8th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 $98.00/mt, January API4 $87.75/mt
Brent Crude: $61.14/bll – Up 1.92%
Iron Ore: $107.95/mt – Down 0.14%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,714.50/mt – Down 1.44%
Commodity markets saw a pause in momentum today as investors weighed supportive fundamentals against rising geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Energy markets reacted to shifting inventory signals and sanctions risk, while metals saw profit-taking after recent strong rallies.
Coal
API2 and Newcastle (NEWC) prices again diverged today, with API2 coming under pressure and dragged lower by weakness in European gas markets. Gas prices remained volatile, with the front-month contract ending the session more than 3% lower after trading at even weaker levels earlier in the day. The physical Newcastle market was comparatively stable, offering some support, and NEWC swaps finished the day marginally firmer despite broader energy market softness.
Brent Crude
Brent crude rebounded sharply, rising by as much as 2% to trade above USD 61/bbl after two consecutive sessions of losses. The move was driven by a larger-than-expected 3.8 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories, which challenged expectations for a build and highlighted firmer near-term physical balances. Dip-buying emerged following the EIA release, helping prices recover despite broader concerns around global supply.
However, gains were capped by rising stocks at Cushing and sizeable builds in gasoline and distillates. Developments around Venezuela remained a key overhang, with Washington signalling tighter control over crude sales and stepping up enforcement through tanker seizures. While President Trump’s comments on potential transfers of Venezuelan crude to the U.S. reinforced longer-term supply uncertainty, execution risks and logistics limited immediate downside pressure. Softer U.S. labour data continued to underpin demand expectations via a more accommodative Federal Reserve outlook.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices pulled back after a four-session rally as investors locked in profits with prices approaching the psychologically important USD 110/t level. The benchmark February contract on the Singapore Exchange eased to around USD 108/t after reaching its highest level since late September, with caution creeping back into the market following the rapid ascent.
While optimism around Chinese demand remains supported by expectations of looser monetary policy, the pace of the rally has raised concerns of potential government intervention, echoing measures seen in 2023. Elevated prices also curbed spot buying appetite among steel mills, with transaction volumes at major Chinese ports falling sharply. Broader metals weakness added to the cautious tone, even as coking coal and coke continued to rally on talk of potential production cuts by Chinese producers facing margin pressure.
Copper (LME)
Copper retreated from record highs as traders took profits after a swift and extended rally. Prices on the London Metal Exchange fell in tandem with nickel and zinc, trimming gains accumulated over recent weeks amid a surge of speculative and investment-driven buying in China’s domestic metals markets.
Despite the pullback, longer-term sentiment toward copper remains constructive, supported by structural supply tightness and electrification-driven demand. However, the speed of the recent move has heightened near-term downside risk, with market participants wary that sharp rallies can be followed by equally abrupt corrections as positioning is reduced.
Overall, markets appear to be entering a consolidation phase, with investors increasingly selective after strong price moves across several commodities. Near-term direction is likely to hinge on inventory trends, policy signals from China and the U.S., and the evolution of geopolitical risks affecting global supply chains.
