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LCB Market Brief – 6 May 2026

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London Commodity News

Market Snapshot (16:30 GMT)
• Brent Crude: $101.52/bbl, down 7.60% — sharply lower on improving diplomatic signals
• Coal (API2 May): $105.50/mt — weaker, tracking energy downside
• Coal (API4 May): $111.50/mt — relatively supported, though softer
• Iron Ore (SGX 62% Fe): $110.80/mt, down 0.14% — firm, with strong underlying support
• Copper (LME 3M): $13,372/mt, up 1.81% — higher, supported by sentiment and structure
• Chrome Concentrate (40–42% CIF China): $318/mt — stable, with subdued demand

What Matters Today
• Energy markets softened sharply on improving diplomatic signals around U.S.–Iran negotiations
• Oil and gas led the move lower, while bulk and base metals showed mixed resilience
• Coal tracked energy weakness, while iron ore and copper remained supported by fundamentals
• Markets remain highly headline-driven, with pricing sensitive to negotiation outcomes

Coal
Coal markets declined in line with the broader energy complex, following a sharp bearish reaction to reports that Iran is reviewing a U.S.-proposed peace framework.
Brent crude and European gas both fell significantly intraday, with losses of around 12% at the lows before recovering into the close. Despite the rebound, both markets ended materially weaker, dragging coal prices lower. API2 led declines, falling by close to $6 after trading at even lower levels earlier in the session.
Coal continues to track energy directionally, with limited independent momentum in the current environment. While underlying demand remains stable, price action is being driven almost entirely by developments in the broader energy complex.

Coal Curves
• API2: Sharply lower, reflecting Atlantic basin exposure to energy sentiment
• API4: Softer, though relatively more resilient
• Spread: Continues to reflect regional demand and freight dynamics

Trade Insight
• Markets are increasingly trading on binary geopolitical outcomes
• Coal remains a derivative of oil and gas direction in the short term
• Metals are showing resilience due to cost support and supply absorption
• Price direction across the complex hinges on credible progress in negotiations

Market Focus: Brent Crude
Oil markets fell sharply, with Brent declining below $103/bbl as optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement weighed on prices.
The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal and a response expected via regional intermediaries. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to price direction.
Despite the softer sentiment, physical flows remain constrained. The U.S. has indicated a pause in its naval escort programme, but shipping volumes through the Strait are still well below normal levels, and supply disruption persists. Inventories continue to absorb part of the shock, maintaining a degree of structural tightness.
Near-term price direction will be driven by negotiation outcomes. A confirmed agreement could trigger a sharp correction as supply returns, while any breakdown in talks would likely see a rapid rebound in prices.

Additional Markets
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices rose sharply, supported by continued destocking and absorption of previously restricted port inventories. Demand remains relatively firm, with steel production still operating at elevated levels despite some moderation in pig iron output. Rising costs and tightening margins may cap further upside, though near-term support remains intact.
Copper
Copper moved higher, holding above $13,000/t as sentiment improved. However, elevated inventories and softer demand signals—particularly in China—are limiting upside. The market remains balanced between structural support and near-term demand uncertainty, with pricing driven by both macro developments and inventory trends.
Chrome Ore
Chrome markets were broadly stable, with spot prices unchanged and futures supported by cost pressures. Post-holiday demand remains subdued, with high inventories weighing on sentiment. In the near term, the market is expected to remain sideways, balancing firm costs against cautious buying.

Market Regime
Diplomatic-driven correction / Softer energy / Supported bulk / Resilient metals

Closing View
Markets are entering a critical phase, with pricing increasingly driven by expectations around a potential diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The sharp correction in energy highlights the sensitivity of markets to shifts in perceived supply risk.
Despite this, underlying structural tightness across energy and industrial inputs remains in place, providing continued support to bulk and base metals. Until there is definitive clarity on the outcome of negotiations and the normalisation of supply flows, markets are likely to remain volatile, with price direction dictated by geopolitical developments rather than purely fundamental drivers.

London Commodity News

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10th October 2025
Commodity markets traded with a mixed tone today. Energy softened as geopolitical risk premiums eased, while LNG and iron ore prices held steady, and copper extended its breakout rally.
Coal
API2 swaps extended losses today, pressured by pronounced weakness in energy markets. European gas slipped about 1.5%, while front-month Brent crude dropped nearly 4% after the Gaza ceasefire announcement weighed on risk premiums. The physical Newcastle market was marginally softer, though NEWC swaps closed the session little changed.
Brent Crude
Oil prices declined, adding to the previous session’s 1.6% loss, as geopolitical risk premiums faded following the agreement of the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas. The deal includes a ceasefire, partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of hostages in exchange for prisoners. A smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike announced on Sunday helped temper oversupply concerns, but investors remain wary that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could weigh on demand from the world’s largest crude consumer.
Spot Brent at 16h52 BST – $63.12/bll, down 3.25%
European LNG
Dutch TTF futures slipped to EUR 32.1/MWh from EUR 33.3 on 7 October, with ample EU storage offsetting firmer demand expectations. Inventories stand at 82.9% of capacity, led by Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%. This strong position has eased winter supply concerns, though colder weather forecasts and Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure add uncertainty. Looking ahead, a projected 60% increase in global liquefaction capacity by 2030, half of which is expected from the U.S., raises the prospect of structural oversupply and sustained price pressure.
Dutch TTF Gas – 16h50 BST – €31.91/MWh, down 1.69%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures opened stronger but drifted lower before closing firmer, with the most-traded I2601 contract at CNY 795, up 1.02% day-on-day. Average hot metal production stayed rangebound, offering limited influence on pricing. Post-holiday, Liaoning concentrates remained stable at CNY 740–750/mt (66% wet basis, ex-factory, excluding tax). Domestic supply remains tight, and producers are reluctant to discount, while steel mills purchase selectively, keeping spot trade subdued. Futures strength could support local concentrate prices short term, though overall demand remains the key driver.
SGX 62% iron ore at 16h38 BST – $106.50/mt, down 0.05%
Copper (LME)
Copper broke out of its extended consolidation, advancing toward the 2024 peak near USD 11,100/mt. Analysts see support at USD 10,590 as key to maintaining the uptrend, with targets at USD 11,470 and USD 11,920 if momentum holds. In the physical market, Chinese buyers have rejected Codelco’s proposal to maintain its USD 88/mt premium on cathode deliveries, a benchmark unchanged since 2019, reflecting pushback amid strong price gains. China remains Codelco’s largest market, and the negotiation outcome could influence physical trade terms going forward.
LME 3-month copper at 16h44 BST – $10,535.50, down 3.34%
Chrome
South Africa is weighing the introduction of a 25% export tax on chrome ore to support its struggling ferrochrome sector, according to foreign media reports. The draft growth strategy outlines the tariff as a tool to keep domestic chrome prices lower, while also proposing preferential power tariffs for ferrochrome producers. The plan targets 3.5% economic growth by 2030 alongside higher fixed asset investment.
The country controls more than 70% of global chromite reserves, the key input for ferrochrome used in stainless steel. Yet escalating electricity costs have forced closures of around 14 smelters in recent years, cutting some 350,000 jobs across the supply chain and threatening as many as 250,000 more. Glencore, through its joint venture with Merafe Resources, recently announced layoffs at its Rustenburg facility, highlighting the industry’s ongoing challenges.
South African Chrome Ore (Cr2O3 40%-42%) CIF China – $282/mt
South African Chrome Ore Lump (Cr2O3 min38%) CIF China – $252.50/mt

Energy markets softened as easing geopolitical risks and firm inventories weighed on sentiment, while iron ore showed resilience on futures strength. Copper’s breakout highlighted supply-demand tightness and speculative momentum, keeping metals on firmer ground compared with energy markets.