21st April 2026
Markets remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments, with sentiment shifting rapidly as traders balance supply disruption risks against uncertain diplomatic progress. Energy continues to set the tone, while metals are taking direction from both macro signals and underlying demand.
Prices at 17h10 GMT
API2 (April): $102.00/mt
API4 (April): $105.00/mt
Brent Crude: $98.00/bbl, up 2.64%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $107.20/mt, up 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,228.50/mt, down 0.34%
LME 3-Month Lead: $1962.50 /mt down 0.61%
Coal
Energy markets rebounded sharply, driven by reports that the United States is unlikely to extend the ceasefire with Iran beyond Wednesday, raising expectations of a prolonged conflict. Front-month European gas rose by around 5.5%, while Brent crude gained close to 3% by the close.
Coal prices followed the stronger energy complex, posting broad gains across indices, with Newcastle (NEWC) swaps once again showing the most pronounced reaction.
Brent Crude
Oil prices eased after a sharp rally, as uncertainty around Iran’s participation in potential negotiations with the United States tempered bullish momentum. Brent had surged above $95/bbl following weekend tensions in the Gulf, including the seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel and renewed restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz.
While supply concerns remain elevated, mixed signals on diplomacy have capped further gains. The U.S. has indicated willingness to engage in talks, though Iranian participation remains unclear, leaving markets caught between escalation risk and the prospect of de-escalation. As a result, prices continue to reflect a partial geopolitical risk premium, with volatility driven by headline flow.
Beyond immediate price action, sustained elevated oil prices are beginning to raise broader concerns around inflation and global growth, reinforcing the sensitivity of markets to developments in the region.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices moved higher, supported by restocking demand in China ahead of the May Labour Day holiday and tightening inventories. Futures rose modestly, with stockpiles declining for a second consecutive week, providing additional support to the market.
Demand fundamentals remain firm, with stable blast furnace utilisation underpinning consumption. At the same time, emerging supply-side concerns—particularly fuel-related disruptions affecting mining activity—have added a layer of support to prices.
In the near term, iron ore is expected to remain elevated but volatile. Any release of previously restricted port inventories could introduce short-term pressure, though current demand levels continue to provide a solid floor.
Copper
Copper traded largely sideways, with the market lacking clear direction as investors awaited developments on U.S.–Iran negotiations and macroeconomic signals from the United States. LME prices held steady, while a firmer dollar limited upside momentum.
The market remains in a holding pattern, balancing geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing demand signals. In China, refined copper output reached record levels, indicating continued supply strength despite earlier expectations of production cuts.
Until clearer signals emerge from both geopolitical and macro fronts, copper is likely to remain rangebound, with sentiment shifting in response to external developments.
Lead
Lead prices edged higher, supported by modest buying interest, although overall market activity remained subdued. Spot demand continues to be soft, particularly from battery producers, while rising energy costs are influencing production dynamics.
Despite limited trading activity, expectations of higher prices are beginning to filter into the market, with potential implications for upcoming contract negotiations. However, in the absence of stronger demand, gains are likely to remain gradual.
Across the complex, markets remain caught between competing forces of geopolitical risk and cautious optimism around potential negotiations. Energy continues to drive broader sentiment, with metals following suit but supported by underlying demand. Until there is greater clarity on both diplomatic progress and supply conditions, volatility is likely to persist.
