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Market Brief – Zimbabwe Lithium Policy Shift

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London Commodity News

8 April 2026

Headline

Zimbabwe Tightens Grip on Lithium Exports with Strict Beneficiation Mandate

Key Developments

  • Zimbabwe has set out stringent conditions for lifting its lithium concentrate export ban.
  • Policy direction is firmly aligned toward in-country beneficiation and value addition.
  • Exporters will face higher compliance, reporting, and capital investment requirements before any relaxation is granted.

Core Policy Measures

  • Mandatory local beneficiation commitments, including lithium sulphate plant development by 1 January 2027.
  • Introduction of a 10% export tax on lithium concentrates.
  • Requirement to declare all contained minerals and ensure full repatriation of export proceeds.
  • Obligation to publish financial statements from end-2025 onwards.
  • Establishment of:
    • Mine-level assay laboratories (within 3 months)
    • Two internationally accredited national laboratories
    • Safety, Health and Environment (SHE) departments
  • Implementation of export quotas per producer.
  • Monthly compliance reporting to a ministerial oversight committee.
  • Labour provisions including housing and NEC-aligned wages.

Market Interpretation

Zimbabwe is moving decisively to capture downstream value and reduce its role as a raw material exporter. The framework mirrors broader African resource nationalism trends, where governments are prioritising processing, tax capture, and transparency over volume exports.

The beneficiation timeline (2027) is aggressive and capital-intensive, effectively favouring:

  • Well-capitalised operators (Chinese majors, established industrial players)
  • Projects already advancing midstream processing capability

Smaller or speculative operators are likely to face significant barriers to compliance, potentially accelerating consolidation across the sector.

Market Impact

  • Short-term:
    • Continued constraint on lithium concentrate exports
    • Potential tightening of global spodumene supply flows
  • Medium-term:
    • Shift toward African-based chemical processing capacity
    • Increased cost base for Zimbabwe-origin units
  • Pricing:
    • Supportive for lithium prices at the margin, particularly if enforcement is strict
    • Premiums may emerge for jurisdictions with fewer export restrictions

Strategic Takeaway

This is not a temporary policy adjustment. Zimbabwe is setting a clear structural direction:

No beneficiation, no export.

For market participants, the implication is straightforward—future supply from Zimbabwe will be more controlled, more expensive, and increasingly tied to in-country processing commitments.

Hormuz Reopens, But Markets Remain on Edge

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Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have shifted from acute disruption to fragile stabilisation, following the announcement of a proposed two-week ceasefire. While the headline has injected a degree of confidence into financial markets, the physical reality remains far more constrained. Vessel movements have not normalised, operators remain cautious, and the region continues to function under heightened risk rather than genuine stability. The situation is best characterised as a pause in escalation rather than a resolution.

The scale of disruption is significant. More than 800 vessels remain trapped across the Gulf, with an estimated 20,000 seafarers still onboard awaiting safe passage. The backlog is heavily skewed towards energy cargoes, with crude and refined product tankers forming the bulk of stranded tonnage, alongside LNG and LPG carriers. This concentration matters. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy flows, historically accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, and any sustained interruption has immediate consequences for pricing, logistics and supply chains.

Markets have responded quickly to the ceasefire announcement, with crude prices retreating sharply from recent highs as the immediate risk of a full supply shock eased. However, the physical oil market remains under strain. Exports from the Gulf have been materially reduced over recent weeks, and the process of restoring flows is neither immediate nor straightforward. Infrastructure constraints, operational delays and continued security concerns mean that even under a ceasefire, the system will take time to rebalance. This divergence between paper market reaction and physical market reality is now a defining feature of the current environment.

Gas markets face a similar dynamic. LNG cargoes remain stranded, and Asian buyers in particular are exposed to prolonged supply delays. Even if transit resumes in a limited capacity, the backlog of vessels and the hesitancy of shipowners to re-enter the region will keep the market tight in the near term. European gas prices have reacted to easing geopolitical risk, but remain sensitive to any renewed disruption or competition for alternative cargoes.

Freight and insurance markets are likely to experience the most persistent dislocation. Tanker availability has tightened significantly, and war risk premiums have risen sharply. Even with a partial reopening, shipowners will continue to price in elevated risk, and charterers should expect higher freight rates and longer lead times. This extends beyond energy markets, with dry bulk and container segments also facing indirect pressure through increased costs, rerouting and scheduling inefficiencies.

For metals and industrial commodities, the impact is more indirect but still material. Lower oil prices provide some relief from an inflationary standpoint and support broader risk sentiment, yet higher logistics costs and ongoing supply chain friction continue to weigh on physical trade. The result is a market where financial conditions appear to improve more quickly than underlying operational realities.

The coming days will be critical. The key question is not whether the Strait reopens in principle, but whether confidence returns sufficiently for normal shipping activity to resume. This will depend on the durability of the ceasefire, the willingness of shipowners and insurers to re-engage, and the outcome of ongoing diplomatic discussions aimed at securing longer-term guarantees for safe passage.

In its current form, the market is no longer pricing a worst-case scenario, but neither is it pricing normality. The geopolitical premium embedded in energy markets has narrowed, yet it remains firmly in place. Freight and insurance costs are unlikely to retrace at the same pace as crude, and physical dislocations will persist even if tensions continue to ease.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has therefore entered a transitional phase. The immediate crisis may have been contained, but the system remains under strain. For commodity markets, this is not a return to equilibrium, but a shift into a more uncertain and operationally complex environment where risk remains elevated and recovery is far from assured.

Hormuz Isn’t Fixed—It’s Just Breathing

London Commodity News

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26th March 2026

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate market direction, driving volatility across energy and metals as uncertainty around supply disruptions and diplomatic progress remains unresolved.

Prices at 17h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: March API2 $120.10/mt ; March API4 $109.60/mt
Brent Crude: $101.90/bll; Up 4.77%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.30/mt; Down 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,416.50/mt; Down 1.44%

Coal
Energy markets extended their recovery, with oil, gas and coal all closing materially higher as participants continued to digest conflicting signals around the prospects for negotiations in the ongoing conflict. Front-month Brent crude and European gas each gained approximately 5% on the day, while coal swaps also strengthened, albeit to a slightly lesser extent.

Brent Crude
Oil markets rallied sharply, with Brent crude futures climbing more than 4% to trade above $107/bbl earlier in the session, as renewed pressure from Washington on Tehran heightened concerns over prolonged supply disruption. The latest move follows a firm warning from US President Donald Trump urging Iran to advance peace negotiations “before it is too late.” While the White House maintains that discussions are ongoing, Iran has rejected these claims and continues to set its own conditions, reinforcing uncertainty around any near-term resolution.
Supply-side risks remain acute. Reports suggest Iran is considering imposing transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside stricter clearance requirements—further complicating an already constrained shipping corridor. The situation is particularly significant given that the strait typically handles around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows.
Additional pressure is emerging from multiple fronts. Iraqi production has reportedly declined amid storage constraints, while disruptions to Russian exports—estimated at up to 40% of capacity—are tightening global supply. At the same time, military activity across the region continues, with further US deployments signalling that tensions remain elevated despite diplomatic overtures.
With ceasefire optimism fading and negotiation thresholds appearing high, oil markets remain highly sensitive to further developments, with price volatility expected to persist.

Iron Ore
Iron ore markets traded within a narrow range, supported by improving demand indicators but constrained by cautious market sentiment. Dalian futures edged higher in early trading before retreating, with the most active contract settling marginally up at 817 RMB/tonne. Spot prices followed with modest gains of 5–8 RMB/tonne, although transaction volumes remained limited as steel mills maintained a measured procurement approach.
Demand-side fundamentals continue to improve. Molten iron output has risen steadily, signalling strengthening consumption and providing underlying support to prices. On the supply side, inventory dynamics remain mixed: tightness persists in higher-grade materials such as Carajas Fines and PB Lumps, while inventories of other grades continue to build. Market sentiment, however, remains cautious. Elevated prices, coupled with uncertainty surrounding potential production cuts and long-term contract negotiations, have encouraged many participants to stay sidelined. In the near term, iron ore is expected to remain rangebound at elevated levels, with firm support on the downside and limited immediate catalysts for a breakout.

Copper
Copper prices declined alongside the broader base metals complex, as geopolitical uncertainty weighed on sentiment and prompted a more defensive positioning among traders.
Conflicting signals around US–Iran negotiations have clouded the outlook, with continued hostilities raising concerns over inflation, global growth, and industrial demand. The prolonged nature of the conflict—now approaching one month—has further contributed to market caution.
Some market participants have opted to reduce exposure entirely, preferring to wait for clearer direction. Weak downstream sentiment and earlier restocking at lower price levels have also limited buying interest, with consumers largely restricting purchases to essential demand.
Despite the near-term weakness, underlying support remains. Copper prices have declined materially over the past month, attracting renewed interest from Chinese buyers, particularly as strong export demand—especially in power infrastructure—continues to underpin consumption.
Looking ahead, copper is expected to remain volatile, with price direction largely dictated by geopolitical developments rather than fundamentals in the immediate term.

Markets remain firmly driven by geopolitical developments, with supply risks in energy and cautious sentiment in metals creating a fragmented but highly reactive trading environment. Until there is greater clarity on the direction of the Middle East conflict, volatility is likely to remain elevated across the complex.

Eskom ordered by Supreme Court of Appeal to disclose details of contracts to Afriforum.

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The Supreme Court of Appeal has delivered a clear and final ruling: Eskom must disclose all active contracts for the purchase, transport and distribution of coal and diesel to civil-rights group AfriForum. The judgment, handed down on 23 March 2026, dismisses Eskom’s appeal with costs and upholds the Gauteng High Court’s 2024 order under the Promotion of Access to Information Act.
Eskom, which spends more than R70 billion annually on coal alone, had argued that the contracts contain commercially sensitive information. The court rejected that position outright. Judge Elizabeth Baartman stated that these agreements are concluded in the public interest and that the public has a right to see them.
AfriForum is now assembling a specialist team to examine the documents in detail. The scrutiny will focus on whether prices and terms are market-related and whether procurement processes were conducted lawfully.
Eskom has confirmed it is studying the judgment and will take legal advice before proceeding. While a further appeal to the Constitutional Court remains possible, the SCA decision stands as the current position and sets a strong precedent for transparency across state-owned enterprises.
In my view, this outcome is both necessary and overdue. For too long Eskom’s procurement practices have operated with insufficient external oversight, despite their direct impact on electricity tariffs, coal-market pricing and national finances. Greater visibility into these multibillion-rand contracts will strengthen accountability, deter irregularities and ultimately benefit legitimate suppliers, traders and the South African economy. The ruling is a blunt reminder that public money demands public scrutiny.

London Commodity News

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23rd March 2026

Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: March API2 $121.00/mt ; March API4 $110.50/mt
Brent Crude: $103.42/bll Down 7.82%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $106.45/mt Up 0.09%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,120.50/mt Up 1.60%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1,896.00/mt Up 0.05%
Mn Ore South Africa (Mn42% Fe12%) _ $5.23/mtu CIF North China Down 0.38%_

_Global commodity markets saw a sharp shift in tone today, as geopolitical tensions showed early signs of easing, triggering significant moves across energy, metals, and bulk commodities.

Coal
Another volatile session saw energy markets open stronger, driven by renewed US escalation rhetoric over the weekend, with gas prices rising around 5% and lending support to coal. Sentiment shifted sharply by midday, however, as indications emerged that negotiations between the US and Iran were becoming more likely, prompting a broad reversal across markets.
Oil and gas prices fell back significantly into the close, while equity markets rallied on the improved outlook. Front-month Brent crude declined by nearly 10%, European gas dropped around 5%, and coal swaps followed suit, weakening across the curve.

Brent Crude
Oil markets led the move, with prices plunging after recent gains driven by the US–Iran conflict. Brent and WTI both fell over 14% during Monday’s session after US President Donald Trump indicated that talks with Iran had been “constructive” and confirmed a five-day pause on planned strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. The announcement eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which had been closed amid escalating hostilities. Despite the sharp correction—Brent briefly dropping below $100/bbl for the first time since mid-March—prices remain significantly elevated on the month. Earlier interventions, including strategic reserve releases and sanctions relief on Iranian and Russian crude, had done little to stabilise markets, underscoring how sensitive oil remains to geopolitical developments.

Iron Ore
Iron ore markets were firmer, with Dalian futures rising modestly and the most active contract settling at 819 RMB/tonne. Spot prices also edged higher, although trading activity remained subdued as steel mills continued to procure cautiously. On the supply side, global shipments increased slightly, while arrivals into China declined, helping to ease the previously oversupplied market. At the same time, improving blast furnace utilisation is supporting demand, lending a more constructive tone to fundamentals. However, uncertainty persists around long-term contract negotiations, keeping investors on the sidelines. In the near term, prices are expected to remain volatile but supported at elevated levels.

Copper
Copper rebounded as the easing of geopolitical risk lifted broader market sentiment. Prices rose sharply in early trading following Trump’s announcement, before paring gains amid conflicting reports from Iran. The metal, often viewed as a proxy for global economic health, had recently come under pressure due to concerns around growth and inflation stemming from the conflict. However, underlying demand signals—particularly from China—are improving, with inventories posting their largest weekly drawdown of the year. This suggests that recent price weakness has stimulated buying interest, providing a degree of support despite ongoing macro uncertainty.

Lead
Lead markets remain subdued, with prices continuing to trade at low levels. On the supply side, primary producers have shown limited willingness to sell, while secondary producers are holding firm due to cost pressures, resulting in generally thin market activity. Demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers largely purchasing only against long-term contracts and showing little appetite for spot exposure. While firm scrap costs and producer discipline are providing some downside support, seasonal demand softness and weak macro conditions are capping any upside. Prices are expected to remain rangebound at low levels in the near term.

Manganese
In contrast, the manganese complex continues to strengthen. Rising freight costs, fuel shortages in South Africa, fiscal changes in Ghana, and potential weather disruptions in Australia are all tightening supply expectations and reinforcing bullish sentiment. This has fed through to the silicomanganese market, where prices remain firm, supported by rising input costs and disciplined production. While northern Chinese output is gradually increasing, high power costs and margin pressures in the south are limiting broader supply growth. With steel demand improving seasonally and upstream cost pressures persisting, both manganese ore and alloy markets are expected to remain well supported in the short term.

Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with sentiment shifting rapidly as headlines evolve. While today’s moves suggest some easing of immediate risks, underlying supply constraints and cost pressures across several commodities continue to point to a structurally firm pricing environment.

London Commodity News

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4th March 2025

*Coal*

The upward momentum from yesterday continued into the morning, with API2 and NEWC gaining $1-$2 before weaker European gas prices pressured coal swaps, bringing them back near unchanged, with API2 slipping slightly further.

European gas prices remain highly volatile, with shorter-dated contracts down nearly 4%. Meanwhile, DES ARA markets saw modest support, while physical Newcastle remained quiet but steady.

*Brent Crude*

OPEC+ confirmed its planned April production increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first since 2022. While the group had previously cut output by 2.2 million bpd, there are indications this could be gradually reversed between April 2024 and September 2026, though OPEC+ cautioned that adjustments remain subject to market conditions. Adding to the bearish outlook, Trump suspended military aid to Ukraine and reportedly asked the Treasury to review possible Russian sanctions relief, raising speculation about increased Russian oil flows. As of 16:32 GMT, Brent for April settlement fell 1.73% to $60.94.

*Dutch TTF Gas*

Market sentiment remains cautious amid US-Ukraine tensions. Prices are also under pressure as warmer-than-normal temperatures this week slow withdrawals. However, a potential cold snap later in March could lift demand. As of this afternoon, Dutch TTF Gas is down nearly 6% at €43.08.

*Iron Ore*

Iron ore futures extended last week’s losses, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 779.5 yuan/mt, down 2.81%. Traders were moderate sellers, while steel mills maintained a low-volume, high-frequency buying approach. In Shandong and Tangshan, PB fines fell 10-15 yuan/mt from Friday’s levels.

Supply remains ample—last week, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil surged 37.7% WoW to a yearly high, even as port arrivals fell 11%. Meanwhile, China’s Two Sessions meeting and severe smog forecasts prompted Tangshan steel mills to reduce blast furnace output, potentially curbing near-term pig iron production. On SGX, 62% Fe TSI spot iron ore is at $100.81.

*Copper*

Copper prices fell Tuesday as Trump’s 25% tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico took effect, escalating trade tensions. China retaliated with higher levies on US agricultural and food products, moving both economies closer to a full-scale trade war. Despite the volatility, copper remained in a tight trading range as markets awaited further clarity. As of 17:21 GMT, LME 3-month copper was at $9,355.50.

Chinese lithium plunge has created huge discount to US prices

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Bloomberg

Lithium prices are plunging around the world, but the slump is particularly glaring in China, where the key battery metal is trading at a big discount versus the US.

After a buying frenzy sent global prices soaring though last year, they’ve since plunged as electric vehicle demand disappoints and supplies are expected to remain ample. Yet despite the broad rout, futures in the crucial Chinese market are about a third cheaper…Full Story

Evenly balanced’ risks means lower commodity prices, but robust volumes

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By Clyde Russell – Reuters

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Oct 3 (Reuters) – The heat is coming out of global commodity prices and the risks to the outlook are “evenly balanced”.

That’s the relatively downbeat assessment of the Australian government in its latest Resource and Energy Quarterly publication, released on Tuesday.

What the government forecaster in one of the world’s biggest exporters of resources is effectively saying is that while commodity volumes are holding up well, and expected to increase in coming years, the amount of money generated will slip…Full Story

Oil vs Water — Confessions of a carbon emitter

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From ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Having just returned from visiting nearly 50 countries in four months, Dr Forrest says he’s seen a paradigm shift in global thinking. Sovereign leaders, business people, politicians, financiers and technology developers have developed a “genuine thirst” for a rapid shift to green energy.

He argues Australia is perfectly placed to become a world leader in the production of green hydrogen energy. For Dr Forrest, the question is not whether green hydrogen will become the next global energy form, but who will be the first to mass-produce it?…Full Story

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