12th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.00/mt, January API4 $88.50/mt
Brent Crude: $63.63/bll – Up 0.47%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $108.20/mt – Down 0.46%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,203/mt – Up 1.46%
Chrome Ore, South African (40%-42%Cr2O3) $269.00/mt CIF China
Manganese Ore, South African (Mn42%Fe12%) $4.85/dmtu CIF North China
LME 3-Month Lead $2,059/mt – Up 0.46%
Markets opened the week with a cautious tone as investors weighed easing geopolitical fears against firm demand signals across key industrial and energy markets. While oil gave back some of last week’s gains, metals continued to find support from Chinese policy expectations and tightening physical fundamentals.
Coal
Coal swaps saw a quieter session, with API2 ending largely unchanged after finding some modest support earlier in the day. European gas prices moved higher and remain volatile, providing a contrasting backdrop to the more stable coal market.
Newcastle (NEWC) swaps edged slightly firmer, although the physical Newcastle market remained steady. API4 swaps also held their recent gains, ending the session broadly unchanged.
Brent Crude
Oil prices edged lower as Iran signalled that domestic unrest was “under total control,” easing immediate fears of supply disruption after a volatile weekend. This tempered some of the risk premium that had driven a strong rally late last week, when Brent and WTI rose more than 3%. At the same time, attention shifted to Venezuela, where preparations are under way to resume exports following political change, with up to 50 million barrels expected to be transferred to the United States. Despite this, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains supportive. U.S. officials are considering further options on Iran, while Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure keep the risk of tighter sanctions alive. Goldman Sachs still expects oil prices to drift lower through 2026 on rising supply and swelling OECD inventories, but analysts at Capital Economics warn that any serious disruption to Iranian exports could trigger a sharp, albeit temporary, $15–$20 per barrel spike.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures firmed modestly, with the most-traded Dalian contract closing up 0.92% at CNY822.5/mt , while spot prices rose slightly. Trading activity remained moderate, with steel mills largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, even as traders offered material at firmer levels. Supply dynamics remain mixed. Global shipments fell sharply week-on-week, but arrivals at China’s main ports increased, keeping inventories elevated. Looking ahead, the start of pre-Lunar New Year restocking should provide downside support, though ample port stocks are likely to cap any sharp upside, leaving prices oscillating near current high levels.
Copper (LME)
Copper extended its rebound, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing optimism around Chinese demand. Shanghai copper jumped nearly 3% and LME three-month copper climbed above $13,150 per tonne, remaining close to last week’s record highs after Beijing signalled fresh fiscal and financial measures to stimulate domestic consumption. Additional support came from supply-side concerns, including lower output at Chile’s Codelco, and continued merger speculation following Rio Tinto’s talks with Glencore. Broader base metals also benefited from the softer dollar, with nickel and tin posting strong gains on supply and demand concerns.
Chrome
Chrome ore prices continued to rise as higher futures levels and stronger South African concentrate prices lifted ferrochrome production costs. Improved profitability at stainless steel mills and higher January production schedules provided a solid base for demand, reinforcing price support across major origins. Trading activity was firm as winter stockpiling gathered pace and rising futures offers boosted sentiment. Policy changes in Zimbabwe have tightened supply, particularly for concentrates, while lump ore remained well supported by limited availability. Futures prices moved higher again, underlining a positive short-term market bias.
Manganese
Manganese ore markets remained well supported by rising overseas offers, with major miners lifting February prices to China. Stronger international pricing fed through to higher domestic spot values, while SiMn futures strength improved sentiment and encouraged buying interest from alloy producers. However, the picture remains uneven. While northern Chinese demand was steady, southern buyers stayed cautious, leading to rising inventories at Qinzhou Port as arrivals outpaced consumption. Prices are likely to remain firm in the near term, but persistent weakness in southern demand and growing port stocks could eventually trigger a corrective pullback.
Lead
Some smelters kept scrap battery purchase prices steady or slightly higher to secure feedstock, while suppliers became more willing to sell after a period of reluctance. Large smelters in central and eastern China reported relatively comfortable arrivals, easing immediate raw-material concerns. However, downstream battery demand remains weak as end-market sales continue to struggle, pushing operating rates lower and limiting lead ingot procurement. As a result, finished lead inventories are building at both primary and secondary smelters, which is likely to cap any near-term price recovery and raises the risk of further pressure after the next delivery cycle.
Overall, commodity markets continue to be driven by a blend of geopolitical risk, Chinese stimulus expectations and tightening supply in key raw materials. While volatility remains elevated, underlying fundamentals across metals and energy suggest prices will stay supported in the near term.
