7th January 2026
Prices at 17h25 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 – $98.55/mt, January API4 – $87.50/mt
Brent Crude: $59.96/bll – Down 1.22%
Iron Ore: $108.90/mt – Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,881/mt – Down 2.64%
Commodity markets were mixed today as investors balanced easing monetary expectations against shifting geopolitical and supply-side dynamics. Energy markets remained sensitive to prospective supply additions, while bulk and base metals continued to draw support from improving demand expectations in China and structural tightness in physical supply chains.
Coal
Coal markets were more settled today, with both API2 and Newcastle (NEWC) prices ending the session little changed. European gas prices remained volatile, rising sharply earlier in the day before retracing most of the move to finish near flat by the close.
In the physical Newcastle market, some support emerged as bid levels improved and offers were pulled back, although this provided only limited support to the NEWC paper market.
Brent Crude
Brent crude traded just below USD 60.60/bbl as expectations of rising supply weighed on prices. Market focus centred on statements from President Trump indicating that Venezuela could transfer 30–50 million barrels of crude to the United States, alongside signs of progress towards a U.S.–Ukraine security arrangement that may ultimately ease constraints on Russian exports. These factors reinforced near-term supply concerns, pushing both Brent and WTI modestly lower.
Partially offsetting this pressure, U.S. labour data supported expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, offering some reassurance on the demand outlook. ADP figures pointed to steady but subdued hiring, while API data showed a larger-than-expected 2.8 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories. Nevertheless, supply narratives dominated sentiment, keeping oil prices capped despite supportive macro signals.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures extended their rally, reaching multi-month highs on improving sentiment around Chinese demand. The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose sharply, supported by expectations of looser monetary policy after Beijing reiterated its intention to maintain ample liquidity through rate and reserve requirement cuts. Strength was mirrored on the Singapore Exchange, where benchmark prices also advanced.
Fundamentally, blast furnace utilisation and hot-metal output in China continued to recover, while expectations of pre-Lunar New Year restocking provided additional support. Although spot transactions remained cautious due to the rapid pace of price increases, strong market sentiment and low in-plant inventories at steel mills continue to underpin iron ore prices in the near term.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices consolidated near record levels following the previous session’s sharp rally. LME three-month copper eased slightly after setting a new all-time high, while Shanghai futures held close to recent peaks. Citi raised its near-term price target to USD 14,000/t on the back of strong momentum, though it maintained its 2026 average forecast at USD 13,000/t and continues to view early 2026 as a potential cyclical high without new catalysts.
Physical market dynamics remain supportive. China has effectively become a net exporter of refined copper as CME premiums continue to pull metal into the U.S., draining bonded stocks at Chinese ports and tightening availability elsewhere. Rising physical premiums in Europe and Asia, alongside swelling CME inventories and a shortage of LME-deliverable brands, continue to distort traditional inventory signals and underpin the broader copper complex.
Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to policy signals and supply re-routing across regions. While energy prices are grappling with prospective supply increases, metals continue to find support from policy easing expectations and structural dislocations in physical flows. Volatility is likely to persist as these competing forces continue to reshape near-term price direction.
