26th November 2025
Commodity markets were steady to mixed today, with energy prices attempting a modest rebound while metals showed selective strength driven by supply dynamics and shifting macro expectations. Geopolitical developments, particularly around renewed Russia–Ukraine peace discussions, continued to dominate sentiment across oil, gas and broader risk assets.
Coal
Prices across the energy complex were steadier today, though the pattern remained similar to yesterday: API2 saw pockets of buying interest while NEWC swaps continued to drift lower. European gas eased slightly again, with front-end contracts down just over 0.5%, and oil prices held broadly stable. Softer bids in the physical Newcastle market added further downside pressure to the NEWC swaps.
Brent Crude
Oil prices edged slightly higher on Wednesday after falling to a one-month low, though the move offered little indication of a sustained recovery. The broader tone remained cautious as traders assessed an increasingly oversupplied outlook and closely monitored diplomatic developments between Russia and Ukraine. Gains were driven mainly by soft inventory signals and short-covering, but analysts noted these moves remain fragile with the wider outlook still skewed to the downside.
Geopolitical uncertainty deepened after President Trump instructed U.S. representatives to hold separate talks with both Moscow and Kyiv. Ukrainian officials suggested President Zelenskiy may travel to Washington in the coming days to advance discussions, though several key issues remain unresolved. Western allies have also tightened sanctions on Russia, while its crude shipments to India are projected to fall to a three-year low in December. On the supply side, API data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, countering expectations of a build. Some support for prices has come from rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with softer retail spending and easing inflation bolstering the case for monetary policy easing.
Spot Brent at 16h40 GMT – $61.75/bll, Down 0.08%
European LNG
European natural gas futures stayed below €30/MWh amid reports that Ukraine had agreed to the terms of a revised peace plan with Russia, though negotiations are ongoing and Moscow’s position remains unclear. Diplomatic activity in Geneva and Abu Dhabi continues to influence sentiment, with a potential settlement carrying implications for global energy flows ahead of new LNG capacity due next year. Europe’s gas balance remains relatively stable thanks to strong LNG and Norwegian pipeline inflows and expectations of milder early-December temperatures, easing concerns over winter drawdowns. Dutch TTF was down 0.7% in early trading at €29.18/MWh. Storage remains just under 81%—below last year’s level but adequate if temperatures hold above seasonal norms. Analysts warned that Europe’s relative price weakness versus Asia may eventually divert LNG cargoes eastward if the gap widens further.
Spot Dutch TTF at 16h30 GMT – €29.32/MWh, Down 0.06%
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures remained stable, with the I2601 contract closing at 797 yuan, up 0.19%. Trading interest stayed moderate, with mills mainly buying dips while traders sold at market levels. Sentiment was subdued as hot-metal output began to soften heading into year-end amid furnace maintenance and environmental controls. With more mills scheduling maintenance, hot-metal production is expected to continue easing, adding pressure to already weakening fundamentals. Iron ore prices remain elevated but under strain, and attention now turns to upcoming data on apparent steel consumption and inventory trends.
Spot SGX 62% Fe at 16h22 GMT – $104.80/mt, Down 0.10%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices rose to their highest level in nearly a month, supported by growing expectations of a December U.S. rate cut and continued outflows from LME warehouses into U.S. stocks. Tightening supply conditions, low inventories and ongoing trade distortions have increased upside risks, with analysts noting structural tightness despite a cathode surplus this year.
Nicholas Snowdon highlighted that while the global copper cathode market will show a surplus of 350,000–400,000 tonnes in 2025, the copper concentrate market faces a 500,000-tonne deficit that will persist into next year. He added that LME prices may need to rise further to draw material back from the U.S., which now holds 70% of global cathode stocks—potentially rising to 90% by early 2026. LME-registered inventories are already down 42% this year due to ongoing outflows to Comex.
LME 3-month copper at 16h33 GMT – $10,979/mt, Up 1.48%
As diplomatic negotiations progress and winter fundamentals evolve, markets remain sensitive to shifts in demand outlooks, inventory signals and policy expectations. Energy benchmarks face a fragile and uncertain path, while metals markets continue to balance tightening supply trends against uneven macro conditions heading into year-end.
