14th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.50/mt, January API4 $89.25/mt
Brent Crude: $65.91/bll – Up 0.67%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $107.55/mt – Down 0.51%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,237/mt – Up 0.55%
Markets closed on a firmer footing, with energy driven by geopolitical risk and base metals holding elevated levels on tight supply and speculative demand. While physical fundamentals remain mixed, financial flows and security-of-supply concerns continue to dominate price formation.
Coal
Newcastle (NEWC) swaps extended their gains, with strong buying interest in the morning lifting prices by around USD 2 before some of the move was pared back later in the session. The physical Newcastle market was also well supported early on, with firmer bids helping to underpin the paper market.
European gas and oil added to the broader energy strength, with front-month gas up more than 2% and oil rising close to 1.5%. Despite this, API2 swaps moved lower, decoupling from the wider energy complex.
Brent Crude
Brent crude extended its rally to a fifth straight session, rising to around USD 66.30/bbl, the highest level since early October, as unrest in Iran and the risk of U.S. involvement kept a strong geopolitical risk premium in the market. Reports that U.S. personnel were advised to leave a key air base in Qatar, alongside President Trump’s public support for Iranian protesters, reinforced fears that Iran’s roughly 3.3 million barrels per day of crude production could be disrupted. These concerns outweighed otherwise bearish inventory data showing a 5.3 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks. At the same time, Venezuela has begun reversing production cuts and restarting exports, with two supertankers already departing carrying close to 3.6 million barrels in what appears to be the first leg of a broader 50-million-barrel deal with Washington. While Venezuelan supply is returning, Middle East risk remains the dominant driver for now.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices saw a choppy session, weakening early before recovering into the close. The Dalian I2605 contract ended around 820 yuan per tonne, little changed on the day, while spot prices were down 0–5 yuan. Trading activity remained subdued, with steel mills sticking to cautious, just-in-time procurement and traders largely following the market. On the fundamentals, blast furnace utilisation edged lower as maintenance activity increased, trimming hot metal output despite the broader recovery in production. Pre-Lunar New Year restocking is beginning to provide a floor to demand, but high inventories and thin spot liquidity are limiting upside. As a result, prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a relatively tight, elevated range.
Copper (LME)
Copper briefly hit another record as speculative demand continued to chase tightening supply, before easing slightly to around USD 13,176/t. Prices have risen more than 40% over the past year, supported by mine disruptions, fears of a supply deficit and the ongoing diversion of metal into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs, which has drained availability elsewhere. While financial demand remains strong, there are growing concerns that prices at these levels could begin to curb industrial consumption. China’s demand appears stable, with some pre-holiday restocking under way, and Shanghai copper also closed near record highs. Technically, however, a move back below USD 13,000 would be an important signal that momentum is starting to fade.
Overall, markets remain in a high-volatility regime where geopolitics and capital flows are exerting more influence than traditional inventory data. With oil pricing in Middle East risk and copper stocks being pulled into the U.S., regional dislocations and sharp price swings are likely to persist.
