15th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $97.30/mt, January API4 $89.25/mt
Brent Crude: $63.54/bll – Down 4.48%
Iron Ore SGX 62%Fe: $107.25/mt – Down 0.14%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,116.50/mt – Down 0.53%
Markets saw a sharp reversal in risk sentiment today, with energy prices retreating as geopolitical tensions eased while base metals consolidated after an exceptional rally. Headlines out of the Middle East and shifting policy signals from Washington once again proved to be the dominant drivers.
Coal
Price action was more subdued in coal markets, with API2 ending the session broadly unchanged while Newcastle (NEWC) found modest support, helped by slightly firmer bids in the physical Newcastle market.
European gas prices moved sharply higher, with the front-month contract up more than 6% on colder weather forecasts and stronger expected demand. Oil remained volatile, with front-month Brent falling around 4.5% by the close.
Brent Crude
Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump said violence in Iran was easing and that executions linked to the recent protests were no longer expected. Brent dropped more than 3% to around USD 64.30/bbl, while WTI fell to just under USD 60, unwinding part of the previous day’s geopolitical risk premium. The comments reduced fears of imminent supply disruption after markets had rallied earlier in the week on concerns of possible U.S. military action and Iranian retaliation. Trump said he had received assurances from senior sources in Iran that killings had stopped and that no executions were planned, while Iran’s foreign minister also publicly denied any such intentions. With immediate escalation risk fading, traders moved to lock in gains, though underlying geopolitical uncertainty in the region remains elevated.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices weakened, with the most-traded I2605 contract closing down 1.03% at 813 yuan per tonne and spot prices slipping 2–5 yuan. Traders remained active but cautious, with steel mills buying only for rigid demand, leaving overall sentiment subdued. Port inventories continued to rise, reaching 115.7 million tonnes, as earlier declines in global shipments have yet to feed through to lower arrivals. At the same time, hot-metal output remains high and steel inventories are falling, which provides a degree of demand-side support. The market is therefore caught between rising supply and steady consumption, leaving prices fluctuating at elevated levels without a clear directional break.
Copper (LME)
Copper eased from record highs as the dollar strengthened and concerns about imminent U.S. tariffs on critical minerals faded. Shanghai copper fell just over 1%, while LME prices held above USD 13,000 per tonne after a powerful rally that has lifted prices more than 20% since November. Although the flow of copper into the United States continues to tighten supply elsewhere, speculative positioning has become the dominant driver. Goldman Sachs warned that the bulk of the rally may already be behind the market, with easing fundamentals expected to pull LME prices back toward USD 11,000 per tonne by late 2026.
Overall, today’s moves reflect a market that has become highly sensitive to shifting political signals and speculative flows. With energy prices reacting to easing geopolitical fears and metals pausing after a historic surge, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature in the days ahead.
