29th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.80/mt, January API4 $89.65/mt
Brent Crude: $69.61/bll – Up 3.32%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $103.95/mt – _Down 1.66%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,616.50/mt – Up 4.12%
Markets saw a sharp escalation in risk pricing today, with geopolitics once again taking centre stage across energy and metals, driving outsized moves and heightening near-term volatility.
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Coal
Coal prices strengthened materially today, in line with broad gains across the energy complex. Front-month Brent crude ended the session more than 3.5% higher after trading up around 4% intraday, while European gas prices rose by over 5% at parts of the curve. Physical DES ARA markets were better bid, whereas the physical Newcastle market was relatively stable, with NEWC swaps nonetheless moving higher on the back of the positive energy sentiment.
Brent Crude
Oil prices surged more than 4%, pushing Brent back above $70 a barrel, as fears mounted over potential U.S. military action against Iran. Investors are increasingly focused on the risk of supply disruption from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, which pumps around 3.3 mbpd and exports roughly 1.5 mbpd. Analysts warned that while a limited conflict could lift prices toward $80/bbl, any targeting of oil infrastructure or threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could see prices spike toward $100. Reuters reported that Washington is actively weighing strike options, heightening market anxiety. Fundamentals also tightened at the margin. U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week as imports declined and exports rose, while winter storms temporarily reduced Lower-48 production and refinery utilisation. Elsewhere, Kazakhstan is working to restore output at the Tengiz field after last week’s outages, and U.S. producers are gradually bringing wells back online following weather disruptions. For now, however, geopolitical risk is firmly dominating price action.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices edged higher, with the most-traded I2605 contract closing up 1.78% at 798.5 yuan/mt and spot prices rising 5–10 yuan. Trading activity remained muted, with mills buying cautiously and largely on a hand-to-mouth basis. Port inventories continued to build, particularly in coarse fines, while higher-grade material such as IOCJ fines saw comparatively stronger drawdowns on steadier demand. Looking ahead, blast furnace restarts following earlier maintenance are expected to lift hot metal output, improving rigid demand for ore. However, elevated port inventories continue to cap upside. As a result, iron ore is likely to remain rangebound in the near term, with structural supply pressure offset by recovering demand.
Copper (LME)
Copper’s rally accelerated dramatically, with prices surging above $14,000/mt in the biggest one-day gain since 2008, driven largely by aggressive short-covering and continued fund inflows into hard assets amid dollar weakness and geopolitical tension. The move caught many bearish traders off guard, despite persistently high inventories and fragile physical demand. Signs of demand resistance are already emerging, particularly in China, where spot prices have swung to a sharp discount versus futures. Analysts cautioned that elevated prices risk demand destruction and thinner liquidity, especially ahead of the Lunar New Year shutdown, which could act as a catalyst for a correction. While the broader macro narrative remains supportive, volatility is expected to stay extreme.
Overall, today’s session underscored how quickly markets can reprice when geopolitics collide with tight positioning, leaving commodities highly reactive and prone to sharp swings in the days ahead.
