21st November 2025
Commodity markets traded under mixed pressure today, with crude extending its decline, gas markets turning more volatile into winter, and industrial metals responding to shifting macro signals. Sentiment remained driven by geopolitics, weather risk, and uncertainty around upcoming economic data.
Coal
There was more pronounced weakness across the complex today, with parts of the API2 curve falling over $2, alongside sharp declines in European gas and oil. Short-dated European gas dropped nearly 3%, while front-month Brent crude fell close to 2%. The physical Newcastle market remained quiet and showed reduced support, contributing to further softness in NEWC swaps.
Brent Crude
Crude prices extended their decline on expectations of rising oversupply, easing geopolitical risk, and a firmer U.S. dollar. Reports of progress toward a U.S.-supported Russia-Ukraine peace framework added further downside pressure as a ceasefire could bring more Russian supply back into the market. Near-term direction now rests on today’s flash PMIs across major economies and remarks from ECB President Lagarde. Weak numbers may fuel recession concerns, while stronger data could bolster the dollar and intensify pressure on crude. Limited support comes from expectations of Chinese housing stimulus and the reopening of the U.S. government.
Spot Brent at 16h37 GMT – $62.16/bll, Down 1.99%
European LNG
Gas markets are turning more volatile as winter begins. Europe still holds near-record storage, but colder forecasts for late November and early December and emerging logistical delays in LNG cargo movements have lifted risk premia. TTF had softened through October on mild weather and steady LNG inflows, but the outlook is tightening as colder conditions threaten to accelerate withdrawals and highlight how quickly the storage buffer can narrow. Delays caused by congestion and weather disruptions at loading points have also underscored the fragility of cargo rotation. As a result, TTF is trading with increased volatility despite strong inventories.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h40 GMT – €30.23/MWh, Down 1.48%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures weakened, with I2601 down 0.32% to 788.5 yuan. Steel mill maintenance kept overall output high while consumption only edged up, leaving inventories elevated on a yearly basis. Sentiment remains cautious given ongoing concerns about inventory pressure. Hot-metal output has held up better than expected, limiting further downside, but the broader fundamentals remain soft. Prices are likely to stay under pressure and move within a choppy range.
_Spot SGX 62% Fe at 15h37 GMT – $104.15/mt, Down 0.10%_
*Copper (LME)*
Copper fell to a two-week low as broader risk-off sentiment—driven by tech-sector weakness, crypto-market volatility, and uncertainty over a December U.S. rate cut—weighed on industrial metals. The delayed September U.S. jobs report offered mixed signals, with strong hiring but a higher jobless rate, leaving the Fed divided. A strong dollar added further pressure. Chinese demand remains subdued, reflected in the Yangshan premium sliding to $33/t from above $100/t in May.
LME 3-month copper at $16h30 GMT – $10,750.00/mt, Up 0.05%
Lead
The coming week will see reduced U.S. trading activity due to Thanksgiving, with attention on U.S. retail sales and the October core PCE index. Fed officials remain split on December policy after mixed employment data. LME lead inventories surged by over 40,000 mt this week, pushing stocks to a three-month high and triggering six consecutive daily declines in prices. Consumption remains weak, offering little support. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,960–2,020/mt next week.
In China, SHFE lead faces tight regional supply but muted battery demand. Procurement remains inconsistent, and destocking is limited. Prices are expected to remain subdued, with the main SHFE contract forecast at 17,000–17,400 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 17,000–17,250 yuan/mt, with primary smelters holding firm on offers due to low stocks, while secondary lead smelters maintain tight discounts amid squeezed margins.
LME 3-month lead at 16h30 GMT – $1988.50/mt, Down 1.14%
Chrome
South African 40–42% concentrate prices fell to $270–274/mt, with both futures and spot markets under pressure from weak downstream demand and high port inventories. Steel tender prices dipped slightly, prompting some inquiry activity, but overall buying interest remains limited. Zimbabwean ore offers are also squeezing South African pricing room. Despite high planned ferrochrome output providing some support, the imbalance between oversupply and weak demand persists. The market remains in a cautious, wait-and-see mode.
Chrome Ore South African（Cr2O3 40-42%）- $272/mt CIF China
Chrome Lump South African（Cr2O3 38%Min）- $245.50/mt CIF China
With macro indicators, currency strength, and seasonal fundamentals all in play, markets are likely to remain sensitive to incoming data and policy signals. Volatility across energy and metals is set to persist as traders reassess positioning heading into year-end.
