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Strait of Hormuz

LCB Market Brief – 23 April 2026

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London Commodity News

*Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)*

  • *Brent Crude:* $102.93/bbl, up 1.00% — elevated, with sustained supply disruption risk
  • *Coal (API2 April):* $102.35/mt — supported, tracking strength across the energy complex
  • *Coal (API4 April):* $105.50/mt — firm, with export sentiment holding
  • *Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe):* $107.20/mt, up 0.05% — stable, underpinned by demand and tighter supply
  • *Copper (LME 3M):* $13,442/mt, down 1.60% — softer, with macro pressure offsetting supply risks
  • *Manganese Ore (42% Mn CIF China):* $5.40/mtu — firm, supported by rising costs and import demand

*What Matters Today*

  • Markets remain firmly supply-driven, with disruption to key trade routes dominating sentiment
  • Energy continues to lead, with oil holding above $100/bbl on sustained supply constraints
  • Coal is supported by energy strength, though physical markets remain well supplied
  • Metals are mixed, balancing cost support with softer near-term demand signals

*Coal*

Coal markets extended gains in line with the broader energy complex, supported by ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of progress toward de-escalation.

Front-month Brent crude and European gas rose by approximately 1.5% and 2% respectively, providing support to coal swaps, with Newcastle once again leading the move higher. However, the physical Newcastle market remains adequately supplied, limiting upside in the prompt portion of the curve.

Coal continues to track energy directionally, though with more muted price action. While sentiment remains supportive, physical availability—particularly in the Pacific—continues to cap near-term gains.

*Coal Curves (LCB Data)*

  • *API2*: Supported by broader energy strength
  • *API4:* Holding firm, reflecting stable export dynamics
  • *Spread:* Continues to reflect freight and regional supply factors

*Trade Insight*

  • Energy markets remain the primary driver, with coal following oil-led sentiment
  • Physical oversupply in parts of the coal market is capping prompt upside despite stronger derivatives
  • Metals are increasingly influenced by input costs, particularly sulphur and energy
  • Shipping disruption remains the core transmission channel across commodities

*Market Focus: Brent Crude*

Oil markets remain elevated, with Brent holding above $100/bbl as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz intensifies.

The Strait is now effectively blockaded by both the United States and Iran, with reports suggesting more than 800 vessels are stranded on either side. This has reinforced concerns over a sustained and material supply shock, with estimates indicating potential disruption of up to 13 million barrels per day.

Tensions have escalated further through reciprocal vessel seizures and increased military activity. Donald Trump has signalled a more assertive approach to securing the route, while Iran has moved to assert greater control over transit, including proposals to introduce tolling mechanisms.

Despite the extension of a ceasefire reducing immediate infrastructure risks, the continued closure of the Strait remains the dominant factor underpinning prices. Until access is restored, oil is expected to remain elevated and highly sensitive to developments in shipping flows and military activity.

*Additional Markets*

*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices eased slightly, with futures and spot prices softening despite supportive fundamentals. Demand remains firm, driven by restocking ahead of China’s Labour Day holiday and sustained steel output. At the same time, reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil have tightened port inventories, providing underlying support. The market remains balanced, with near-term weakness offset by strong demand and constrained supply.

*Copper*
Copper retreated from recent highs, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. While supply-side concerns—particularly around sulphuric acid availability—continue to provide support, signs of softer spot demand in China have emerged, including a shift from premiums to discounts. The market is currently trading cautiously, balancing cost pressures with evolving demand conditions.

*Manganese Ore*
Manganese ore markets remain firm, supported by rising imports into China and increasing cost pressures. South African supply has driven higher volumes, while elevated electricity and freight costs continue to push CIF prices higher. Demand recovery remains uneven, with regional variations in alloy production, but overall sentiment is supported by cost-driven pricing dynamics.

*Market Regime*

*Supply shock / Elevated energy / Supported bulk / Mixed metals*

Closing View

The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the defining feature across commodity markets, sustaining elevated energy prices and reinforcing supply-side risk. Oil is firmly in control of broader sentiment, with coal and other energy-linked commodities following directionally.

While bulk commodities remain supported by underlying demand and tightening supply, metals are increasingly caught between rising input costs and softer near-term consumption signals. Until there is clarity on the reopening of key trade routes and the trajectory of geopolitical developments, markets are likely to remain volatile and driven by supply risk rather than purely fundamental demand trends.

End of Day Market Brief

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London Commodity News

8 April 2026

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)

  • API2 (April): $107.25mt
  • API4 (April): $105.00/mt
  • Brent Crude: $94.98/bbl, down 13.03%
  • SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.40/mt, down 0.70%
  • LME 3-Month Copper: $12,681.50/mt, up 3.07%
  • Chrome South African 40%–42% Cr: $319/mt CIF China

Market Overview

  • Markets have moved into broad geopolitical de-escalation mode following the announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
  • The sharpest reaction has come in energy, where crude has repriced lower as worst-case Hormuz disruption scenarios have been stripped out.
  • Even so, the risk premium has not disappeared entirely, as shippers and refiners are still waiting for practical clarity on safe passage, routing and backlog clearance.
  • Base metals have responded more selectively, with improved sentiment helping copper, while bulk markets such as iron ore remain constrained by softer underlying demand signals.

Coal Curves (LCB Data)

API2 / API4 Curve (Midday)

  • API2: Firmer prompt pricing, though broader conviction across the curve remains limited.
  • API4: Holding below API2, with relative weakness reflecting regional dynamics.
  • Spread: Key to watch whether easing geopolitical tension feeds through into freight and begins to compress Atlantic versus export market pricing.

Trade Insight

  • The ceasefire has removed the most extreme upside scenario for oil, but logistics normalisation is lagging price normalisation, which remains critical for freight-sensitive commodities.
  • Energy has repriced rapidly; metals are now likely to revert to micro-driven fundamentals, particularly Chinese demand and inventory signals.
  • If the ceasefire holds, the next phase shifts from crisis response to speed of physical market normalisation across shipping and trade flows.

Market Focus: Brent Crude

Brent crude has fallen sharply following confirmation of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with the market rapidly unwinding the geopolitical premium built around the Strait of Hormuz. The move reflects a reassessment of immediate supply disruption risk across one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

However, uncertainty remains. Shipping activity has yet to fully normalise, backlogs persist, and key operational details around safe passage remain unresolved. The ceasefire itself is temporary, leaving the market exposed to renewed volatility should tensions re-escalate.

As a result, while pricing has adjusted lower, a residual risk premium is likely to remain until physical flows and transit conditions return to a more stable footing.

Additional Markets

Iron Ore: Prices softened modestly, with cautious sentiment persisting across both futures and spot markets. While steel production remains supportive, subdued trading activity and elevated inventories continue to cap upside.

Copper: Copper rallied strongly, supported by improved risk sentiment and resilient physical demand indicators. However, buying remains measured, suggesting that sustained upside will require continued confirmation from inventories and real demand.

Chrome: Chrome remained broadly stable, with balanced pricing reflecting mixed availability and moderate demand. Any easing in freight costs could introduce mild downward pressure, though the near-term outlook remains steady.

Market Regime

Post-crisis repricing / Softer energy complex / Selectively firmer base metals

Closing View

The speed of the repricing across energy markets highlights how quickly geopolitical risk can unwind once de-escalation appears credible. However, the market is not yet operating under normal conditions. Energy has adjusted first, while other commodities are now reverting to underlying fundamentals.

The key question from here is not whether the risk premium has fallen, but whether physical markets—shipping, freight, and trade flows—can normalise in line with price. Until that is clear, markets are likely to remain reactive and sensitive to further developments.

Full curves, downloadable data and historical access available via LCB Intelligence.

Hormuz Reopens, But Markets Remain on Edge

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Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have shifted from acute disruption to fragile stabilisation, following the announcement of a proposed two-week ceasefire. While the headline has injected a degree of confidence into financial markets, the physical reality remains far more constrained. Vessel movements have not normalised, operators remain cautious, and the region continues to function under heightened risk rather than genuine stability. The situation is best characterised as a pause in escalation rather than a resolution.

The scale of disruption is significant. More than 800 vessels remain trapped across the Gulf, with an estimated 20,000 seafarers still onboard awaiting safe passage. The backlog is heavily skewed towards energy cargoes, with crude and refined product tankers forming the bulk of stranded tonnage, alongside LNG and LPG carriers. This concentration matters. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy flows, historically accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, and any sustained interruption has immediate consequences for pricing, logistics and supply chains.

Markets have responded quickly to the ceasefire announcement, with crude prices retreating sharply from recent highs as the immediate risk of a full supply shock eased. However, the physical oil market remains under strain. Exports from the Gulf have been materially reduced over recent weeks, and the process of restoring flows is neither immediate nor straightforward. Infrastructure constraints, operational delays and continued security concerns mean that even under a ceasefire, the system will take time to rebalance. This divergence between paper market reaction and physical market reality is now a defining feature of the current environment.

Gas markets face a similar dynamic. LNG cargoes remain stranded, and Asian buyers in particular are exposed to prolonged supply delays. Even if transit resumes in a limited capacity, the backlog of vessels and the hesitancy of shipowners to re-enter the region will keep the market tight in the near term. European gas prices have reacted to easing geopolitical risk, but remain sensitive to any renewed disruption or competition for alternative cargoes.

Freight and insurance markets are likely to experience the most persistent dislocation. Tanker availability has tightened significantly, and war risk premiums have risen sharply. Even with a partial reopening, shipowners will continue to price in elevated risk, and charterers should expect higher freight rates and longer lead times. This extends beyond energy markets, with dry bulk and container segments also facing indirect pressure through increased costs, rerouting and scheduling inefficiencies.

For metals and industrial commodities, the impact is more indirect but still material. Lower oil prices provide some relief from an inflationary standpoint and support broader risk sentiment, yet higher logistics costs and ongoing supply chain friction continue to weigh on physical trade. The result is a market where financial conditions appear to improve more quickly than underlying operational realities.

The coming days will be critical. The key question is not whether the Strait reopens in principle, but whether confidence returns sufficiently for normal shipping activity to resume. This will depend on the durability of the ceasefire, the willingness of shipowners and insurers to re-engage, and the outcome of ongoing diplomatic discussions aimed at securing longer-term guarantees for safe passage.

In its current form, the market is no longer pricing a worst-case scenario, but neither is it pricing normality. The geopolitical premium embedded in energy markets has narrowed, yet it remains firmly in place. Freight and insurance costs are unlikely to retrace at the same pace as crude, and physical dislocations will persist even if tensions continue to ease.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has therefore entered a transitional phase. The immediate crisis may have been contained, but the system remains under strain. For commodity markets, this is not a return to equilibrium, but a shift into a more uncertain and operationally complex environment where risk remains elevated and recovery is far from assured.

Hormuz Isn’t Fixed—It’s Just Breathing