:45 GMT due to steady supply and forecasts of higher wind and solar output. However, colder-than-normal temperatures in northwest Europe and weak wind power generation until January 24 are expected to increase demand.
Gas storage levels are lower than last year (65% full compared to 77% in 2024). Meanwhile, the EU is considering sanctions targeting Russian LNG imports, although pipeline imports have significantly decreased. Analysts predict ongoing volatility in the TTF market due to geopolitical concerns.

Iron Ore
SGX TSI 62% iron ore futures climbed above $100 per ton, driven by optimism over Chinese stimulus measures and concerns about disrupted shipments from Australia due to a cyclone.
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced plans to boost consumption and stabilize foreign trade, while strong steel mill restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year supported demand. Shandong transaction prices for PB fines rose to 785–790 yuan/mt, with Tangshan prices reaching 810–815 yuan/mt. Despite this, future demand is expected to weaken, limiting further price increases.

Copper
Copper prices rose, with LME three-month copper trading at $9,245 per metric ton. Prices have been supported by Chinese restocking and a reduced production outlook in Chile, which now forecasts 5.54 million tons of copper production by 2034.
Shanghai copper inventories have dropped significantly, while refined copper imports in China hit a 13-month high in December. The Yangshan copper premium, indicating import demand, reached a 12-month high in January. Secondary copper raw material prices in China increased by 300 yuan/mt month-on-month, reflecting robust market activity.

LONDON COMMODITY NEWS

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15th January 2025

*Coal*
API2 coal futures saw volatile trading, falling over $2 intraday before recovering slightly by the close, despite DES ARA physical markets trading lower. Newcastle (NEWC) swaps also declined, even as physical Newcastle February 2025 cargoes traded higher.

The Chinese Coal Transportation and Distribution Association announced plans to increase output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tonnes by 2025, citing expanded mining capacity to address risks from carbon limits and mine shutdowns. This comes as utilities grapple with record coal inventories, up 12% in the two months ending October. Demand remains under pressure from high rainfall in key Chinese manufacturing hubs, favouring hydroelectric power over coal.

*Brent*
Brent crude reached a 20-week high at $81.44/bbl, gaining 9.87% over four weeks and 3.73% year-on-year. Prices were buoyed by U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil producers and tankers, potentially disrupting supply. However, API data showing a 2.6 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks fell short of the 3.5 million-barrel expectation, moderating gains.

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted, “Tankers carrying Russian crude face challenges unloading globally, creating short-term tightness.” Market uncertainty persists as traders assess the sanctions’ impact. Brent futures edged up 1% to $80.50/bbl on expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts that could stimulate oil demand.

*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures fluctuated amid reports of potential EU sanctions phasing out Russian LNG. Dutch TTF gas closed at €47.035, up 0.19% as of 16:15 GMT. Cold weather forecasts for north-west Europe, combined with low wind power generation until January 24, are expected to boost gas demand.

Despite diversification efforts, Europe’s reliance on LNG remains significant, with colder temperatures accelerating withdrawals and increasing competition with Asia for supply.

Further Reading if you are interested to learn more about the European gas markets transition away from dependence on Russian LNG supply LNG Market in Flux: Europe and Asia Compete for Supply | OilPrice.com

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore hit a two-week high at $99.99/mt, supported by optimism over Chinese stimulus measures. Annual Chinese imports reached a record 1.24 billion tonnes in 2024, while steel exports hit 110.7 million tonnes, the highest since 2015.

China’s I2505 futures rose 0.71%, closing at 782.5 yuan/mt. PB fines traded at 780–785 yuan/mt in Shandong and 800–805 yuan/mt in Tangshan. With minimal inventory pressure and improving steel mill profits, iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.

*Copper*
Copper prices fluctuated, with LME copper dipping below $9,100/mt during the Asian session before rebounding to $9,160/mt by 16:45 GMT as the dollar slowed. SHFE copper closed at 75,430 yuan/mt, driven by cautious trading ahead of U.S. inflation data.

Increased smelter activity and strong Chinese imports of 559,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in December, the highest in 13 months, supported the market. Chinese copper futures (I2505) rose, with mainstream transaction prices stable in Shandong and Tangshan.

LONDON COMMODITY NEWS

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14th January 2025

Coal
Coal markets experienced volatility, reacting to shifts in the energy complex. Aggressive morning bidding pushed API2 up by $4 and Newcastle (NEWC) swaps up by $5, driven by short-covering following gas price gains. However, as gas markets retreated in the afternoon, coal saw a wave of selling, with both API2 and NEWC closing lower in prompt markets. Longer-dated calendar-year contracts, however, maintained support.

The Chinese Coal Transportation and Distribution Association announced plans to expand coal output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tonnes by 2025, aiming to mitigate risks from carbon limits and safety-related mine shutdowns. Despite this, record-high coal inventories, up 12% in two months to October, and increased hydroelectric generation from heavy rainfall are pressuring demand.

Brent
Oil retreated from five-month highs, with March Brent crude falling $1.06 to $79.95 as of 16:40 GMT. The market reacted to potential demand impacts from proposed 60% US tariffs on Chinese imports, overshadowing supply concerns from new sanctions targeting Russian oil producers, vessels, and traders.

Saxo Bank noted, “Brent’s rally paused near October highs as traders reassess demand risks tied to tariffs despite initial fears of reduced Russian supply.”

Dutch TTF Gas
Dutch TTF gas prices dipped after Monday’s 7% surge. LSEG analyst Wayne Bryan attributed the decline to profit-taking in the absence of fresh news. Monday’s rally followed US sanctions on Russian energy and reports of a TurkStream pipeline attack, which remained operational.

Ten EU nations proposed banning Russian LNG and pipeline gas, though major importers like Germany and France excluded themselves. Temperatures are expected to normalise after a cold spell, easing demand. Benchmark EU carbon prices dropped 0.54 euros to 76.38 euros per tonne.

Iron Ore
SGX TSI 62% iron ore rose 0.64% to $98.72 by 16:00 GMT. China’s I2505 contract climbed 2.22% to 783 yuan/mt amid strong selling interest. PB fines traded higher at 780–785 yuan/mt in Shandong and 800–805 yuan/mt in Tangshan, both up 10–15 yuan/mt.

Macro news boosted sentiment, with pre-holiday restocking supporting prices. Iron ore remains aligned with a broader upward trend in black commodities.

Copper
LME 3-month copper rose 0.73% to $9,158.50 by 16:16 GMT, driven by an 18% surge in Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products to 559,000 tonnes in December, the highest in 13 months. Rising smelter activity and robust exports supported the gains.

SHFE copper 2502 closed at 75,430 yuan/mt, while BC copper 2502 at 67,020 yuan/mt translates to a post-tax price of 75,733 yuan/mt, widening the inverted spread to -303 yuan/mt.

Warehouse warrant prices were $71–81/mt (QP January), up $1/mt. B/L prices reached $59–73/mt (QP February), up $1/mt, and EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt to $9–23/mt (QP February), reflecting late January and early February arrivals.

London Commodity News

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*Coal*

The coal market continued its downward trend, with prices across major indices showing declines, reflecting subdued sentiment.

*Brent*
Brent crude oil futures climbed to $80.76 per barrel, the highest since October, amid concerns over impending US sanctions on Russian oil supplies. These measures, targeting vessels, firms, and executives, could disrupt supply chains and strain maritime insurance markets. Indian refiners are reportedly preparing for potential impacts, heightening fears of tighter global supplies.

*TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures fell over 12% this week to €44/MWh, the lowest since mid-December, despite cold weather. Forecasts of milder temperatures and stable storage levels at 70% (down from 83% last year) offset concerns. Norway’s Kollsnes plant maintenance continues until January 11, while earlier price spikes above €50/MWh were driven by halted Russian flows and fears of rapid storage depletion.

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures edged higher Friday, supported by China’s stimulus measures, but logged a weekly decline due to seasonally weak demand. The most-traded May iron ore on DCE rose 0.4% to 753.5 yuan ($102.76), while Singapore’s February contract steadied at $97.05/ton. Blast furnace capacity utilisation fell for the eighth week to 84.24%. Prices saw a modest rebound with improved sentiment and demand, but fundamentals remain weak, limiting potential gains.

*Copper*

Copper futures rose 0.2% to $9,086 per tonne on Friday, marking their strongest weekly performance since May last year. The rally was buoyed by optimism that China, the world’s largest copper consumer, will ramp up monetary and fiscal stimulus to support economic growth. Expectations of robust demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies further bolstered prices. However, investor sentiment remained cautious amid rising global trade tensions and fears of a manufacturing slowdown, as incoming US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies loomed.

The market continues to feel the effects of a rare short squeeze in May 2024, triggered by ultra-low COMEX copper inventories. The squeeze pushed the LME-COMEX price spread above $1,000/mt, prompting traders to ship copper to US warehouses, gradually replenishing stocks. By January 2025, speculative activity and tariff-related uncertainties widened the COMEX premium over LME to $600/mt, despite weak fundamentals and record inventories. As traders leveraged inter-market arbitrage strategies, the price spread is expected to narrow further, while logistical constraints and limited deliverable sources in China continue to restrict opportunities for arbitrage.

#BrentOil #NaturalGas #IronOre #GlobalCommodities #MarketTrends #copper

London Commodity News 9th January 2025

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Coal
The downward trend in coal markets persisted today, with significant declines across major indices. European gas prices followed a similar path for most of the day but recovered slightly by the afternoon, ending marginally lower for the front month.
Physical Newcastle markets remained quiet, with NEWC swaps guided lower by the ongoing weakness in API2, reflecting prevailing bearish market sentiment.

Dutch TTF
European natural gas futures fell to €45/MWh, their lowest in nearly three weeks, as milder temperatures expected later this month are likely to boost availability. Weekend forecasts predict near or slightly above-normal conditions, stabilizing supplies. Storage levels remain below last year’s, at just under 70% compared to 83% in 2024.
Norway’s Gassco announced ongoing maintenance at the Kollsnes processing plant until January 11. Earlier this month, halted Russian gas flows following the expiration of a transit deal pushed prices above €50/MWh, their highest in 14 months, raising fears of storage depletion.
In the US, natural gas futures climbed above $3.7/MMBtu on supply disruptions and strong demand. US utilities reported a faster-than-expected withdrawal of 40 bcf, lowering total storage to 3,373 bcf as cold weather persists.

Brent
March Brent crude futures rose toward $77, supported by supply concerns amid falling US crude inventories and reduced Russian seaborne exports, which reached their lowest levels since August 2023.
Cold weather driving heating demand further bolstered the market, alongside a 1-million-barrel drop in US crude stocks. However, gains were limited by weak demand signals from China, where inflation nears zero, and a stronger US dollar, dampening oil’s global appeal. Record imports from Canada, at 4.42 million barrels, added to supply.

Iron Ore
Iron ore prices for 62% Fe cargoes remained below $98, hitting a three-month low as weak Chinese economic data and deflationary pressures weighed on sentiment. Steel mills continued cutting production due to shrinking margins, with further declines expected.
Despite this, port arrivals increased as miners met year-end delivery targets. Positively, China’s consumer goods trade-in scheme sparked hope for stronger demand.
DCE iron ore futures fluctuated upward, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing 0.53% higher at 754.5 yuan/mt. Traders displayed moderate selling interest, while steel mills purchased cautiously.

Copper
Copper prices remained under pressure from US tariff threats on Chinese goods but found support from Beijing’s stimulus measures. Analysts at MUFG forecast copper nearing $10,000/mt by year-end due to tight supply and growing demand for renewable energy technologies.
LME three-month copper gained 0.4% to $9,085/mt, underpinned by optimism surrounding Chinese government policies to spur growth, despite ongoing deflationary concerns.

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