24th February 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $106.75/mt & API4 $99.00/mt
Brent Crude: $70.90/bll – Down 0.30%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $98.60/mt – No Change
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,183/mt – Up 2.41%
South Africa 40-42% Chrome Concentrate CIF China: $298/mt – No Change
South Africa Managnese Ore CIF Tianjin 42%Mn-12%Fe: $4.97/dmtu – Up 0.14%
Commodity markets reflected a combination of geopolitical risk, uneven demand recovery and cost pressures, resulting in mixed performance across the energy and bulk materials complex.
Coal
Prices across coal indices declined sharply, led by API2, where prompt contracts fell by nearly $4. European gas also weakened, with the front-month contract dropping more than 4%, while significantly lower offers in the physical DES ARA market added further pressure to API2 swaps. In the Pacific, softer offers in the physical Newcastle market contributed to additional downside across NEWC swaps.
Brent Crude
Oil markets remained supported as new global trade risks emerged following the implementation of a 10% U.S. tariff, while ongoing Middle East tensions continued to sustain a geopolitical risk premium. Brent traded above $70 per barrel, briefly approaching $72 after a steady rally since late February. Analysts note that concerns over potential supply disruptions — particularly related to Iran — are offsetting expectations of a sizeable surplus later this year. Estimates suggest that a full removal of Iranian exports could lift Brent averages toward the low $70s in the second quarter, with significantly higher levels possible should disruptions persist.
During afternoon trading, Brent edged lower to around $70.85 as markets positioned ahead of a third round of U.S.–Iran negotiations. Elevated time spreads underline the strength of the risk premium, with prompt barrels trading at a marked premium to deferred deliveries. While geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant driver, softer macro signals and surplus projections continue to cap upside momentum.
Iron Ore
Dalian iron ore futures continued to trade at lower levels, with the I2605 contract settling at 740.5 yuan per tonne, down 1.79%, while spot prices declined by 5–8 yuan per tonne amid subdued trading activity. Limited trader participation and cautious steel mill procurement kept market sentiment weak.
Supply conditions remained relatively loose. Global shipments rose sharply week on week to 32.29 million tonnes, driven mainly by stronger Australian volumes, while China arrivals increased to 27.75 million tonnes. Demand, however, lagged, with blast furnace shutdowns following a holiday-period incident and incomplete downstream production resumption constraining purchasing appetite. Market attention is now focused on the pace of production recovery and policy signals from the upcoming Two Sessions, with prices expected to remain rangebound at lower levels.
Copper
Copper prices advanced to their highest level in over a week on Tuesday, supported by improved sentiment and firmer demand in China as markets reopened following the Lunar New Year holiday. Three-month LME copper rose 2.2% to $13,155 per tonne, briefly touching $13,196, its strongest level since 12 February.
Despite Monday’s modest decline, LME copper remains up around 22% over the past three months, though still below the late-January record high of $14,527.50. Market sentiment was aided by expectations that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn emergency tariffs could be marginally supportive for China, contributing to gains in Chinese equities.
Physical demand indicators also strengthened, with the Yangshan import premium rising 60% to $53 per tonne. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-active copper contract gained 0.8% to 101,510 yuan per tonne on the first trading day after the holiday. However, rising inventories continue to temper momentum, with LME warehouse stocks increasing to 243,175 tonnes, the highest since March 2025 and up more than 70% year to date.
Chrome Ore
The chrome ore market remained stable, with both futures and spot offers holding near elevated levels and only minor adjustments observed. Trading activity was muted in the immediate post-holiday period, with limited transactions reported. South African 40–42% chrome concentrate offers remained steady at $297 per tonne, while market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of steel tender price guidance.
Manganese Ore
Manganese ore continued to provide firm cost support across the alloy chain, underpinned by resilient overseas offer levels and relatively low domestic port inventories. However, regional power cost divergence is increasingly shaping competitiveness among alloy producers. Northern regions retain cost advantages due to lower electricity tariffs, whereas southern areas face upward pressure following pricing reforms and expected increases in power costs. With both ore supply discipline and rising electricity expenses in play, manganese prices are expected to remain well supported in the near term.
Across commodities, geopolitical risk and structural cost dynamics continue to provide underlying support, even as demand recovery remains uneven. Near-term price direction will depend on developments in energy geopolitics, downstream industrial activity and evolving policy signals across key producing regions.
