3rd February 2026
Prices at 17h00 GMT
Thermal Coal: February API2 $99.25/mt & API4 $93.75/mt
Brent Crude: $66.60/bll – Up 0.50%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $102.90/mt – _Up 0.39%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,443/mt – Up 4.24%
Markets were mixed again today, with commodities struggling to find clear direction as easing geopolitical risk competed with lingering supply and demand uncertainties.
Coal
Energy markets were somewhat calmer than the previous session, although volatility persisted. European gas prices fell sharply through much of the day before staging a modest afternoon recovery, leaving the front-month contract around 3% lower. Coal prices continued to soften, with API2 posting the largest declines and NEWC also moving lower, as bids in the physical Newcastle market retreated slightly.
Brent Crude
Brent crude traded in a narrow range around $66.5 per barrel after two consecutive declines, as the market weighed softer geopolitical tensions against ongoing trade uncertainty. Attention remained firmly on the prospect of renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, with President Trump suggesting negotiations could begin soon and reports of U.S. forces repositioning away from Iran easing immediate conflict fears. Trade dynamics also remained in focus, with speculation around a potential U.S.–India deal. Trump indicated tariffs on India could be reduced if New Delhi curtails purchases of Russian oil. While India has not confirmed such a move, its imports of Russian crude have already fallen to a more than three-year low, adding to global volumes seeking a home. OPEC+ meanwhile reaffirmed plans to keep production steady in March, reinforcing the perception of ample supply.
Despite these headwinds, crude clawed back some of Monday’s losses on expectations that a sharp reduction in Indian purchases of Russian oil could tighten physical markets elsewhere. Analysts noted that replacing roughly 1 million bpd of Russian crude would likely be supportive for prices, even as questions remain over whether displaced barrels ultimately find their way into China. ____________________________
Iron Ore
Iron ore extended its volatile but weaker trend, with the DCE’s most-traded I2605 contract closing at 777.5 yuan/mt, down 1.14% on the day. Spot prices slipped a further 2–5 yuan/mt as traders sold largely in line with market moves and steel mills remained firmly on the sidelines. Trading activity stayed subdued, with limited inquiry from end users. On the fundamentals, port inventories continued to build, with stocks across 35 major ports rising to 153 million tonnes, up 2.77 million tonnes week-on-week. While average daily port discharge volumes edged slightly higher, the increase was marginal and insufficient to offset incoming supply. With previously shipped cargoes still arriving and demand showing signs of fatigue, the inventory accumulation trend is unlikely to reverse in the near term, keeping pressure on prices. ____________________________
Copper (LME)
Copper rebounded after a sharp pullback from last week’s record highs, as a broader metals sell-off led by gold and silver began to stabilise. LME copper rose as much as 2% to around $13,150 per tonne, recovering part of a steep decline seen since Thursday. The bounce was supported by dip-buying from Chinese investors and a return of fabricators and manufacturers ahead of the Lunar New Year, as downstream players took advantage of lower prices to replenish inventories. That said, analysts cautioned that near-term upside momentum has softened, with uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy and easing risks of an LME squeeze. While short-term volatility is likely to persist, longer-term support remains in place due to ongoing mine disruptions globally.
Overall, markets continue to trade nervously, with sentiment highly sensitive to shifts in geopolitics, trade policy and physical supply signals as February gets underway.
