27th January 2026
Prices at 16h45 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.75/mt, January API4 $89.65/mt
Brent Crude: $65.95/bll – Up 1.82%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $105.65/mt –Down 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,032/mt – Down 1.47%
Markets remained choppy today as participants continued to navigate shifting weather, supply and policy signals across the energy and metals complex. Volatility persists, but momentum was uneven, with macro drivers often offsetting fundamentals. ____________________________
Coal
Energy markets stayed volatile, with European gas rebounding early after yesterday’s sell-off before fading through the afternoon to end just over 1% higher. Brent crude also swung sharply, finishing more than 2% higher on the day. Despite the strength in gas and oil, bids in both the DES ARA and physical Newcastle markets softened, weighing on coal. This pushed API2 and NEWC swaps lower, with declines of around $1 seen at parts of the curve.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose around 1% as winter weather disruptions tightened near-term supply. Severe cold in the U.S. knocked out up to 2 million bpd of production over the weekend, while refinery operations were also affected, raising expectations of inventory drawdowns.
Further support came from Kazakhstan, where output at the Tengiz field is recovering more slowly than expected following outages, keeping supply tight despite the CPC pipeline returning to full loading capacity. Geopolitical risk also remained a factor, with U.S. naval deployments in the Middle East and unresolved Russia–Ukraine tensions providing a price floor. Looking ahead, OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain its pause on output increases, reinforcing near-term supply discipline.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures opened weaker but recovered modestly into the close, with the I2605 contract settling at 788 yuan/mt, down 0.51% on the day. Spot prices edged 2–3 yuan higher, while trading activity improved slightly as steel mills actively inquired but continued to buy only as needed.
Maintenance impacts on blast furnaces are easing, pointing to a gradual improvement in demand, and Brazil’s rainy season may curb shipments. However, persistently high port inventories continue to cap any upside. As a result, iron ore prices are likely to remain rangebound in the near term, with inventory pressure offsetting marginal demand improvements.
Copper (LME)
Copper pulled back after flirting with record highs as profit-taking emerged and the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved to curb volatility by raising margin requirements and widening price limits. The most-traded SHFE copper contract fell 0.64%, with traders citing regulatory tightening as a key trigger for the move. The exchange’s intervention follows a sharp rally in copper and aluminium, highlighting authorities’ growing sensitivity to price swings. While longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, near-term price action is likely to stay volatile as speculative positioning is reined in and traders reassess risk.
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Overall, today’s price action underscored how fragile sentiment remains, with weather, geopolitics and regulatory intervention continuing to drive short-term moves across commodities. Near-term direction is likely to remain tactical rather than trend-driven.
