Menu

Freight

LCB Weekly Update by Nexus – 07/05/26

, ,

Activity across the Far East and Southeast Asia was subdued this week, largely due to public holidays in China and Japan. Enquiry levels declined noticeably, although rates remained relatively firm, supported by a tight tonnage list. There is some expectation that this tightness may prove temporary, with both vessel availability and cargo volumes likely to increase once market participants return, leaving near-term direction uncertain.

In the Indian Ocean, tonnage availability increased as ongoing US–Iran discussions continued to weigh on sentiment. Market participants largely adopted a cautious, wait-and-see approach, while some operators have established alternative routing strategies to and from the Red Sea. However, elevated insurance premiums continue to impact the region. Limited cargo availability has led to heightened competition among owners. Further south, the South African market remained broadly balanced, although an anticipated influx of open vessels may place downward pressure on rates in the coming weeks.

In the Mediterranean and Black Sea, an oversupply of Handysize tonnage continues to cap rate upside. The upcoming Russian grain season is expected to absorb part of this excess capacity, with Russian loadings likely to command a premium. Fertiliser movements, particularly linked to Indian government tenders, have provided some support across both Handysize and Supramax segments. Congestion in parts of the western basin has marginally tightened supply, though this has had limited impact amid generally weak cargo demand.

The US Gulf market softened slightly week-on-week, with reduced grain enquiry contributing to a weaker tone. Tonnage availability remains stable, but limited fresh cargo has increased competition among owners, with some accepting lower rates. A number of vessels are now considering repositioning towards South America in search of improved opportunities.

On the North Coast of South America, weather-related disruptions have slowed cargo flows, contributing to softer rates. This has been compounded by an increase in ballasting vessels from the Caribbean, as weaker US Gulf conditions prompt repositioning. In contrast, the East Coast South America market has seen firmer rates, supported by increased grain export activity. In West Africa, a modest rise in cargo activity has been observed, primarily from deferred stems linked to previously high bunker costs. However, a persistent gap between owner and charterer expectations continues to limit deal flow.

Bunker prices have eased from recent peaks but remain elevated in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, alongside tighter global inventories and declining US crude and product stocks. Physical bunker markets across key hubs remain firm, with continued volatility expected. Current levels are holding at approximately $800/mt in Gibraltar and Singapore, and around $900/mt in Fujairah.

US-Iran Agreement: Impact on Commodity Markets

, , , , ,

London Commodity Brokers


Reports suggest the United States and Iran are nearing a preliminary agreement aimed at de-escalating the conflict and establishing a framework for continued negotiations. Discussions are focused on a short-form memorandum of understanding that would formally signal a cessation of hostilities and initiate a 30-day window for broader talks.

The arrangement remains conditional, with several core elements still under review. Washington is expecting a formal response from Tehran within the next 48 hours. While not yet finalised, this marks the most substantive progress toward resolution since the conflict began.

The draft framework is understood to include a temporary pause on Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, coupled with a phased easing of US sanctions and the possible release of frozen Iranian assets. Of particular relevance to commodity markets, the agreement also addresses maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, with a gradual relaxation of restrictions anticipated during the negotiation period.

Shipping flows through the strait, which have been significantly disrupted, could begin to normalise under this timeline. However, provisions remain in place for a reimposition of restrictions or renewed military action should negotiations falter.

Market reaction has been swift, with improved risk sentiment and a corresponding adjustment in energy-linked assets reflecting the prospect of returning supply flows. That said, uncertainty remains elevated given the conditional nature of the agreement and the risk of breakdown.

For commodity markets, the immediate implication is a potential easing of supply constraints across energy, fertiliser and bulk commodity chains linked to the Gulf. Nonetheless, the situation remains fluid, and pricing is likely to retain a geopolitical risk premium until a durable agreement is secured and shipping flows stabilise.

Transnet to Close North Corridor for Maintenance

, ,

South Africa’s state-owned rail operator Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) will close its coal-delivering north corridor for annual maintenance on 21 July-1 August. TFR will carry out track renewals, signalling upgrades and major infrastructure repairs, sharply curtailing coal deliveries to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT). Coal movements during the maintenance window fell to 336,000t in 2024 and 125,000t in 2025. In comparison, TFR’s average weekly deliveries to port were at 976,000t in 2024 and 1.06mn t in 2025.

Hormuz Reopens, But Markets Remain on Edge

, , , , , , , ,

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have shifted from acute disruption to fragile stabilisation, following the announcement of a proposed two-week ceasefire. While the headline has injected a degree of confidence into financial markets, the physical reality remains far more constrained. Vessel movements have not normalised, operators remain cautious, and the region continues to function under heightened risk rather than genuine stability. The situation is best characterised as a pause in escalation rather than a resolution.

The scale of disruption is significant. More than 800 vessels remain trapped across the Gulf, with an estimated 20,000 seafarers still onboard awaiting safe passage. The backlog is heavily skewed towards energy cargoes, with crude and refined product tankers forming the bulk of stranded tonnage, alongside LNG and LPG carriers. This concentration matters. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy flows, historically accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, and any sustained interruption has immediate consequences for pricing, logistics and supply chains.

Markets have responded quickly to the ceasefire announcement, with crude prices retreating sharply from recent highs as the immediate risk of a full supply shock eased. However, the physical oil market remains under strain. Exports from the Gulf have been materially reduced over recent weeks, and the process of restoring flows is neither immediate nor straightforward. Infrastructure constraints, operational delays and continued security concerns mean that even under a ceasefire, the system will take time to rebalance. This divergence between paper market reaction and physical market reality is now a defining feature of the current environment.

Gas markets face a similar dynamic. LNG cargoes remain stranded, and Asian buyers in particular are exposed to prolonged supply delays. Even if transit resumes in a limited capacity, the backlog of vessels and the hesitancy of shipowners to re-enter the region will keep the market tight in the near term. European gas prices have reacted to easing geopolitical risk, but remain sensitive to any renewed disruption or competition for alternative cargoes.

Freight and insurance markets are likely to experience the most persistent dislocation. Tanker availability has tightened significantly, and war risk premiums have risen sharply. Even with a partial reopening, shipowners will continue to price in elevated risk, and charterers should expect higher freight rates and longer lead times. This extends beyond energy markets, with dry bulk and container segments also facing indirect pressure through increased costs, rerouting and scheduling inefficiencies.

For metals and industrial commodities, the impact is more indirect but still material. Lower oil prices provide some relief from an inflationary standpoint and support broader risk sentiment, yet higher logistics costs and ongoing supply chain friction continue to weigh on physical trade. The result is a market where financial conditions appear to improve more quickly than underlying operational realities.

The coming days will be critical. The key question is not whether the Strait reopens in principle, but whether confidence returns sufficiently for normal shipping activity to resume. This will depend on the durability of the ceasefire, the willingness of shipowners and insurers to re-engage, and the outcome of ongoing diplomatic discussions aimed at securing longer-term guarantees for safe passage.

In its current form, the market is no longer pricing a worst-case scenario, but neither is it pricing normality. The geopolitical premium embedded in energy markets has narrowed, yet it remains firmly in place. Freight and insurance costs are unlikely to retrace at the same pace as crude, and physical dislocations will persist even if tensions continue to ease.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has therefore entered a transitional phase. The immediate crisis may have been contained, but the system remains under strain. For commodity markets, this is not a return to equilibrium, but a shift into a more uncertain and operationally complex environment where risk remains elevated and recovery is far from assured.

Hormuz Isn’t Fixed—It’s Just Breathing

Weekly Freight Report by Nexus Shipping

, , ,

2nd April 2026

The market remains flat overall, with a softer undertone. Pacific activity has been limited, and while tonnage has reduced, rates have largely held steady. Australia has been quiet, but Nopac has seen better grain demand, particularly ex Vancouver for first half April dates. This has tightened prompt tonnage, with vessels being absorbed into these cargoes. While driven mainly by Panamax enquiry, there has been some spillover support into the supra/ultra segment. Bunkers in Nopac are not an issue, with reliable availability in Vancouver. Looking ahead, the balance shifts, with second half April and May positions expected to lengthen as more vessels ballast in from the Far East. In SE Asia / Far East, activity appears stronger on paper than in reality. A significant portion of enquiry is price testing rather than firm demand, with many cargoes failing to progress once rate ideas are known. As a result, underlying demand feels thinner, which could start to weigh on rates. More broadly, uncertainty around bunker prices and availability continues to limit activity, with most operators only covering when required.

There were fresh signs of market activity in the Indian Ocean this week as owners became accustomed to the new reality. This has especially been seen with the increase in Oman port calls, which are paying a premium and being used as a transhipment hub for cargo interests unable to access their usual ports within the Gulf. The bunker situation has also stabilised, with supply back online, removing part of the uncertainty that had been holding many back. Further south, increasing tonnage counts in South Africa are putting some downward pressure on rates in the area. Coal prices in Indonesia and Australia have been more attractive recently, hence the lack of demand for South African product. Sentiment in the area remains cautious, with all eyes on the Middle East and how the situation develops there.

The US Gulf started the week sluggishly, with little in the way of reported activity. However as it progressed some fresh demand surfaced for the larger ships and the prompt tonnage began to clear out. This spurt of enquiry could be down to charterers wanting a clean slate for after the upcoming holidays. The Supra’s have fared better than the Handies, where a bit of fixing and failing has taken place. For the handies to pick up we need to see a material increase in woodpellet demand, but it remains to be seen if this will happen after the holiday weekend.

In the South Atlantic, tonnage is beginning to build, although not at the same pace seen last week. Out of West Africa, several of the larger fronthaul tenders have been pushed back, reducing immediate demand. However, ECSA has seen a pickup in grain activity, absorbing a number of Panamaxes and also providing support to the supramax and ultramax segments. A number of operators are opting to use their own tonnage, as volatility in bunker prices continues to limit arbitrage opportunities. As a result, vessels with bunkers on board are achieving a premium. Bunker availability remains present in key Atlantic hubs such as Gibraltar, although prices have been firming over the course of the week. Looking ahead, grain volumes from ECSA are expected to increase, which should provide underlying support to the market.

Bunker markets continued to remain firm, with prices now around USD 880 pmt in Singapore, USD 850 in Fujairah and USD 760 in Gibraltar, reflecting ongoing disruption in Middle East supply. While availability remains manageable for now, particularly in Asia, this is largely supported by existing inventories, with limited replenishment entering the market. The situation remains fragile, and continued disruption is likely to tighten supply further and keep upward pressure on prices, with widening spreads between regions already influencing refuelling strategies.

Dar es Salaam Port Hits Record Year

, , ,

The Port of Dar es Salaam has posted a record 27.7 million tonnes of cargo throughput in the 2024/25 financial year, a 15 percent rise from 23.69 million tonnes the previous year. Independent reports from the Tanzania Ports Authority and multiple industry outlets confirm the surge, driven by private-sector concessions and the $421 million Dar es Salaam Maritime Gateway Project.
Vessel turnaround times have fallen from around ten days to three, while container handling capacity has jumped 66 percent. DP World, operating berths 0–7, reported a 68 percent increase in container volumes in January 2026 compared with January 2025. The entrance channel and berths have been deepened to 14.5 metres, removing tide restrictions and allowing larger, more heavily laden vessels to call reliably.
Expansion momentum continues. The port currently operates 12 berths; a new 500-metre berth is already under construction, with feasibility work advancing on four additional ones. The masterplan targets 22 berths and 30 million tonnes per annum by 2030, supported by ongoing World Bank discussions for the next phase of concessional financing.
Complementing the dry-cargo gains, President Samia Suluhu Hassan presided over the 3 March 2026 groundbreaking of a $274 million project to build 15 new oil storage tanks. The addition will expand fuel reception capacity and cut tanker waiting times materially, reinforcing Dar es Salaam’s position as the primary energy import hub for Tanzania and its landlocked neighbours.
Rail connectivity is keeping pace. In February 2026 five new Standard Gauge Railway cargo trains were introduced to relieve quayside pressure and route containers directly to the Kwala Inland Container Depot and the Ihumwa dry port in Dodoma. The $1.4 billion TAZARA refurbishment, now under a 30-year concession, further strengthens the rail spine into Zambia’s Copperbelt.
For SADC logistics operators and commodity traders serving Zambia, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo – which routed nearly 6 million tonnes through Dar es Salaam last year, doubling its prior volume – the Central Corridor has become markedly more competitive. Lower demurrage, tighter schedules and reduced transit costs position the port as a credible alternative to Beira and Durban routes.

Shipping Markets Fall as Bunker Prices Surge

In the Far East and South East Asia, it has been a very quiet week, with significantly reduced enquiry seen across the basin. Traders are finding it very difficult to secure business across almost all commodities, largely due to bunker prices caused by a lack of supply. As a result of these costs, it has been noted that more owners are using their own vessels, even when faced with larger than expected ballasts. This has therefore reduced the number of reported fixtures, further adding to the overall quiet sentiment in the area. Looking ahead, there seems to be little hope that the market will improve in the near term; at some point buyers may become more active, but for the time being this does not appear to be on the horizon.

Activity in the Indian Ocean remained subdued, with the majority of vessels still stuck in the Gulf unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz. While governmental talks about the safe passage of certain vessels are ongoing, it remains much the same as last week where transit is not possible. There are some Indian coastal trips being fixed, however due to the scarce availability of bunkers longer haul routes are very much on the back burner. Further South, there is a large amount of congestion building in East and South African ports, where lineups are ever increasing. While some cargoes are surfacing in the market, a large disparity continues to exist between the bid and offer, with end users unwilling to commit to today’s inflated numbers when tomorrow continues to remain so uncertain.

The Mediterranean and Black Sea had a stagnant week. Steel runs from Turkey to the Continent and the usual cargoes from Egypt have provided some support to an otherwise subdued Med market. A growing number of cargo enquiries ex-Black Sea were seen in the market this week. However, rising bunker prices have discouraged some of these cargoes from firming up, with stems instead being postponed to later dates. Thus the rates have been slowly declining in the basin due to the lack of firm cargoes.

The US market has continued to weaken this week at an accelerated pace. A significant drop in enquiry has led to a growing tonnage list, putting increasing pressure on rates. The Baltic front haul rate from the USG to the Far East has fallen by almost 30% this month. Fronthaul demand remains limited, with rates continuing to decline despite the unappealing conditions in the Far East. This lack of activity is further contributing to the build-up of tonnage, adding additional downward pressure on the market.

The ECSA market has had another soft week, with reduced cargo volumes leading to a decline in rates. However, sentiment suggests the market may be bottoming out, as owners appear more confident in managing elevated bunker prices and are beginning to commit to forward cargoes. The West African market has been supported by a steady flow of ores and concentrates, with owners commanding a premium for any direction outside of the Atlantic.

Bunkers continued to remain volatile, following Brent price movements. Brent pushed higher yesterday after reports of an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest globally. This marks a clear step up in escalation, with energy infrastructure now in the crosshairs for the first time in this conflict, with Iran also targeting installations in Saudi, Qatar and the UAE. Bunkers currently sit at 1,115pmt in Singapore and 870pmt in Gibraltar further showing the regional split.
By Nexus Freight Solutions

Firm Supramax rates force East Coast India iron ore, pellet cargoes on Capesizes

, ,

Expensive freight rates for chartering Panamax and Supramax bulk vessels have forced traders with iron ore and pellet cargoes from East Coast India to China to opt for bigger Capesize ships in a rare move, sources said.

By Carina Li, Isaac Eio, Pradeep Rajan  | Platts

The East Coast India-to-China route is usually dominated by smaller bulkers given the stem sizes traded on this sector are largely 50,000-55,000 mt.

The sharp rise in hiring Supramax class ships, which are typically in the 52,000-57,000-dwt range, have seen charterers combining three 50,000-mt (plus/minus 10%) stems to ship them on a Capesize.

Time-charter rates on Supramax ships have been heard fixed around $31,000/d for a tonnage opening in Chittagong for a trip via East Coast India to China, while the voyage charter rate was heard indicated in the $20-$22/mt levels for a 55,000-mt (plus/minus 10%) iron ore cargo from Paradip to China…Full Story

Dry Bulk Market: Strong Iron Ore Demand Boosts Rates On 2020 High

, , , , , ,

The Baltic Briefing

Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the market. Earnings have lifted from sub operating cost levels under two weeks ago, to now having surged up to have the Capesize 5TC settling at $12,410. Long tonne mile cargoes coming from all regions of the Atlantic have looked to fill the void left in supply by sluggish Brazilian offerings. While Vale may have dialled down on output year to date, they were active in the market this week on Brazil to China activity. Voyage route C3 now sits at $14.91 and the Brazil to China timecharter C14 posts at $13,936. In the Pacific, all major iron ore charterers have been busy. Owners trading options have been increasingly plentiful for one of the first times this year so bid offer spreads have been widened, leading to some periods of inactivity and a wait for one side to blink. The West Australia to China C5 lifted from $5.473 on Monday to close out this week at $6.486.

Panamax
The Panamax market witnessed a substantial recovery this week, despite a lethargic week of activity in Asia and a complex market to call in the Atlantic – at least until midweek when the EC South America market exploded into action. Levels for Australian and NoPac round trips this week hovered around the mid $7,000’s mark for Kamsarmax tonnage, whilst Post panamax tonnage were commanding…Full Story