9th March 2026
*Prices at 17h30 GMT*
*Thermal Coal:* _March API2 $132.90/mt & API4 $117.00/mt_
*Brent Crude:* _$99.35/bll – Up 7.19%_
*SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe:* _$104.15/mt – Up 0.97%_
*LME 3-Month Copper:* _$12,926/mt – Up 0.47%_
*Granular Sulphur CFR China* _$513.50/mt_
*Chrome Ore South Africa 40%-42% CIF China* _$307.50/mt_
_Commodity markets remained highly volatile as the intensifying conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt energy flows and influence sentiment across the broader commodities complex. Energy markets led the move, while industrial metals responded to a mix of macroeconomic pressure, supply dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty._
*Coal*
Following the weekend escalation in the US–Iran conflict, energy markets experienced significant volatility today. Brent crude surged by as much as 30% intraday while European gas prices rose around 25% before both retraced part of those gains as the session progressed. By the close, front-month Brent crude and short-dated European gas contracts remained higher, finishing approximately 7.5% and 5% up respectively. Coal swaps also found support through the afternoon, with prices across the indices ending roughly $7 higher at points along the curve.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices recorded their largest single-day gain in six years as the conflict in the Middle East continued to escalate. Brent crude briefly surged to around $119.50 per barrel before settling closer to $101, still roughly 9% higher on the day. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate followed a similar pattern, trading above $119 intraday before easing back toward the $100 level.
The rally has been driven by growing disruption to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. Roughly 15 million barrels per day — around 20% of global oil supply — normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but tanker movements have been severely curtailed due to security concerns and the risk of missile and drone attacks.
Several Gulf producers have begun reducing output as export bottlenecks cause domestic storage facilities to fill. Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have all reportedly curtailed production, while attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across the region have further heightened supply concerns. Additional geopolitical developments, including the appointment of a new Iranian supreme leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have reinforced perceptions that the conflict could become prolonged.
Despite sharply higher prices, the Group of Seven countries have so far refrained from releasing strategic oil reserves. Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of crude, primarily to China, and any disruption to these flows could further tighten global supply. The rapid escalation in energy prices has also unsettled financial markets, raising concerns about inflation and its potential impact on economic growth.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-active Dalian contract (I2605) closing 2.28% higher at 784.5 yuan per tonne. Spot prices also increased by 5–15 yuan compared with the previous session. Trading activity remained moderate, with traders showing steady offering sentiment while steel mills continued to purchase primarily to meet immediate requirements.
Both supply and demand conditions weakened during the week. Global iron ore shipments fell sharply to 27.84 million tonnes, down more than 20% week-on-week, largely due to cyclone-related disruptions affecting shipments from Australia and Brazil. Exports from other producing regions, including South Africa and India, also declined. Meanwhile, China’s iron ore arrivals dropped to 23.07 million tonnes, down approximately 5% from the previous week.
On the demand side, the pace of blast furnace restarts has been relatively slow, limiting immediate consumption growth. Nevertheless, structural tightness in certain ore grades and rising freight costs continue to provide underlying price support. As a result, iron ore prices are expected to remain relatively firm but fluctuate within a range in the near term.
*Copper*
Copper prices softened as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical risks and rising energy prices. Oil moving above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 has intensified concerns that higher energy costs could weigh on global economic growth while simultaneously fuelling inflation.
The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has now entered its second week with no signs of de-escalation, adding to risk aversion in financial markets. The strengthening US dollar — supported by expectations that inflationary pressures may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts — also weighed on copper prices.
In China, February inflation reached a three-year high, partly driven by Lunar New Year spending. Despite the broader macro pressures, physical copper markets have shown some resilience. Falling prices have encouraged downstream consumers to purchase on dips, lifting spot activity and supporting physical demand. At the same time, continued arrivals of domestic and previously contracted imported material have kept supply relatively ample, limiting the scope for a sharp tightening in spot premiums.
*Sulphur*
The conflict has also exposed a critical vulnerability in the global copper supply chain: sulphur supply. The Central African Copperbelt — spanning the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia — imports roughly 2 million tonnes of sulphur annually, more than 90% of which originates from the Middle East.
Sulphur is converted into sulphuric acid, an essential reagent used to leach copper from oxide ores, the dominant processing method in the region. The DRC alone imported approximately 1.3–1.4 million tonnes of sulphur last year, while oxide operations typically require between 3.5 and 4.5 tonnes of acid per tonne of copper produced. Acid costs can represent around 16% of operating expenses for such operations.
Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have already begun to impact the market. CIF sulphur prices into Southern Africa have risen to around $520 per tonne, while delivered costs into Kolwezi are approaching $900 per tonne. This implies sulphuric acid costs nearing $300 per tonne, significantly above typical levels.
Should disruptions persist, acid shortages could constrain copper production across the Copperbelt. The situation highlights a broader structural challenge for African mining operations, which remain heavily dependent on imported processing chemicals. Longer term, the industry may need to consider developing local sulphuric acid capacity or diversifying supply chains to reduce exposure to geopolitical chokepoints.
*Chrome*
The chrome ore market remained firm, with spot quotations edging higher. Strong overseas pricing supported market confidence and encouraged traders to maintain firm offers. As ferrochrome producers increased production and raw material consumption improved, enquiries and restocking activity picked up, leading to a gradual recovery in demand.
Lower-priced cargoes have largely been absorbed by the market, leaving spot supply — particularly for mainstream lumpy ore — relatively tight. Traders have consequently shown reluctance to sell at lower levels.
On the supply side, overseas mine quotations remain firm. The restart of ferrochrome production in South Africa has increased demand for raw ore, while export reviews in Zimbabwe have reduced the availability of fines. Rising freight rates from Turkey, linked to geopolitical tensions, have further tightened shipments and increased landed costs.
_In summary, the escalating Middle East conflict continues to dominate commodity markets, driving extreme volatility in energy prices and creating knock-on effects across metals and raw materials. While industrial commodities remain supported by underlying supply-demand dynamics, the near-term direction of markets will largely depend on developments in the energy sector and the stability of key global trade routes._
