21st January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.75/mt, January API4 $90.00/mt
Brent Crude: $64.88/bll – Down 0.06%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $105.65/mt – Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,808/mt – Up 0.43%
Markets steadied today as geopolitical rhetoric softened at the margins, while metals remained driven by positioning and physical signals rather than outright demand strength. Volatility persists, but risk sentiment was more balanced by the close. ____________________________
Coal
Energy price volatility remained elevated, with front-month European gas surging nearly 11% by the close. Colder weather forecasts across Europe, Asia and North America, materially lower European storage levels versus last year, and ongoing geopolitical tension combined to heighten concerns around LNG availability and reduced supply buffers.
These factors supported coal prices, with API2 moving higher—led by strength in the prompt months—while Newcastle (NEWC) also firmed, albeit to a lesser extent.
In other news, global thermal coal export volumes recorded a rare annual decline in 2025, with shipments down about 3% to roughly 936 million tonnes, the lowest since 2022, as major importers cut purchases. China, India and Japan—historically accounting for around 60% of total imports—reduced their collective coal buys by nearly 50 million tonnes as they increasingly lean on domestic production and cleaner energy sources.
With demand dropping in the traditional heavyweight markets, exporters such as Indonesia and Australia are shifting focus to smaller but growing buyers. Countries like Bangladesh, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam increased coal imports, collectively adding around 13 million tonnes in 2025, highlighting that while global coal trade faces downward pressure, pockets of growth persist in emerging markets.
Brent Crude
Oil prices clawed back earlier losses after President Trump said the U.S. would pursue control of Greenland through negotiations rather than force, easing immediate geopolitical fears. Brent was flat near $64.93/bbl, while WTI edged up to $59.84/bbl, recovering from earlier declines of around 1.5% that were triggered by concerns over renewed trade frictions with Europe.
Support also came from supply-side headlines in Kazakhstan, where the operator of the Tengiz field declared force majeure on CPC pipeline deliveries. Production at two major fields could remain offline for another 7–10 days, underpinning prices despite expectations of a U.S. crude inventory build and keeping the market sensitive to disruption risk.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices remained subdued, with the Dalian I2605 contract closing down 0.32% at 784 yuan/mt and spot prices easing by 1–2 yuan. Trading conditions were cautious, with steel mills focused on hand-to-mouth procurement and traders largely following futures direction.
Fundamentals were little changed. Blast furnace utilisation slipped marginally and hot metal output edged lower, but underlying rigid demand remained stable. Pre-holiday restocking is offering some support, though persistently high port inventories and ample supply continue to cap upside, leaving prices volatile but biased slightly lower in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper advanced, with LME three-month prices up around 0.9% to $12,910/t, supported by commercial hedging demand and a forward curve still in backwardation. While speculative length has been trimmed, near-term spreads continue to cushion downside, indicating tightness in prompt availability.
That said, extreme backwardation eased sharply after Tuesday’s spike, with signs that fresh metal may be delivered into exchange warehouses. LME inventories rose for a sixth consecutive day, suggesting the tightness may prove temporary. Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe remain a risk to demand, keeping gains measured despite supportive curve dynamics. ____________________________
Overall, today’s price action reflected a market recalibrating after recent volatility. Energy found a footing as geopolitical risks moderated slightly, while metals continue to be shaped by positioning, spreads and inventory movements rather than a clear shift in end-user demand.
