20th February 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $107.50/mt & API4 $99.65/mt
Brent Crude: $71.39/bll – Down 0.38%
Dutch TTF Gas: €31.88/mt – _Down 4.90%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,938/mt – Up 0.94%
Energy markets remained firm into the close, supported by geopolitical tensions, while base metals continued to consolidate amid macro uncertainty and elevated inventories.
Coal
Coal markets were mixed, with Newcastle (NEWC) showing early support before easing into the close, leaving prompt contracts marginally lower. European gas remained highly volatile, with the front-month contract falling by nearly 6%. Despite this weakness, API2 edged higher and the physical DES ARA market saw modestly firmer bidding.
Brent Crude
Brent crude held near six-month highs, trading around $71.60 per barrel and heading for its first weekly gain in three weeks, with both Brent and WTI up roughly 5% on the week. Prices were underpinned by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions after President Trump warned of consequences if a nuclear deal is not reached soon, while Iran signalled a counterproposal may be forthcoming.
With Iran positioned along the Strait of Hormuz — a conduit for around 20% of global oil flows — markets remain sensitive to the risk of disruption, limiting profit-taking ahead of the weekend. Additional support came from a 9 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories and stronger export flows. Nevertheless, longer-term supply concerns persist, with expectations that OPEC+ may resume output increases and forecasts pointing to renewed market surpluses later this year.
European Natural Gas
European gas prices pushed lower today, down almost $5 on the previous session and 0.91% on the week, despite growing concern that Middle East escalation could disrupt LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz at a time when EU storage remains low at around 32% of capacity, well below historical averages.
Separately, the EU plans to fully phase out Russian gas supplies by 2027, though its strategy to diversify and accelerate the energy transition is increasingly shaped by rising imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas. In 2021, roughly half of Europe’s gas demand was met by Russian pipeline deliveries, but following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, dependence was cut by around two-thirds within three years.
This shift has coincided with a sharp increase in U.S. LNG inflows, supported by expanded European regasification capacity. By 2025, the United States accounted for approximately 57% of EU LNG imports — about four times the 2021 level — with projections suggesting this share could approach 80% by 2030. Notably, the U.S. only began exporting LNG in 2016 and has since emerged as the world’s largest supplier.
Copper
Copper edged lower in thin holiday trading, as Lunar New Year closures across Asia and cautious sentiment ahead of Federal Reserve policy signals dampened activity. Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, weighing on demand outlooks for metals.
Following a two-month rally to record highs, copper is consolidating amid weakening physical demand and rising inventories. LME stocks have increased for 27 consecutive sessions — the longest run since 2009 — highlighting the absence of near-term tightness despite supportive longer-term fundamentals.
Geopolitics continues to dominate energy price direction, while metals remain in consolidation as macro signals and inventory trends offset structural demand themes. Near-term momentum will likely hinge on developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations and evolving monetary policy expectations.
