7th April 2026
Markets opened under heightened tension, with energy once again at the centre of attention as geopolitical risk intensified. Oil surged on escalating military action and firm deadlines around the Strait of Hormuz, while bulk and base metals remained more measured, balancing supportive demand signals against persistent macro uncertainty.
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: April API2 – $112/mt ; April API4 – $108.50/mt
Brent Crude: $110.66/bll; Up 0.81%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $107.50/mt; Down 0.23%
LME 3-Month Copper: $12,319.50/mt; Down 0.32%
LME 3-Month Lead: _$1,944/mt; Up 0.57%
________________________________________
Coal
Energy markets were broadly steady through the morning session following the long weekend, with participants largely waiting for clarity on the apparent ultimatum issued by the U.S. to Iran regarding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
European gas prices strengthened into the afternoon, supported by reports suggesting that the likelihood of a near-term deal may be diminishing. This move also provided some support to coal prices, which recovered modestly, although both markets ultimately remained close to unchanged on the day.
________________________________________
Brent Crude
Brent crude pushed back above $110 per barrel, driven by escalating rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump and renewed military action targeting Iranian infrastructure. The latest strikes, including activity near Kharg Island—Iran’s primary export hub—have significantly heightened concerns over global supply disruption, even as officials maintain that energy assets were not directly targeted. The market continues to price in worst-case scenarios, including prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability.
Despite a marginal recovery in tanker traffic, flows through Hormuz remain well below normal levels, reinforcing fears of sustained supply tightness. Diplomatic efforts have so far yielded little progress, with Iran rejecting ceasefire proposals and tensions continuing to escalate. The situation has created a sharp divergence in pricing dynamics, with spot premiums surging as refiners scramble to secure alternative supply, particularly in Asia and Europe.
Looking ahead, volatility is likely to remain elevated. With geopolitical risk premiums firmly embedded and the potential for further escalation still present, oil markets are expected to stay well supported, with price direction largely dictated by developments in the region.
________________________________________
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices softened modestly after early gains, with futures closing slightly lower as market participants remained cautious. Spot prices also edged down, with trading activity limited as steel mills adopted a wait-and-see approach. While traders showed some willingness to hold offers firm, overall liquidity in the physical market remained subdued.
Fundamentally, the market continues to face opposing forces. Short-term supply tightness, reflected in reduced port arrivals, has provided some support, while ongoing blast furnace operations are maintaining steady demand. However, elevated port inventories continue to weigh on sentiment, limiting upside potential and dampening trading activity.
Additional pressure has come from macro and policy developments, including anti-dumping measures on Chinese steel exports and broader concerns around global demand. While infrastructure initiatives in China may provide some support, the market currently lacks a strong catalyst for a sustained move higher. In the near term, iron ore is expected to remain rangebound with a slightly weaker bias.
________________________________________
Copper
Copper prices edged higher, supported by improving demand indicators from China, including falling inventories and firm import premiums. The decline in SHFE stocks and resilience in the Yangshan premium point to strengthening physical demand, particularly as the market approaches the seasonal peak consumption period.
However, gains were capped by broader macro pressures. Rising oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar have weighed on sentiment across the base metals complex, reinforcing copper’s role as a macro-sensitive asset. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has also limited risk appetite, preventing a more sustained rally despite supportive fundamentals.
In the near term, copper is likely to trade within a narrow range, supported by improving demand but constrained by macro headwinds. Clearer direction will depend on both geopolitical developments and the trajectory of global economic conditions.
________________________________________
Lead
Lead markets remain under pressure, with ample supply and weak demand combining to limit upside. While inventories of lead ingots have continued to decline in some regions, increased output from both primary and secondary smelters, along with steady imports, has kept overall supply comfortable.
On the demand side, the market has entered a seasonal lull, with lead-acid battery producers showing limited purchasing interest. This has resulted in weak spot activity and heightened concerns around potential inventory builds following the holiday period.
As a result, lead prices are expected to remain rangebound with a softer tone. Without a meaningful pickup in downstream demand, the market is likely to struggle to generate upward momentum in the near term.
________________________________________
Across the commodity complex, divergence remains evident. Energy markets continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments, while metals are increasingly influenced by demand signals and macro conditions. Until greater clarity emerges on both fronts, markets are likely to remain volatile, reactive, and driven by headline risk rather than fundamental conviction.
________________________________________
