22nd January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.75/mt, January API4 $89.75/mt
Brent Crude: $64.21/bll – Down 1.58%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $105.70/mt – Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,745/mt – Down 0.51%
Markets softened today as geopolitical risk premiums continued to unwind, while metals reacted to shifting sentiment and seasonal demand dynamics. With supply fears easing and inventories rebuilding in places, price action became more selective across the complex.
Coal
Energy markets were relatively calmer than in recent sessions, with European front-month gas easing just over 2% after the sharp rally of the past few days. Front-month Brent crude also softened, falling close to 2% on the day. API2 prices were broadly stable, though longer-dated contracts came under some pressure in line with weakness elsewhere in the energy complex. The physical Newcastle market remained steady.
Brent Crude
Oil prices retreated, reversing recent gains as President Trump dialled back threats around Greenland and signalled a reduced likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran. Brent slipped after rallying earlier in the week on supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, where output at the Tengiz and Korolev fields was halted due to power issues. The easing of geopolitical tension led to a clear deflation of risk premium, with analysts suggesting prices may stabilise around the $60/bbl level. Further pressure came from renewed optimism around a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which could ultimately see sanctions on Russian oil eased. Inventory data added to the softer tone, with U.S. crude stocks rising by just over 3 million barrels last week. In parallel, Russian Urals crude is now being offered to China at record discounts of around $10/bbl to Brent, as Indian demand falls sharply, reshaping Asian crude flows.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures rebounded modestly after early weakness, with the Dalian I2605 contract closing up 0.5% at 786.5 yuan/mt. Spot prices firmed by 2–5 yuan, supported by restocking activity ahead of the Spring Festival, even as overall trading volumes remained moderate. Underlying steel demand remains weak due to adverse weather and seasonal slowdown, with finished steel inventories building at mills. However, recent price declines have eased bearish sentiment, and pre-holiday procurement has provided near-term support, allowing iron ore prices to stabilise despite ample supply.
Copper (LME)
Copper fell to a near two-week low as easing geopolitical anxiety prompted investors to unwind defensive positions. LME three-month copper dropped to around $12,640/t after President Trump ruled out the use of force in Greenland and withdrew tariff threats against European allies, removing a key driver of the recent rally. Market structure has also softened, with the cash copper contract flipping to a discount versus the three-month forward after extreme backwardation earlier in the week. Rising inventories at the London Metal Exchange and a narrowing arbitrage to the U.S. have encouraged metal to flow back into LME warehouses, signalling reduced urgency for prompt supply._
Overall, today’s moves reflect a broader cooling in risk-driven pricing, with energy losing geopolitical support and metals adjusting to softer sentiment and rising inventories. As markets look ahead, fundamentals and seasonal demand are likely to regain influence after a period dominated by political headlines.
