18th February 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $105.50/mt & API4 $99.25/mt
Brent Crude: $69.83/bll – Down 3.57%
Dutch TTF Gas: €31.72/mt – Up 6.15%_
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,904/mt – Up 2.20%
Markets firmed into the close, with geopolitics driving energy prices higher while metals saw selective dip-buying in thin conditions.
Coal
Coal benchmarks extended their advance, with both NEWC and API2 gaining roughly $2 on the day. European gas prices rebounded sharply after last week’s sell-off, with prompt contracts rising close to 7% amid reports of a breakdown in Russia–Ukraine peace talks. Oil also strengthened, with front-month Brent up nearly 4%. Physical DES ARA and Newcastle markets were broadly stable despite the stronger futures tone.
Indonesian coal output reached approximately 55.0 Mt in February 2026, down 5.7% month on month and 11.1% year on year, reflecting stricter RKAB quota enforcement and tighter regulatory oversight. Given Indonesia’s dominant share of global seaborne thermal coal supply, reduced production tightens exportable surplus and underpins benchmark prices. If this production discipline continues into the second half of the year, constrained availability is likely to remain the central driver of market structure.
Brent Crude
Brent rose nearly 3% after U.S.-brokered Ukraine–Russia talks in Geneva ended quickly without progress, reviving uncertainty. At the same time, renewed military activity involving Iran — including naval drills with Russia and temporary restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz — reinforced geopolitical risk.
While earlier optimism around U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions had weighed on prices, attention has shifted back to the potential for escalation. Political analysts suggest a meaningful probability of U.S. strikes on Iran in coming months, though markets remain sensitive to negotiation headlines.
On fundamentals, Russian output reportedly declined for a second month to 9.28m bpd in January, below OPEC+ quotas, though exports remain robust, particularly to China. Asian demand continues to expand, with regional imports projected to reach record levels in February. Inventory data from the API and EIA are now in focus.
Overall, geopolitical uncertainty combined with resilient Asian demand has tempered the previously bearish supply narrative.
European Natural Gas
Dutch TTF rose over 6% as EU storage drawdowns surpassed the entire volume injected last summer, highlighting tightening balances. Net withdrawals since the start of the heating season have exceeded 55 bcm, leaving inventories notably depleted.
Meanwhile, although China has not directly imported U.S. LNG for a year amid trade tensions, Chinese firms continue to purchase U.S. volumes under long-term contracts, frequently redirecting cargoes to Europe, where demand remains firm.
Copper
LME copper gained 1.1% to $12,755.50 per tonne, rebounding from recent lows as investors bought into weakness during holiday-thinned trading. With Shanghai markets closed for Lunar New Year, liquidity remains limited.
Despite the recovery, inventories continue to build. LME stocks have risen for 12 consecutive sessions to 224,625 tonnes, while Comex holdings remain elevated. The cash contract trades at a discount to the three-month forward, indicating no immediate tightness.
Although structural demand themes remain supportive, rising inventories and softer U.S. consumption trends are tempering momentum. Markets are watching whether strategic stockpiling efforts could eventually absorb excess supply.
Energy markets are once again being steered by geopolitics, while metals face a tug-of-war between structural demand and rising inventories. Near-term direction will depend on diplomatic developments, inventory data and the return of full liquidity after the Lunar New Year period.
