28th January 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.75/mt, January API4 $89.65/mt
Brent Crude: $67.03/bll – Up 0.66%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $105.55/mt – No Change
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,085.50/mt – Up 0.55%
Markets remained highly sensitive to macro signals today, with currency moves, weather disruptions and geopolitical risk continuing to shape price action across energy and metals. ____________________________
Coal
Physical Newcastle markets were largely stable, while bids in the DES ARA market softened somewhat, adding a bearish tone to the shorter-dated API2 contracts.
European gas prices remained volatile, with the front-month contract down around 3% early on before recovering through the session to finish only marginally lower. Oil prices were comparatively steadier, ending the day slightly higher.
Brent Crude
Oil prices climbed to their highest levels since late September as supply disruptions and a weaker U.S. dollar underpinned the market. Severe winter storms temporarily shut U.S. Gulf Coast exports, while outages in Kazakhstan continued to tighten supply, even as officials suggested output at the Tengiz field may resume gradually in the coming week. Support was reinforced by a sharply weaker dollar, making crude more attractive to non-U.S. buyers, and expectations that OPEC+ will maintain its pause on output increases at its February meeting.
Balancing these bullish factors, traders remain alert to potential downside risks, including reports that the U.S. may ease some sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector. Meanwhile, the arrival of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East has kept geopolitical risk elevated, with concerns lingering over possible disruptions from Iran.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices remained under pressure, with the most-traded I2605 contract closing at 783 yuan/mt, down 0.70% on the day, while spot prices slipped 3–5 yuan/mt. Trading activity was subdued, with steel mills continuing to buy cautiously and largely on a hand-to-mouth basis.
Fundamentally, hot metal output edged lower week-on-week as some blast furnace restarts were delayed, falling short of expectations. Looking ahead, rising concerns around environmental controls and safety inspections ahead of the Chinese New Year may further slow production recoveries, weakening demand growth. Against this backdrop of softening demand drivers and ample supply, iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper extended gains alongside aluminium and zinc as the U.S. dollar slid to a four-year low, drawing fresh speculative inflows into base metals. Three-month LME copper rose to $13,087/mt, reflecting strong macro-driven momentum rather than shifts in underlying fundamentals.
Despite higher prices, physical indicators remained soft. Cash copper continued to trade at a steep discount to the three-month contract, and China’s Yangshan import premium fell to an 18-month low, signalling muted spot demand. Analysts noted that Chinese producers have been delivering metal into LME warehouses ahead of the Lunar New Year to reduce risk, a dynamic that could add volatility as liquidity thins.
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Overall, today’s moves highlight how macro forces—currency weakness, weather disruptions and geopolitics—are currently overshadowing fundamentals, keeping markets volatile and reactive in the near term.
