20th January 2026
London Commodity News
20th January 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.50/mt, January API4 $89.50/mt
Brent Crude: $64.82/bll – Up 1.38%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $105.50/mt – Down 0.28%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,772/mt – Down 1.43%
Commodity markets were mixed today as supply disruptions, policy uncertainty and stretched pricing levels drove divergent moves across energy and metals. While oil found support from fresh supply risks, bulk commodities remained under pressure and base metals showed signs of demand resistance after a powerful rally.
Coal
Today energy markets remained volatile, with European gas prices up around 2% early in the session before reversing to finish roughly 2% lower on the day. Despite the late pullback, earlier strength provided some support to API2 swaps, which traded around USD 1 firmer across parts of the curve.
Physical DES ARA markets were also slightly stronger, while the physical Newcastle market appeared to stabilise after recent moves. In other news, The IEA’s Coal 2024 Outlook points to continued resilience in African coal markets despite slowing demand in Europe and the U.S. Global coal demand is forecast to rise 1% in 2024 to a record 8.77 billion tonnes, with African consumption increasing to 191 million tonnes, driven overwhelmingly by South Africa. Improved performance at Eskom and reduced load shedding are expected to lift South African coal demand to 165 million tonnes in 2024, with further support coming from the life extension of key coal-fired power plants and rising electricity demand over the next three years. On the supply side, South African production remains constrained by rail and logistics bottlenecks, keeping output broadly flat despite modest growth. Elsewhere in Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe are emerging as increasingly important suppliers, supported by rising steel production and new industrial capacity. The outlook for African coal is increasingly tied to infrastructure rather than mine expansion, with major port and rail projects—particularly in Mozambique—set to shape future export growth. Overall, while global coal demand is expected to plateau by 2027, Africa is likely to play a steady, infrastructure-led role in regional consumption and seaborne supply.
Brent Crude
Brent crude traded higher as temporary production halts in Kazakhstan reignited supply concerns. Tengizchevroil suspended output at the Tengiz and Korolev fields following fires at power facilities, disrupting production from assets that have averaged close to 890,000 bpd this year. The outage adds to a series of recent disruptions in Kazakhstan, including earlier interruptions at the CPC export terminal, and comes at a time when Brent timespreads remain firm, signalling tight prompt physical conditions. A weaker U.S. dollar also provided broader support to oil prices. Attention is now turning to the IEA’s monthly oil market report for updated supply-demand balances. Meanwhile, Venezuelan crude flows are shifting rapidly: the final tankers loaded under the previous Maduro regime are en route to China, likely marking the end of ultra-discounted Venezuelan barrels into the country. Around 24 million barrels remain in floating storage near Southeast Asia, while new offers to China are being made at far narrower discounts, highlighting how sanctioned supply dynamics are normalising.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened, with Dalian futures opening sharply lower before stabilising into a narrow range. The most-traded I2605 contract closed down 1% at 789.5 yuan/mt, while spot prices slipped 3–7 yuan. Trading activity remained subdued, with steel mills sticking to cautious, just-in-time procurement and traders largely following market direction. Fundamentally, blast furnace maintenance had only a marginal impact on demand, with hot metal production broadly stable. As pre-Chinese New Year restocking begins, inventories are expected to shift from ports to mills, but overall supply remains ample. At the same time, recent safety incidents and renewed speculation around environmental and production controls have increased risk aversion. With loose supply and policy uncertainty weighing on sentiment, iron ore is likely to remain under pressure and trade rangebound in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices retreated as industrial consumers showed growing resistance to elevated prices amid swelling exchange inventories. LME three-month copper fell around 0.8% to $12,868/t, extending a pullback from last week’s record high above $13,400. The rally of recent months has been fueled by speculative positioning tied to mine disruptions and U.S.-bound stock flows, but physical demand is now showing signs of fatigue. Inventory levels underscore the tension in the market. SHFE stocks have more than doubled since early December, while U.S. Comex inventories have surged over the past six months. At the same time, extreme volatility in near-dated LME spreads — including a brief $100 premium in the cash market — highlights ongoing dislocation as spot availability tightens even while headline inventories rise. This imbalance suggests copper remains caught between speculative momentum and weakening end-user demand.
Overall, today’s price action reflects a market increasingly driven by short-term disruptions and positioning rather than clean supply-demand fundamentals. Energy remains sensitive to outages and geopolitics, while metals are beginning to test the limits of demand at elevated price levels.
