London Commodity News
8 April 2026
Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
- API2 (April): $107.25mt
- API4 (April): $105.00/mt
- Brent Crude: $94.98/bbl, down 13.03%
- SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $106.40/mt, down 0.70%
- LME 3-Month Copper: $12,681.50/mt, up 3.07%
- Chrome South African 40%–42% Cr: $319/mt CIF China
Market Overview
- Markets have moved into broad geopolitical de-escalation mode following the announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
- The sharpest reaction has come in energy, where crude has repriced lower as worst-case Hormuz disruption scenarios have been stripped out.
- Even so, the risk premium has not disappeared entirely, as shippers and refiners are still waiting for practical clarity on safe passage, routing and backlog clearance.
- Base metals have responded more selectively, with improved sentiment helping copper, while bulk markets such as iron ore remain constrained by softer underlying demand signals.
Coal Curves (LCB Data)
API2 / API4 Curve (Midday)
- API2: Firmer prompt pricing, though broader conviction across the curve remains limited.
- API4: Holding below API2, with relative weakness reflecting regional dynamics.
- Spread: Key to watch whether easing geopolitical tension feeds through into freight and begins to compress Atlantic versus export market pricing.
Trade Insight
- The ceasefire has removed the most extreme upside scenario for oil, but logistics normalisation is lagging price normalisation, which remains critical for freight-sensitive commodities.
- Energy has repriced rapidly; metals are now likely to revert to micro-driven fundamentals, particularly Chinese demand and inventory signals.
- If the ceasefire holds, the next phase shifts from crisis response to speed of physical market normalisation across shipping and trade flows.
Market Focus: Brent Crude
Brent crude has fallen sharply following confirmation of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with the market rapidly unwinding the geopolitical premium built around the Strait of Hormuz. The move reflects a reassessment of immediate supply disruption risk across one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
However, uncertainty remains. Shipping activity has yet to fully normalise, backlogs persist, and key operational details around safe passage remain unresolved. The ceasefire itself is temporary, leaving the market exposed to renewed volatility should tensions re-escalate.
As a result, while pricing has adjusted lower, a residual risk premium is likely to remain until physical flows and transit conditions return to a more stable footing.
Additional Markets
Iron Ore: Prices softened modestly, with cautious sentiment persisting across both futures and spot markets. While steel production remains supportive, subdued trading activity and elevated inventories continue to cap upside.
Copper: Copper rallied strongly, supported by improved risk sentiment and resilient physical demand indicators. However, buying remains measured, suggesting that sustained upside will require continued confirmation from inventories and real demand.
Chrome: Chrome remained broadly stable, with balanced pricing reflecting mixed availability and moderate demand. Any easing in freight costs could introduce mild downward pressure, though the near-term outlook remains steady.
Market Regime
Post-crisis repricing / Softer energy complex / Selectively firmer base metals
Closing View
The speed of the repricing across energy markets highlights how quickly geopolitical risk can unwind once de-escalation appears credible. However, the market is not yet operating under normal conditions. Energy has adjusted first, while other commodities are now reverting to underlying fundamentals.
The key question from here is not whether the risk premium has fallen, but whether physical markets—shipping, freight, and trade flows—can normalise in line with price. Until that is clear, markets are likely to remain reactive and sensitive to further developments.
Full curves, downloadable data and historical access available via LCB Intelligence.
