23rd February 2026
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Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $107.50/mt & API4 $99.35/mt
Brent Crude: $71.22/bll – Down 0.75%
Dutch TTF Gas: €31.55/mt – Down 1.50%_
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,854.50/mt – Down 0.79%
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Commodity markets opened the week navigating geopolitical developments, policy uncertainty and post-holiday positioning across metals, resulting in mixed price action.
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Coal
The recent strength in API2 eased, with prompt contracts declining by nearly $2. Physical DES ARA for April 2026 delivery also traded slightly below last week’s bid levels, while softer European gas prices added downward pressure to API2 swaps. In the Pacific, reduced support in the physical Newcastle market weighed on sentiment, contributing to declines across shorter-dated NEWC swaps.
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Brent Crude
Brent crude held near six-month highs after rising more than 5% last week, supported by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions ahead of a third round of nuclear negotiations. While Iran has signalled potential concessions in exchange for sanctions relief, uncertainty around possible military escalation continues to underpin prices.
At the same time, shifting U.S. trade policy added to volatility. A Supreme Court decision to strike down emergency tariffs was followed by plans for a temporary 15% import tariff, clouding the macro outlook. Analysts note that despite firm headline prices, softer prompt spreads and physical differentials suggest gains are largely geopolitically driven rather than reflective of tight physical supply.
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European Natural Gas
European gas prices eased modestly as improving LNG inflows and milder weather forecasts offset earlier support from Middle East tensions. The Dutch TTF benchmark traded lower near €31.6/MWh, despite continued strong storage withdrawals.
Europe remains on track for record LNG imports in February, aided by weak Chinese demand that has redirected cargoes toward Europe. Storage levels, however, remain low at roughly 30%, well below seasonal norms, sustaining underlying refill demand. U.S. LNG continues to dominate supply, although regulatory discussions around methane rules could influence future trade dynamics.
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Copper
Copper slipped slightly after recent gains as inventories continued to build and markets awaited the return of Chinese participants following the Lunar New Year holiday. LME copper fell to around $12,913 per tonne, with warehouse stocks rising to their highest level since March 2025.
Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and demand trends also weighed on sentiment. Market focus now shifts to the reopening of Shanghai markets, where investors will assess whether domestic demand strengthens after the holiday period.
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Lead
Lead prices remained subdued during the Lunar New Year holiday, trading within a narrow range as overseas inventories rose sharply. LME stocks increased by over 50,000 tonnes, while domestic demand in China was largely absent due to widespread downstream shutdowns, particularly among lead-acid battery producers.
With smelters maintaining relatively normal operations during the holiday, inventories are expected to continue building in the near term. As Chinese exchanges reopen and downstream activity gradually resumes, demand recovery may provide scope for stabilisation, although elevated stocks are likely to cap prices initially.
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Markets continue to balance geopolitical risk, inventory trends and policy uncertainty. While energy remains supported by strategic tensions, metals are entering a phase of consolidation as liquidity returns and post-holiday demand signals emerge.
