13th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.25/mt, January API4 $89.25/mt
Brent Crude: $65.75/bll – Up 2.94%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $108.50/mt – Up 0.37%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,150/mt – Down 0.31%
Global commodity markets closed with a firmer tone, led by energy on heightened geopolitical risk and by base metals on tightening physical availability. Supply security remains the dominant theme as investors weigh near-term disruptions against longer-term flow adjustments.
Coal
Coal prices moved higher, led by strong buying interest in Newcastle (NEWC) swaps from early in the session, which pushed longer-dated contracts up by nearly USD 4 by the close. This occurred despite a largely unchanged physical Newcastle market.
European gas prices were steadier after recent volatility, while a roughly 2.5% rally in oil added to the broader bullish tone across the energy complex.
Brent Crude
Oil prices extended their rally as rising tensions around Iran and renewed security risks in the Black Sea outweighed concerns about additional Venezuelan supply. Brent rose nearly 2% to around USD 65.10/bbl, its highest level since mid-November, as unrest in Iran and U.S. threats of tougher action added a clear geopolitical risk premium to prices. Barclays estimates this risk has already added USD 3–4 per barrel. Further support came from reports of drone strikes on tankers near Russia’s CPC export terminal and a widening Brent–Dubai spread, signaling tighter prompt supply. These factors are counterbalanced by the prospect of Venezuelan barrels returning to the market, but for now geopolitical risk continues to dominate price action.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures recovered from an early dip to close only marginally lower, with the most-active I2605 contract settling at 819.5 yuan per tonne and spot prices easing by 0–5 yuan. Trading remained measured, with steel mills sticking to just-in-time purchases and overall market activity subdued. Blast-furnace maintenance continues to weigh on hot-metal output, with SMM estimating this week’s impact at just over 2.0 million tonnes. Although pre-holiday restocking has begun, demand is steady rather than strong, keeping prices in a largely sideways range for now.
Copper (LME)
Copper availability on the LME tightened sharply as on-warrant stocks fell 22% in a single day to just under 90,000 tonnes, the lowest level in six months. The decline followed large cancellation notices as traders continue to move metal out of Asia and into the U.S., where copper commands a significant premium ahead of possible import tariffs. This ongoing shift has left U.S. Comex inventories up more than 400% year-on-year, while shortages elsewhere are increasingly visible in LME spreads. The cash-to-three-month premium jumped to USD 64 per tonne, underlining the strain on deliverable supply and reinforcing the bullish backdrop that pushed prices above USD 13,000 per tonne last week.
Overall, today’s moves highlight a market increasingly driven by security of supply rather than simple balance-sheet metrics. With geopolitics reshaping energy flows and copper stocks being drawn into the U.S., volatility and regional price dislocations look set to remain a defining feature in the days ahead.
