2nd February 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $101.50/mt, January API4 $94.00/mt
Brent Crude: $66.31/bll – Down 4.36%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $102.80/mt – _Up 0.24%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,920.50/mt – Down 1.97%
SMM Chrome Conc, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $298.50/mt CIF China (In Bulk)
LME 3-Month Lead $1,967/mt Down 2.09%
_Markets started the week on the back foot as risk premiums unwound across energy and metals, with easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar triggering sharp corrections after January’s rally.
Coal
Energy markets remained highly volatile, with European gas prices tumbling nearly 14% by the close following last week’s sharp rallies, while front-month Brent crude fell close to 5%. A modest easing in U.S.–Iran tensions and more normalised temperatures across large parts of the U.S. helped alleviate concerns around LNG supply, driving the move lower. Coal prices softened in response, though the pullback was notably more muted compared with the broader energy complex.
Brent Crude
Oil prices suffered their steepest one-day fall in over six months, with Brent sliding more than 4.5% to around $66/bbl as geopolitical fears eased. Comments from U.S. President Trump confirming talks with Iran, alongside signals from Tehran that negotiations are possible, reduced concerns over imminent supply disruptions in the Middle East and prompted a rapid unwinding of January’s risk premium. The sell-off was compounded by a broader correction across commodities and a firmer U.S. dollar. Fundamentally, supply conditions remain comfortable. OPEC+ reiterated its plan to keep output unchanged in March, while U.S. production continues to recover from winter-related disruptions and Kazakhstan edges closer to restarting output at Tengiz. Although speculative positioning had turned increasingly bullish in recent weeks, the shift in the geopolitical narrative has left prices vulnerable to further downside should tensions continue to ease.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened, with the benchmark I2605 contract closing down 1.26% at 783 yuan/mt and spot prices falling 5–8 yuan/mt. Trading activity remained subdued as steel mills focused strictly on meeting immediate production needs, while trader participation thinned.
With the pre-holiday restocking cycle nearing completion, buying support is fading just as port inventories remain elevated. At the same time, steel mills face margin pressure and environmental constraints, limiting appetite to lift output. These factors point to a period of softer demand, leaving iron ore prices vulnerable to continued volatility and weakness in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper extended its pullback for a second session as risk appetite deteriorated and demand slowed ahead of China’s Lunar New Year. The SHFE copper contract slumped more than 7%, while LME three-month copper fell nearly 3%, following last week’s record highs driven by speculative buying.
The retreat reflects a broader metals sell-off after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair strengthened the dollar and prompted profit-taking. With Chinese demand seasonally softening and speculative positions being unwound, copper is likely to remain volatile despite still-tight longer-term supply fundamentals.
Chrome
Chrome ore prices held firm, with spot offers at Tianjin Port largely unchanged and overseas futures continuing to edge higher. Winter stockpiling is nearing its end, tempering inquiry activity, but price sentiment remains supported by higher offshore offers and expectations of tighter supply post-holiday. Recent approval of lower electricity tariffs for South African ferrochrome producers may stimulate output, potentially tightening future chrome ore availability. Meanwhile, constrained shipments from Zimbabwe during the rainy season continue to limit supply, underpinning expectations of a stable-to-firm market in the near term.
Lead
Lead prices remained under pressure amid persistent inventory buildup of domestic ingots. As the Chinese New Year approaches, both smelters and battery producers are gradually entering holiday mode, reducing market activity on both the supply and demand sides.
Sentiment was further weighed down by SHFE’s announcement that secondary lead will be introduced as an alternative delivery brand for futures, increasing deliverable supply and dampening near-term price expectations.
Overall, the session marked a clear shift from risk-on to risk-off, with easing geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand factors driving sharp corrections. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets reassess fundamentals heading into the holiday period.
